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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

This is one of those rare situations where even a crappy high location way offshore can still easily get the job done & yield significant icing, particularly in the western piedmont + Blue Ridge Escarpment regions (near-west of I-85) of the Carolinas.

The air mass immediately upstream of us is just a beast & won't erode anywhere near as easily as some of the globals suggest
 
iGRXY said:
Why are we expecting a perfect run at 156 hours on an Operational lmaooo ???? It’s about TRENDING better right now. But let me not rain on your parade
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Webberweather53 said:
You don't need western ridging to get CAD.


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It's called threading the needle. Usually, there's a 50/50 Low that holds the cold air in place for 24-36 hours. I remember some quick-hitting miracles that dumped 6-18" of wet snow on me in NJ and PA in 8-10 hours. It melts real fast. The area that has a slight chance of decent snow is around Appalachian Mountains from NC to PA. I guess we'll see what happens.

It's possible that I'm trolling the board cause I'm Floridian. That might the issue.
 
Tornadocane said:
It's called threading the needle. Usually, there's a 50/50 Low that holds the cold air in place for 24-36 hours. I remember some quick-hitting miracles that dumped 6-18" of wet snow on me in NJ and PA in 8-10 hours. It melts real fast. The area that has a slight chance of decent snow is around Appalachian Mountains from NC to PA. I guess we'll see what happens.

It's possible that I'm trolling the board cause I'm Floridian. That might the issue.
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This isn't really a "threading the needle type setup" nor is it one where folks are gonna see a lot of snow outside the mountains.

This is more of a stick a trough anywhere east of the Rockies & south of I-80 next weekend to generate W-SW flow aloft over top a retreating, but deep and unusually cold arctic air mass, and you have icing potential in CAD favored areas of the Carolinas, VA, & maybe NE GA.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is one of those rare situations where even a crappy high location way offshore can still easily get the job done & yield significant icing, particularly in the western piedmont + Blue Ridge Escarpment regions (near-west of I-85) of the Carolinas.

The air mass immediately upstream of us is just a beast & won't erode anywhere near as easily as some of the globals suggest
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Globals erode typical climo CAD too fast and underperform the strength of it. This is record breaking cold. As in the coldest air in the northern hemisphere is not only on our side of the blobs bits it’s smack dab in our source region. All you need is a semblance of some energy along the boundary and you’ll get overrunning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is one of those rare situations where even a crappy high location way offshore can still easily get the job done & yield significant icing, particularly in the western piedmont + Blue Ridge Escarpment regions (near-west of I-85) of the Carolinas.

The air mass immediately upstream of us is just a beast & won't erode anywhere near as easily as some of the globals suggest
Click to expand...

I was just about to say that this looks like just the climo CAD areas as usual. East of that is likely out of this one.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I was just about to say that this looks like just the climo CAD areas as usual. East of that is likely out of this one.
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Slow/dig the 50-50 low a little more like we have been the past few days & this may be a different story, but it absolutely looks better back towards more climo favored areas of the Triad than the Triangle. Most likely going to be a freezing rain issue (if anything)
 
Things I know about CAD:
1. Globals suck with it.
2. If you establish that you’ll get CAD, globals erode it too quickly and slide HP out too fast.
3. Is always 3-7 degrees colder
4. In-situ gets the job done a lot more than people want to admit.

And this is just you general winter airmass. The thing we’re looking at is coldest air possible to be our source region.
 
Love the trends I'm seeing on the GEFS & GEPS here. This certainly is starting to get that typical medium range feel of a good CAD event, where the globals start to (finally) pick it up & the 50-50 low consistently slows down/digs. The difference here of course is this particular 50-50 low is an absolute beast compared to what we're normally accustomed to seeing. Just need it to dig and slow a little more still the next few days & then we could be talking about something really substantial as opposed to a minor/nuisance event
 
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