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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

ryan1234 said:
I mean technically we still have a good 2 days for things to trend farther south. From the beginning of this winter I have always said if we get a storm it's going to sneak up on us at the last minute. Right now I am just looking at trends which keep pushing the ice threat south. Again, I don't think I'd be sleeping on this storm quite yet. I know how much you want your 33 thunder rain. But what about 29 and thunder ZR? Lol.
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Who knows... maybe if we’re lucky.. a 29 degree raging thundersleet
 
Nam was definitely showing the lesser snow totals for this area 2 days out. Euro was a disaster showing big snow totals up till early this morning when all other models had already hinted at lesser snow amounts. 5 years ago when the euro showed big totals a day out it was a lock. Haven’t seen the latest run but previous run of the nam showing much less snow then the gfs and euro so I’m not betting against it.
Just wanted to add I was comparing today’s system with Wednesday into Thursday’s system.
 
32/23 at 1am Thursday for my location, according to the NAM.
 
NAM
Has been super consistent with the ZR footprint, around the typical climo favored areas
 
The ICON would be pretty significant as temps stay around 27-30 degrees for the northern upstate through the Piedmont and several hours of light rain in the morning before more moderate precip comes in
 
Even if the icon was right that’s heavy rain right around 32 degrees for the upstate. Tree top glaze at best verbatim
 
At this point I’ll take a 10th of an inch of ice in the trees. Better then this cold rain


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JLL1973 said:
Memphis says they will issue a winter storm watch in the morning for the midsouth.
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Found this paragraph interesting from their AFD. They seem to have an idea with how this is going to play out with the current lay of the land, if you will.

On Wednesday, a new low pressure system will start to develop over
the western Gulf of Mexico and move rapidly northeast. This new
storm system will bring more winter weather to the region for
Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. Another round of
significant snow accumulation is expected with some ice
accumulation possible over southern and eastern sections of the
Mid-South. Will hold off on issuing a Winter Storm Watch until
this current winter weather event has ended but one will likely be
needed by Tuesday morning.
 
Thing I’m taking away from this is how things are getting colder and colder. ICON really had light rain for a good portion of the day Tuesday until heavier returns come through at night. Also the 925’s were between -1 and -4 degrees C so while I’m sure 850’s would be scorching that should help some of the latent heat and cool off the rain in the atmosphere before getting to the ground.
 
Wut?

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