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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

iGRXY said:
For NEGA and western Upstate folks, you want this thing to continue to dig and close off little further west. Granted even now with what the GFS shows and the rates, I would not be surprised if some of what it is showing as rain isn't snow.
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The soundings for N GA are pretty close to snow, only being 38 at the surface but below at 925 even. Given its a deform band setting up that could enhance rates enough to make it through and it's not even set in yet so we will see as we get closer. 2 more ticks and it'd be a good storm for N GA, upstate SC, and most of NC
 
iGRXY said:
For NEGA and western Upstate folks, you want this thing to continue to dig and close off little further west. Granted even now with what the GFS shows and the rates, I would not be surprised if some of what it is showing as rain isn't snow.
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Ukmet closing it off too far west... still lots of uncertainty on the track here. I wouldn't rule anybody out of the game.
 
The good thing is it's looking like a bowling ball cutoff scenario is likely at this point. Bad news is there were be extreme winners and lots of losers in this set up, and the winners won't encompass a very large area. No way to know who yet... but at least it's looking increasingly likely that someone in the Southeast will get a paste bomb.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The soundings for N GA are pretty close to snow, only being 38 at the surface but below at 925 even. Given its a deform band setting up that could enhance rates enough to make it through and it's not even set in yet so we will see as we get closer. 2 more ticks and it'd be a good storm for N GA, upstate SC, and most of NC
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N Ga or just NE Ga?
 
I've seen way too many of these GFS paste bombs with marginal 850s that only center NC. Just look back at the archive threads from the past few years. I would expect the wave to trend warmer due to the cut-off of solid cold air sourcing from Canada. If we do see something, I would bet we would see a simmer down of the amplification.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I've seen way too many of these GFS paste bombs with marginal 850s that only center NC. Just look back at the archive threads from the past few years. I would expect the wave to trend warmer due to the cut-off of solid cold air sourcing from Canada. If we do see something, I would bet we would see a simmer down of the amplification.
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Yep, that’s my biggest concern, In these modeled setups we typically lose the amplification and lose the cold air aloft
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, that’s my biggest concern, In these modeled setups we typically lose the amplification and lose the cold air aloft
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It’s typically our most marginal set ups that can end up producing the goods but it’s nice to see at least these marginal hits 100 hours out.. almost certainly means a NAMing is coming
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, that’s my biggest concern, In these modeled setups we typically lose the amplification and lose the cold air aloft
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It looks like the Piedmont will see snow, but it will be rate driven. The icon has RDU below freezing during the heavy returns but temps spike when rates relent. But this is looking like it's going to be the best shot of snow for RDU for the season.

RDU during heavy returns:
1675787942318.png

RDU after when rates relent
1675787811089.png
 
packfan98 said:
my suspicion is that it ends back up in northern Virginia.
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packfan - it sounds like you may be infected with the fearcasting disease. It’s an affliction that causes forecasts to be made out of fear instead of sound judgement. It is commonly found on weather boards among members with a long history of being let down by late model adjustments, particularly during winter. Although a serious disease, it’s not quite as severe as its cousin, the bittercasting disease

I guess that UKMet run from yesterday wasn’t quite so crazy after all huh
 
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griteater said:
packfan - it sounds like you may be infected with the fearcasting disease. It’s an affliction that causes forecasts to be made out of fear instead of sound judgement. It is commonly found on weather boards among members with a long history of being let down by late model adjustments, particularly during winter. Although a serious disease, it’s not quite as severe as it’s cousin, the bittercasting disease

I guess that UKMet run from yesterday wasn’t quite so crazy after all huh
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No fear here. Just sharing my thoughts. Others might have these weather afflictions, but my immunity has built up after following every model run for 20 years.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
@BIG FROSTY licking his chops while everyone else will be licking wounds
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You had to go and jinks it for me didn't ya!!! ? Not licking any chops around here, way to far out for that! lol The models will change half a dozen times between now and Saturday. But at least we got something encouraging to look at for a few hours anyway!
 
Broken024 said:
I don't know if this is good or not. Someone smarter than me can explain.View attachment 132297
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Not sure about upper air and surface temps, but it looks close. I would say, being five days out, that just having a low off our coast is a good sign. Just need some basic agreement right now.
 
These types of setups, as modeled, are always very fickle and rate driven. Usually a very narrow strip of accumulation with a few lucky lollipops strewn in. Areas outside that strip will see flakes fall, but if the rates aren’t there, little or nothing will accumulate. I remember a similar setup (maybe March 2010 shown below?) when I was home for spring break and local mets were calling for 2-5 inches. I watched it snow for about 3 hours and it never stuck at my house. This setup as modeled would be even more marginal. This would probably be a radar watching/ nowcasting type of event, if it were to play out.
1675789838551.gif
 
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