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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Wish I had something nice to say about what I was seeing in the extended range (into March) this morning. Can't think of anything really.

Add 20 days onto Feb 10th and that might be when something positive shows up (March 1-5 ish).
And in all honestly it’s more likely to be a ? outbreak
 
Wish I had something nice to say about what I was seeing in the extended range (into March) this morning. Can't think of anything really.

Add 20 days onto Feb 10th and that might be when something positive shows up (March 1-5 ish).
That would be our last shot. Usually, our chances of big storms range from ~Dec 5 to March 5th. Of course, there's always exceptions but this is the time range for (possible) big SE winter storms.
 
Temperatures continue to steadily fall during the daytime
tomorrow, with temps falling below zero along the coast during
the afternoon hours and wind chills in the -20s. Temps near -20
with wind chills around -40 expected across northern areas
during this timeframe.

Temperatures continue to fall tomorrow night as the cold
becomes downright dangerous. The center of the polar vortex is
expected to cross the area late tomorrow evening and shortly
after midnight, with temperatures dropping through after
midnight.

An unusual phenomena for our area is possible tomorrow night,
with guidance indicating that the tropopause could dip below the
peak of Mount Washington tomorrow night. While extremely rare,
the impact of this is that winds are likely to increase during
the overnight as the the wind becomes more compressed through
the lowest levels of the atmosphere.
Combined with the bitterly
cold temperatures, wind chill values likely fall to as low as
-60 across northern areas, and -40 to -45 along the coastline.
Although unofficial, from the records we have been able to
gather, the coldest wind chill in Portland since 1948 was -43
degrees in 1971, so we are nearing wind chills values that most
have not seen in their lifetime.


this is a message from the NWS in Gray. The troposphere might dip below the summit of Mt Washington. The stratosphere is literally going to be kissing the ground! That’s how wild this arctic blast is for the ne

 
I wonder how well the I -95 hear island corridor from dc to Boston helps protect us from the cold. The Appalachian mountains run from sw to ne combined with the cities along I-95 being right near em we got a nice wall. Maybe I’m crazy but I theorize it does weaken those odd cold blasts from the ne. You can see the cold air hung up by DC actually rn.
 
Temperatures continue to steadily fall during the daytime
tomorrow, with temps falling below zero along the coast during
the afternoon hours and wind chills in the -20s. Temps near -20
with wind chills around -40 expected across northern areas
during this timeframe.

Temperatures continue to fall tomorrow night as the cold
becomes downright dangerous. The center of the polar vortex is
expected to cross the area late tomorrow evening and shortly
after midnight, with temperatures dropping through after
midnight.

An unusual phenomena for our area is possible tomorrow night,
with guidance indicating that the tropopause could dip below the
peak of Mount Washington tomorrow night. While extremely rare,
the impact of this is that winds are likely to increase during
the overnight as the the wind becomes more compressed through
the lowest levels of the atmosphere.
Combined with the bitterly
cold temperatures, wind chill values likely fall to as low as
-60 across northern areas, and -40 to -45 along the coastline.
Although unofficial, from the records we have been able to
gather, the coldest wind chill in Portland since 1948 was -43
degrees in 1971, so we are nearing wind chills values that most
have not seen in their lifetime.


this is a message from the NWS in Gray. The troposphere might dip below the summit of Mt Washington. The stratosphere is literally going to be kissing the ground! That’s how wild this arctic blast is for the ne


This is Mt. Washington's nws forecast. Never seen anything like it Screenshot_20230203_093701_Chrome.jpg
 
I wonder how well the I -95 hear island corridor from dc to Boston helps protect us from the cold. The Appalachian mountains run from sw to ne combined with the cities along I-95 being right near em we got a nice wall. Maybe I’m crazy but I theorize it does weaken those odd cold blasts from the ne. You can see the cold air hung up by DC actually rn.
I’ve never really thought about that, but it does make sense… especially with there being no snow pack in those areas.
 
I’ve never really thought about that, but it does make sense… especially with there being no snow pack in those areas.
Yeah, nyc has skyscrapers nearly 1800 feet tall and despite being at sea level is only 40-50 miles away from elevations of nearly 2000 feet. It’s something I always wondered about. I’d love to see more studies on how built environments change weather. We have changed the earths landscape drastically , would be curious to see the impact . One known impact was the loss of farmland to forest cooled the Deep South for 81-10 normals.
 
