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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

packfan98 said:
Where’s the precip going to come from? Everything looks anemic at the times we are cold enough.
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Need the energy coming out of the NW to dig like the CMC. The GFS doesn't do that. I am okay with that right now. First thing you want to see is a deepening 50/50 low to help slow the progression of the N/S and lock a seriously strong HP in place with the coldest air available in the perfect position. I always say that you want to be absolutely sure you have the cold air in place to score. You can always coun't on more ridging or amplification of waves because that tends to be the trend in the shorter range these days. I tend to bet more on WAA and more amplified and faster systems to verify vs cold air verifying. Right now I want to make sure we have a CAD dome locked in because any WAA that is thrown over it will ring out any moisture available and that is a much easier way to score.
 
JHS said:
Very little precip and that high is gone. We may be losing it now.
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Not really. It’s one operational model run 7 days out.

Even with the GFS’s known biases to erode CAD too quickly (because of the non local mixing scheme in the model), it still produces ice in the western Piedmont.

Considering how bleak this looked this morning before the 12z suite showed up, we’re not losing anything

Stay level headed ?
 
11/22 in the Canadian suite support an icing event next weekend
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My rule of thumb is if we have cold air established and especially if we are using CAD to get the job done and just need to worry about getting a storm to show up, I will take that 10/10x. We may not get anything other than a cold dry few days. But we have a wave dropping down out of the Pacific Northwest and are just having timing delays with a very cold and well established airmass in place with 7 days to go. To me that is like being up 3 TDs at halftime. Considering we almost always need the cold air to be around to score, take that as a win that we have it available at least. We do have work to do however. We need a nice strong wave to enter faster and need the Western ridge to spike behind it to help the wave dig SE. Also, need the 50/50 to continue to deepen and slow to a crawl and help lock in a 1040+ HP. Need stream separation and get the energy to really dig south and drive overrunning.
 
iGRXY said:
My rule of thumb is if we have cold air established and especially if we are using CAD to get the job done and just need to worry about getting a storm to show up, I will take that 10/10x. We may not get anything other than a cold dry few days. But we have a wave dropping down out of the Pacific Northwest and are just having timing delays with a very cold and well established airmass in place with 7 days to go. To me that is like being up 3 TDs at halftime. Considering we almost always need the cold air to be around to score, take that as a win that we have it available at least. We do have work to do however. We need a nice strong wave to enter faster and need the Western ridge to spike behind it to help the wave dig SE. Also, need the 50/50 to continue to deepen and slow to a crawl and help lock in a 1040+ HP. Need stream separation and get the energy to really dig south and drive overrunning.
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Sounds like a lot of "needs"
 
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