Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

[rburrel2]

Ukmet has charlotte at 28/25 at 7am Sunday morning with precip just starting to fall. GSP is 30/28 and .05 of liquid has already fallen. Verbatim it's solid freezing rain hit for the upstate and moving in to NC. Way too warm aloft for sleet or snow, as depicted.

And as depicted the 12z ukmet is one of the quickest solutions to shift the CAD high out of place, and we still get a decent storm.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Ukmet has charlotte at 28/25 at 7am Sunday morning with precip just starting to fall. GSP is 30/28 and .05 of liquid has already fallen. Verbatim it's solid freezing rain hit for the upstate and moving in to NC. Way too warm aloft for sleet or snow, as depicted.

And as depicted the 12z ukmet is one of the quickest solutions to shift the CAD high out of place, and we still get a decent storm.

How about Columbia SC? What would it take for more cold air to move further south.

 

[smast16]

Hard to see how not much sleet

Verbatim -The snow is coming anafrontal and honestly the DGZ is drying out by the time the midlevels are supportive of snow. Plus This setup at 12Z is more insitu than classic damming as the low level feed from the NE is shutting off just as the precip is arriving.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Dang these ens means when precip is falling is pretty solid, both ens means have CLT at 29-30F sun morning with ZR

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

GEFS getting juiced up.

View attachment 131831

Yeah I like the higher qpf totals closer to the NC/SC coast.

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[CaryWx]

Verbatim -The snow is coming anafrontal and honestly the DGZ is drying out by the time the midlevels are supportive of snow. Plus This setup at 12Z is more insitu than classic damming as the low level feed from the NE is shutting off just as the precip is arriving.

Thanks for explaining smast

 

[rburrel2]

How about Columbia SC? What would it take for more cold air to move further south.

Places on the fringes of CAD like atlanta/augusta/Columbia could definitely see some freezing rain early Sunday morning since the CAD was already established. These spots would be the quickest to flip to rain on Sunday though. (still so early though, any scenario is possible).

 

[griteater]

Here is the UKMet for hours 120 to 168...

 

[mrdaddyman]

Here is the UKMet for hours 120 to 168...

Nice storm track but not cold enough. All cold rain outside of the mountains. It's a start and it's just one model though.

 

[mrdaddyman]

GEPS picking up a little steam.

 

[Webberweather53]

Nice to see we're still on track for an in-situ CAD event this weekend. The Triad area tends to get hit the hardest in these kinds of setups.

 

[iGRXY]

Really deep cold air with this setup, even with an exiting high this could be a serious ice storm threat.

 

[Snownut]

Really deep cold air with this setup, even with an exiting high this could be a serious ice storm threat.

I'm wondering if this would be strong enough to get I to NE GA?

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[Drizzle Snizzle]

I'm wondering if this would be strong enough to get I to NE GA?

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or maybe NE AL like the big ice/sleet storm of Jan 2005 ?

 

[iGRXY]

I still think we need to speed up the s/w and try to get this where the High is still at least near eastern New England and rely on in-situ on the back end

 

[iGRXY]

 

[SD]

Gfs was close to sneaking snow into the CLT/GSO/RDU corridor late Saturday night into early Sunday before the S/SE flow around 875 flippped it to ip/zr

 

[iGRXY]

I like it a lot

 

[accu35]

chase time

 

[NCSNOW]

Will ns be enough to ignite ss. 1040 hp coming in behind it