Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[NickyBGuarantee]

Check out long range HRRR and NAM 3km in regards to temps at the same point as the second storm approaches.. interesting things to noteare the temperature differences especially where there is snow and ice on the ground .. much colder ... could translate to good cold transfer into our CAD down the line

 

[Chazwin]

Was the icon even this consistent with this past storm with how it showed a ice storm ... I swear it was a couple cycles then it ditched the idea

I will say as far temperatures go, the ICON from the end of last week is going to be closer on temperatures today and tomorrow than other modeling from late last week was. Some of those GFS and Euro runs then were wanting to shoot us up well into the 60s tomorrow. The NWS is going with 53 now in CLT and I’m seeing some forecasts keeping us in the 40s now

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol GFS is gonna trend to a VA winter storm while we suck, not surprised!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Congrats VA, it’s literally the TPV being more south and we would have cashed in, what a damn shame I’m so triggered

 

[Ethan80963]

GFS

 

[iGRXY]

Will say that CAD is potentially interesting with snowpack and legit arctic air for it to bring down. Not out of the realm of possibilities for this to continue trending colder. The RGEM may have a good idea on the overall areas affected with ice. Likely not those extreme numbers.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Congrats VA, it’s literally the TPV being more south and we would have cashed in, what a damn shame I’m so triggered View attachment 75203

Wow we keep this up and we could be in the sleet!

 

[Dunkman]

Congrats VA, it’s literally the TPV being more south and we would have cashed in, what a damn shame I’m so triggered View attachment 75203

Hey if we can get another day of the snow line moving south like that and some of us (ok me) would be in business.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow we keep this up and we could be in the sleet!

This trend actually weakens the CAD high (slower/stronger TPV) awesome trend for VA tho. This is a epic kick in the nuts

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Congrats VA, it’s literally the TPV being more south and we would have cashed in, what a damn shame I’m so triggered View attachment 75203

GFS actually looks better here

 

[Metwannabe]

Congrats VA, it’s literally the TPV being more south and we would have cashed in, what a damn shame I’m so triggered View attachment 75203

Literally the rn/sn line sinks south while the frozen precip line doesn't... just basically narrows the transition zone. Sad really...

 

[Metwannabe]

FWIW last 3 NWS blend of models

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Literally the rn/sn line sinks south while the frozen precip line doesn't... just basically narrows the transition zone. Sad really...

Yep, the tradeoff to a stronger/more south TPV is less CAD, VA is literally getting so lucky right now, this is a trend I’d be happy with around hour 144, not 72, sigh

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

FWIW last 3 NWS blend of models

View attachment 75206

Seen this movie before

 

[smast16]

FWIW last 3 NWS blend of models

View attachment 75206

Guess I'll top off the gas can. Still have 5 Gallons of Kerosene.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC looks like it’s gonna double double down per H5 lol

 

[lexxnchloe]

Its good the low is further south

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

CMC looks like it’s gonna double double down per H5 lol

Yep it is. Colder at the surface with a stronger HP to our north.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

If this is happening at 1 in the afternoon on Thursday I will give everyone free popsicles!

 

[smast16]

If this is happening at 1 in the afternoon on Thursday I will give everyone free popsicles!

As long as it's not the yellow "popsicles" from your yard....