Wintry Feb 17-19 Smastsmasher Snow/Ice

[iGRXY]

Understandable for the GFS not to have a strong CAD signal. It’s ASS at picking up low level cold

 

[Gsoweenie]

Weather channel calling for cold rain in Greensboro on Thursday. Accuweather, saying 4-8 inches of snow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wudge becoming a legit wedge

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wudge becoming a legit wedge View attachment 75108

Okay the fact that globals are picking up on ur like this is concerning

 

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Wudge becoming a legit wedge View attachment 75108

Is this the first suggestion of temps going down during the event? All previous runs I've seen implied going up.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So it’s ICON/CMC/RGEM/GFS vs UKMET/v16 so far, UKMET didn’t show much at all

 

[Webberweather53]

6z ICON doubling down

 

[Ethan80963]

6z GFS coming in colder too

 

[FallsLake]

RAH:
The sensible weather related to the pattern described above will
feature another widespread, soaking rain that will end from west to
east Thu night-early Fri. And with the Arctic high of favorable
strength and position initially Wed night-Thu, it appears
increasingly likely that another freezing rain event will occur Thu
morning over the climatologically-favored nw Piedmont. After a
possible 4-8 hour period of (Advisory-type) freezing rain, it would
become self-limiting and change over to a cold rain with the nwwd
retreat of the wet bulb freezing line through the mid-late morning
to midday hours, as the Arctic high rapidly weakens and retreats nwd
into QC. Strong stability within the cold air damming regime will be
resistant to erosion, however, so high temperatures on Thu will
likely be much cooler than national blended guidance, likely ranging
from mid-upr 30s over the nrn Piedmont to 40s over the remainder of
the Piedmont, to 50s over the Sandhills and srn-cntl Coastal Plain.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

RGEM doubling down as well

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Webberweather53]

NWS Blend of models FRAM has performed fairly well this winter and it's way more reasonable. No reason to post ZR QPF maps that never verify

 

[packfan98]

It looked like all of the models ticked colder on the latest runs unfortunately. I also think that this system has the potential to be worse in the more traditional blue ridge escarpment and foothills area than the last storm.

 

[Webberweather53]

This trend on NWP backing up the vortex into SE Canada is weakening our CAD for this setup

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

NWS Blend of models FRAM has performed fairly well this winter and it's way more reasonable. No reason to post ZR QPF maps that never verify

View attachment 75148

I’m not a huge fan of it because it gives equal weight to models such as the GFS and euro that typically do very poorly with CAD situations.

 

[Webberweather53]

I’m not a huge fan of it because it gives equal weight to models such as the GFS and euro that typically do very poorly with CAD situations.

It also gives weight to models like the RGEM that are cold biased. It's done very well in these storms overall this winter, those crazy QPF ZR maps aren't going to verify.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

It also gives weight to models like the RGEM that are cold biased. It's done very well in these storms overall this winter, those crazy QPF ZR maps aren't going to verify.

RGEM did quite well with the last CAD event a few days ago, maybe even slightly underdone in some areas.

 

[Webberweather53]

RGEM did quite well with the last CAD event a few days ago, maybe even slightly underdone in some areas.

RGEM did well the day of the event but it's cold biased at this range 2-3 days out, almost always is & this case doesn't look any different.