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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Webberweather53 said:
It’s not going to have any effect on our weather until mid March at the very earliest. The raging +AO in the troposphere is not conducive for downward propagation of the circulation anomalies in the stratosphere that need to occur to have an impact on our sensible weather. If anything, this SSWE is making the pattern worse in February thru its teleconnection to the tropics
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Amazing April will deliver! Cold rain Miller A coastals!!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CFSv2 looks good here. Too bad it takes until about the 3rd week of March to get a legit -EPO and -NAO.

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Seems to be a new normal for us the last few years. Warmer winters and cooler springs with less severe storms east of the mountains while Dixie ally gets numerous tornado outbreaks.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The CFSv2 looks good here. Too bad it takes until about the 3rd week of March to get a legit -EPO and -NAO.

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Fantastic...normally I would be ready for warmer weather in March but any below normal weather will be welcome. Summer going to come no matter what.
 
SD said:
There's a mountain thread it's been dead. Fire away in there maybe some of the locals could help out
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Nothing to report it's been a bummer up here too. Unless ur rich and live or can afford beech.
 
GFS has been advertising a decent setup in the 300ish hr timeframe for the last 3 or 4 runs now.. that appears to be our next window.
 
rburrel2 said:
GFS has been advertising a decent setup in the 300ish hr timeframe for the last 3 or 4 runs now.. that appears to be our next window.
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This gfs run is a good example of perfect wave timing and goes back to the discussion about the poor timing we had over the weekend. Even in a sea of warm if you time waves perfect during the short cold shots we have you can get something but the chance of getting it right aren't great come hour 0 unfortunately.

On the positive side there's at least some evidence that we might see the SER get squished back during the 2/17-21 time period so at least the op gfs isn't showing something when say the eps mean is roasting. Again though it's a 24-48 hour window in all likelihood. At this lead time my money would be on something similar to what we had last week where we flatten the top of the SER and gradient then temp pattern from N to S. I'd be licking my chops if I were in the OKC to RIC corridor even that might be on the south end
 
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SD said:
This gfs run is a good example of perfect wave timing and goes back to the discussion about the poor timing we had over the weekend. Even in a sea of warm if you time waves perfect during the short cold shots we have you can get something but the chance of getting it right aren't great come hour 0 unfortunately.

On the positive side there's at least some evidence that we might see the SER get squished back during the 2/17-21 time period so at least the op gfs isn't showing something when say the eps mean is roasting. Again though it's a 24-48 hour window in all likelihood. At this lead time my money would be on something similar to what we had last week where we flatten the top of the SER and gradient then temp pattern from N to S. I'd be licking my chops if I were in the OKC to RIC corridor even that might be on the south end
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Yep, but it's at least a window of opportunity, and still during peak climo. Maybe we can get lucky this time.
 
@SD Do we know if the lawn thread from.last year is gone? I was trying to recover a picture of my yard from last year and cant seem to find that thread
 
Shaggy said:
@SD Do we know if the lawn thread from.last year is gone? I was trying to recover a picture of my yard from last year and cant seem to find that thread
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severestorm said:
Not really...

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Yes, really. Don't need the icon surface temp map to see that. Anywhere above the 900mb level would be at freezing or colder. Probably a paste job even down to 2000' as depicted. Also icon was just getting the storm wound up on that last frame... lots more to come with lowering snow levels.

Also 18z GFS took a huge jump in this direction, but pinches off the trough a little further north... winds up crushing central, VA out to Delaware.
 
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rburrel2 said:
Yes, really. Don't need the icon surface temp map to see that. Anywhere above the 900mb level would be at freezing or colder. Probably a paste job even down to 2000' as depicted. Also icon was just getting the storm wound up on that last frame... lots more to come with lowering snow levels.
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You think Gatlinburg will do ok? Looks like models are showing a decent hit
 
My rule of thumb is you need at least -3 850's(in non-mountain locations) to have a chance of snow at the surface when there's no source of low level cold air. Might need a little colder than that towards the coastal plain where the elevation is a little lower.

That rule generally holds true assuming you get heavy rates, imo.
Here are two examples in my backyard where there was no low level cold air source and we were purely relying on top down cooling.

Feb 6, 20211.75-232.2Miller a with -3 850s but warm boundary layer, started off as rain and 39 wetbulb, heavy rates flipped it to snow. Hrrr nailed transition and precip maxima, nam was way too warm at surface and too quick with warm nose and too dry.


February 8, 20203.25 inches all snow31.5-32.2all snow, started at 10:15am ended around 1:45pmhi res models showed a dusting to an inch, and warm surface temps. globals showed nothing in the medium range. - 4 850's and -2 925mb. temps rose to 33.5 as it ended. beautiful tree sticking snow
 
accu35 said:
You think Gatlinburg will do ok? Looks like models are showing a decent hit
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They're definitely still in the game for a thumping, but too early to call and unlikely to happen. An Icon like scenario would crush Gatlinburg. Most of the modeling still has this as just a fast moving trough though with minimal snow on the backside,(but some decent flow snow), would probably be too warm for flow snow to accumulate in downtown Gatlinburg though.
 
rburrel2 said:
Yes, really. Don't need the icon surface temp map to see that. Anywhere above the 900mb level would be at freezing or colder. Probably a paste job even down to 2000' as depicted. Also icon was just getting the storm wound up on that last frame... lots more to come with lowering snow levels.

Also 18z GFS took a huge jump in this direction, but pinches off the trough a little further north... winds up crushing central, VA out to Delaware.
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Sounds like wish-casting. Yea, you get snow when rates are high, snow's a exothermic process which means there needs to be a cold air mass to feed cold air from the north. You see the low temps in AVL in the ICON? That's cooling from high precipitation, but will spike above freezing when rates decrease. Yea there's going to be a northwest flow snowfall, but it's not going to be a "crush job".

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severestorm said:
Sounds like wish-casting. Yea, you get snow when rates are high, snow's a exothermic process which means there needs to be a cold air mass to feed cold air from the north. You see the low temps in AVL in the ICON? That's cooling from high precipitation, but will spike above freezing when rates decrease. Yea there's going to be a northwest flow snowfall, but it's not going to be a "crush job".

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Sure, I'm wishcasting for snow in a place where I don't live. You got me! Also, no where did I say it's going to be a crush job. I said, as depicted by the 18z icon, it would be a crush job for the mountains. That's not really debatable, but feel free to keep trying if you want. I won't spend any more time on it.
 
rburrel2 said:
They're definitely still in the game for a thumping, but too early to call and unlikely to happen. An Icon like scenario would crush Gatlinburg. Most of the modeling still has this as just a fast moving trough though with minimal snow on the backside,(but some decent flow snow), would probably be too warm for flow snow to accumulate in downtown Gatlinburg though.
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Thanks, as long I can see couple inches im fine. May ride up newfound gap
 
rburrel2 said:
Sure, I'm wishcasting for snow in a place where I don't live. You got me! Also, no where did I say it's going to be a crush job. I said, as depicted by the 18z icon, it would be a crush job for the mountains. That's not really debatable, but feel free to keep trying if you want. I won't spend any more time on it.
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rburrel2 said:
Major crush job for the mountains with that look though.
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