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Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

NCSNOW said:
And if does happen at 1pm, you want be able to get to our house from all the down tree limbs.
This is a weather board discussion/ hobby. Not official prediction, endorsement,saying its gonna happen,not happen etc.

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I have a better chance at my gf getting a positive pregnancy test Right now then that happening, once again I think the RGEM/CMC is to cold with this setup, NAM12km already looks more realistic and even it looks to bold atm
 
Glad to report Greensboro still stuck 34-35 ,Since Thursday afternoon and honestky I cant recall one second thats its not been precipitating, drizzle,fog minimum.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I have a better chance at my gf getting a positive pregnancy test Right now then that happening, once again I think the RGEM/CMC is to cold with this setup, NAM12km already looks more realistic and even it looks to bold atm
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How can you say that about a NAM long range shot .. when last storm the CAD trended stronger last minute? I mean you gotta at least throw the possibility in that they could maybe be onto something .. i dont know obviously It’s reasonable to say something that crazy won’t happen. But also all of Texas is under a winter storm warning and some are seeing blizzard conditions ... anything is possible
 
I believe also the NAM was too warm long range for the last set up as well ... if we get in 3km NAM wheel house and there’s no budge .. I’m with you on this one FRO YO
 
Too many speaking in absolutes here. Anything is possible with the type of snowpack and cold air just to our North. Still plenty of time for this to trend to more rain or more ice. Will say the RGEM and Canadian are generally okay with CAD situations. I think they may be painting a good picture of where the ice could be. Way too early to know totals or anything like that. But temps have continued trending colder and colder with plenty of time for them to continue that trend.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, the tradeoff to a stronger/more south TPV is less CAD, VA is literally getting so lucky right now, this is a trend I’d be happy with around hour 144, not 72, sigh View attachment 75208
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Still looks like a slopfeast here. It has been almost a week since the sun has been out so I am getting grumpy. Looks like I will need to watch dew points and see how much cold we can lock in. Last weeks ice we lucked out on. it was very dry most of the time we were in the 20s. Then most of the heavier rain was at 31 or 32 so it didn't tear things up.
 
When your loosing your forcing for descent up in Canada (less ridging up there) due to a slowing TPV (which models have been to progressive with the whole time) , you gonna effectively shove the track further south but also lose the strength of the CAD high, this means climo areas favored more likely (along the escarpment/foothills/northern piedmont (roxboro) 1FFBD004-779F-4D37-AD2F-85E06B109894.pngC1A6F948-00E4-4B27-B426-4F94892DF471.png4466A1B2-AFFA-4067-9B00-6E2E83C3F1BC.png50A9DB7E-C72A-458D-A350-38A11FE8E7D0.png
 
Nomanslandva said:
Still looks like a slopfeast here. It has been almost a week since the sun has been out so I am getting grumpy. Looks like I will need to watch dew points and see how much cold we can lock in. Last weeks ice we lucked out on. it was very dry most of the time we were in the 20s. Then most of the heavier rain was at 31 or 32 so it didn't tear things up.
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Yea your close enough to the TPV where it can impact your 925/850/700mb level temps and perhaps keep it more IP (maybe a front end burst of snow)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @smast16 @Poimen @NCSNOW id watch the upcoming NAM runs given what y’all just went through, y’all are definitely favored in this sort of setup, I’ll freeze my ass of in a 34 and rain again and hope for a rumble of thunder
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Yeah I definitely want to see what the 3k NAM shows when it gets in range later today/tomorrow. Hey, snuggle up next to that gf and stay warm ;)
 
iGRXY said:
Too many speaking in absolutes here. Anything is possible with the type of snowpack and cold air just to our North. Still plenty of time for this to trend to more rain or more ice. Will say the RGEM and Canadian are generally okay with CAD situations. I think they may be painting a good picture of where the ice could be. Way too early to know totals or anything like that. But temps have continued trending colder and colder with plenty of time for them to continue that trend.
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Agreed. The snowpack is much more extensive this go around than it was during last weeks event. Not saying the Southern Piedmont/Upstate will come into play but man those temps to our north are crazy cold. And those dewpoints are as well. Wouldn't sleep on this one yet.
 
The Nam qpf is generally always to light past 24-36 hrs, since its tinkering. Anyway gonna track. Not sold one way or the other yet. No doubt ice will occur. System looks wet. Hp influence from tpv will be head scratcher for a day or two. Then well see how she shakes out.

My property is a sponge swamp. Wet as its ever been. Going on 5 straight days of temps 30-35 and moisture.
 
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