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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

rburrel2 said:
looks like the 00z CMCE had a stronger storm signal.View attachment 131801View attachment 131802
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Roughly 14/22 had some degree of an icing event centered around hr 156 or Sunday morning
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Maybe the GFS is struggling with it but the CAD is strong but nothing epic. ATL comfortably above freezing. On the bright side, most of North Georgia, and the western Carolinas stays around normal, maybe slightly above a few days, and a few days below. No mega torch by any means.

When I was at college at Emory in the late 90s, we would get a couple of solid ice storms a year. I can’t remember the last one now and I don’t miss them.

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ATLwxfan said:
Maybe the GFS is struggling with it but the CAD is strong but nothing epic. ATL comfortably above freezing. On the bright side, most of North Georgia, and the western Carolinas stays around normal, maybe slightly above a few days, and a few days below. No mega torch by any means.

When I was at college at Emory in the late 90s, we would get a couple of solid ice storms a year. I can’t remember the last one now and I don’t miss them.

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The source region the day before we get any moisture in the area. It's under doing the CAD.
 
metwannabe said:
For NC folks, jmho but around US 1 and east need a lot of help with this one.
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Dont want no ice storm no how lol.....biggest waste of cold and moisture there is. However I assume as we get closer the trend will be colder as the models figure it out, they always do when big cad ice storms are in the offering.
 
06z Icon is really fast with the our wave. Also a little more energy at the base and better detachment from the northern stream. This looks really good, imo. Not sure if it's going to dig enough for precip to blossom or not, but the timing with the CAD high would be perfect. Look how much slower the 00z Euro is with the pacific trough, yuck.Screen Shot 2023-01-30 at 9.10.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-01-30 at 9.07.23 AM.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Dont want no ice storm no how lol.....biggest waste of cold and moisture there is. However I assume as we get closer the trend will be colder as the models figure it out, they always do when big cad ice storms are in the offering.
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I'll pass on glazing. Take a sleet storm though but doesn't seem to be in the cards
 
Downeastnc said:
Dont want no ice storm no how lol.....biggest waste of cold and moisture there is. However I assume as we get closer the trend will be colder as the models figure it out, they always do when big cad ice storms are in the offering.
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Totally agree with this, it's not just cliché to say models struggle with very cold shallow arctic airmasses especially globals.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EC 3 run trend. Slower vortex and better energy trend. Can’t ask for much moreView attachment 131812
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One things for sure this winter, and seemingly in this pattern, we always find a way to be wet. Maybe that trend will continue next weekend but with a nice strong cad in place at just the right time.

The 50/50 creeping South with the coldest air in the hemisphere in SE Canada has my attention. Will we get a storm, or will we get a harmless progressive wave float by to our south?
 
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