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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Gefs is interesting


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Ukmet would be a March 2009 type hammer job for the same locations if it wasn't a touch too warm at the surface. If we got a 5h low like it depicts I'd imagine there would be more snow accumulation under the heaviest bands. It's showing -4 850s and -2 925 temps in a lot of locations and depicting them around 36-37 at the surface with rain.
 
HKY1994 said:
Gefs is interesting


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A few ensembles skewing this a bit .. but in terms of trends if we want to get some snow out of this I could certainly see these trends being favorable. If we can get a good bowling ball upper low set up over us we can get cold enough air up too along with higher rates to be able to overcome these boundary layer temps .. long way to go here but it’s interesting to be able to get a trend like this as we close in on 100 hours
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
A few ensembles skewing this a bit .. but in terms of trends if we want to get some snow out of this I could certainly see these trends being favorable. If we can get a good bowling ball upper low set up over us we can get cold enough air up too along with higher rates to be able to overcome these boundary layer temps .. long way to go here but it’s interesting to be able to get a trend like this as we close in on 100 hours
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There’s a few good members this run
 
short range models are coming tomorrow for this weekend event . Can a mod start a thread?
 
rburrel2 said:
Ukmet would be a March 2009 type hammer job for the same locations if it wasn't a touch too warm at the surface. If we got a 5h low like it depicts I'd imagine there would be more snow accumulation under the heaviest bands. It's showing -4 850s and -2 925 temps in a lot of locations and depicting them around 36-37 at the surface with rain.
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Yeah, realistically that’s likely 32-33 with heavy snow.
 
metwannabe said:
Honestly couple more ticks and we might just thread this needle and time something just right
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I hope your right. I haven't been paying much attention to this one but it looks promising if Lucy doesn't yank the ?. Seems to be the theme this year.
 
The best hail Mary play we have on the play call sheet is via way of upper level wound up low type deal, cause its the only way to generate the Cold we need. Gonna need the rates and we can maybe luck up and continue the streak of never being completely shutout for a winter. Next 24-36 hours will tell the tale if this is legit or unicorns. It has legs imo.

My biggest caution is the surface reflection on the Euro and Canadian need to come on board. The ULL needs a spike of energy from the SS or somewhere
 
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The GEFS and GFS are mostly by themselves here w/ big snow totals into the coastal plain + piedmont. The snowfall means are gonna be heavily skewed by one or two big members. There's really not a ton of support for snow outside the mountains & foothills, likely because it's too warm.

Really need the upper low to completely close off about a day sooner than currently modeled and tilt neutral-negative & slide across the I-20 corridor to give folks in NC a good hit. We're a long ways off from that atm.

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metwannabe said:
BL issues obviously and still need some help, lots of help but it's better than nothing for now. Still a shot someone sees snow fall at least if we can get this ull to come to fruition. ULL always wildcards
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And a very good shot at thundersnow with a strong ULL as depicted.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS and GFS are mostly by themselves here w/ big snow totals into the coastal plain + piedmont. The snowfall means are gonna be heavily skewed by one or two big members. There's really not a ton of support for snow outside the mountains & foothills, likely because it's too warm.

Really need the upper low to completely close off about a day sooner than currently modeled and tilt neutral-negative & slide across the I-20 corridor to give folks in NC a good hit. We're a long ways off from that atm.

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Agreed but again we had that silly GFS run a few days ago that sent a cutoff low barreling through south GA. It’s interesting to see things trending back towards that southerly solution. It’s got about as much of a shot to verify as my Bucs do to win an SB next year without TB12 but hey…


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If this trough really pinches off like the GFS/Ukmet/Navgem/ICON show then the mountains could get absolutely plastered. foot plus totals would be possible. Non-mountain locations aren't out of the game but will need a strong/cold 5h low and heavy rates to overcome boundary layer issues.

Let's hope the 12z runs today show some consensus on the cutting off bowling ball scenario and we can work from there.

If it comes to fruition I'll be booking a cabin in Highlands, NC for the weekend. 4,000 asl shouldn't have any boundary layer concerns if we get the bowling ball in the right spot.
 
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