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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

ATLwxfan said:
I appreciate the maps but it seems we’ve had a rip roaring pac jet all winter.


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Yep.

You have a Southern Stream Vorticity that will slowly traverse through the south towards the Downwind side of quickly moving compressed Polar Vortex. It merely trailing along a frontal boundary with the only source of moisture flowing from the WSW . The Southern Stream Energy is unable to interact with the Polar Vortex, so the squashed heigh fields are inhibiting precipitation from developing in the cold regions. The upstream Ridge builds over the Southern Shortwave. Then the vorticity is shunted SE and gets strung out over SE FL. There needs to be a significant change in the PV speed, orientation, and amplification, and I don't see that happening with a storm barreling into the West Coast.

This Shortwave gets pinched off on the 00z GFS. Maybe it waits for the next trough, but then the cold air is gone. The only areas that may see snow are interior, mountainous regions of the MA.
 
Still a long way to go to get storm however. Need the TPV to slow down and not lift out so fast. Also need the wave coming out of the west to not get tugged by the N/S and allow the wave to dig otherwise it’s a mute point
 
Yeah it produced some ice in NE GA, parts of upstate SC and SW/W NC
c2c0bb8637799ca9ac00414b3f24aa91.gif


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The most important thing is to continue to trend things favorably and keep a storm signal which we have at this range. It is still 7 days away and you don’t want to see a storm right now yet. Overrunning potentials are known to trend to more moisture the closer you get as long as you keep trends favorable
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 131765
Ughhhh those are great changes. Taller ridge going up out west with a wave that is digging more coming out of the west. 50/50 region took more steps to being better as well. This is positive if you want a storm
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Go 6-12 hours forward. LOL. I wouldn't even call that pseudo 50/50 Low. The Western Ridge instantly collapses. And the scenario relies on the Southern Stream Vortex from the first system closing-off, and retrograding around Florida until the next trough pulls it up the East Coast. But don't let me rain on your parade.

gfs_z500aNorm_namer_fh162-180.gif


o_O
 
Tornadocane said:
Go 6-12 hours forward. LOL. I wouldn't even call that pseudo 50/50 Low. The Western Ridge instantly collapses. And the scenario relies on the Southern Stream Vortex from the first system closing-off, and retrograding around Florida until the next trough pulls it up the East Coast. But don't let me rain on your parade.

View attachment 131773


o_O
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Why are we expecting a perfect run at 156 hours on an Operational lmaooo ???? It’s about TRENDING better right now. But let me not rain on your parade
 
Tornadocane said:
Go 6-12 hours forward. LOL. I wouldn't even call that pseudo 50/50 Low. The Western Ridge instantly collapses. And the scenario relies on the Southern Stream Vortex from the first system closing-off, and retrograding around Florida until the next trough pulls it up the East Coast. But don't let me rain on your parade.

View attachment 131773


o_O
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You don't need western ridging to get CAD.


North America NCEPR1 z500a NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png

NCEPR1 MSLPa NC Miller B Winter Storms (1948-2019).png
 
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