Yeah, nyc has skyscrapers nearly 1800 feet tall and despite being at sea level is only 40-50 miles away from elevations of nearly 2000 feet. It’s something I always wondered about.
I don’t think the height of the skyscrapers would have any effect.., at least this far away,.. maybe locations adjacent to them. I’m more inclined to believe that the effects of the urban heat island would modify a cold airmass downstream from it. I did notice that most locations around the Carolinas right now have winds out of the NW… so I’m not sure that we’re really tapping into the airmass over the northeast yet
 
Next week we start to bloom

View attachment 132066

Hilton Head looks nice next week...80's.

View attachment 132067

Wow…I’m ready for this. If it ain’t gonna snow then let’s get on with the show. What are the odds we can get the pac jet to chill a bit and have some warm and dry for a change? Hopefully we get that shift in March.


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Next week we start to bloom

View attachment 132066

Hilton Head looks nice next week...80's.

View attachment 132067
We'd do Ag a big favor by going into the teens tonight and staying below 50 through Tuesday then getting a clean front late week and getting back to near average to hold green up back as much as possible. Going full green up in Feb isn't going to end well
 
I wonder how well the I -95 hear island corridor from dc to Boston helps protect us from the cold. The Appalachian mountains run from sw to ne combined with the cities along I-95 being right near em we got a nice wall. Maybe I’m crazy but I theorize it does weaken those odd cold blasts from the ne. You can see the cold air hung up by DC actually rn.
Yeah its fallen from 38/22 to 28/7 the last several hours at IAD. 19-23 along the Northern Blue Ridge right now.
 
Temperatures continue to steadily fall during the daytime
tomorrow, with temps falling below zero along the coast during
the afternoon hours and wind chills in the -20s. Temps near -20
with wind chills around -40 expected across northern areas
during this timeframe.

Temperatures continue to fall tomorrow night as the cold
becomes downright dangerous. The center of the polar vortex is
expected to cross the area late tomorrow evening and shortly
after midnight, with temperatures dropping through after
midnight.

An unusual phenomena for our area is possible tomorrow night,
with guidance indicating that the tropopause could dip below the
peak of Mount Washington tomorrow night. While extremely rare,
the impact of this is that winds are likely to increase during
the overnight as the the wind becomes more compressed through
the lowest levels of the atmosphere.
Combined with the bitterly
cold temperatures, wind chill values likely fall to as low as
-60 across northern areas, and -40 to -45 along the coastline.
Although unofficial, from the records we have been able to
gather, the coldest wind chill in Portland since 1948 was -43
degrees in 1971, so we are nearing wind chills values that most
have not seen in their lifetime.


this is a message from the NWS in Gray. The troposphere might dip below the summit of Mt Washington. The stratosphere is literally going to be kissing the ground! That’s how wild this arctic blast is for the ne


Wow that's incredible. And yet almost none of this is plunging south. MBY is only forecast to get down to 22, just a run of the mill passage for early Feb.
 
It's not terrible for D7-11 and the euro has hinted at something similar. I think even if we got a decent upper low or gasp an upper low+coastal sfc low we are going to have massive BL issues and have to cool from the top down
CMC had a similar evolution but shows how easy it is to just get a transient cold trough push through and no low development .. ??‍♂️ we got nothing to lose who cares
 
CMC had a similar evolution but shows how easy it is to just get a transient cold trough push through and no low development .. ??‍♂️ we got nothing to lose who cares
Yeah kind of depends on what you are looking for at this point. Getting some flakes in the air maybe whiten the mulch and tint the ground this is at least worth watching over the next week. Getting multiple inches of snow and shutting down the town for a few days this ain't that
 
Yeah kind of depends on what you are looking for at this point. Getting some flakes in the air maybe whiten the mulch and tint the ground this is at least worth watching over the next week. Getting multiple inches of snow and shutting down the town for a few days this ain't that
Exactly. I just want to see some flakes or some sleet pellets just to say I didn't get blanked for the 2nd time in the last 41 years.
 
Ahh yes, another day 7-10 "threat". Those have worked out pretty well this winter.

We’ve had fewer fantasy storms than we typically do. We will enjoy the next six hours despite the bitter dose of reality you continue to expose us to.

A widespread 1-2 incher would be just fabulous if only in my dreams.


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Long range GEFS which looked absolutely bleak at this time has switched to having a fairly significant trough at the same time as we close in closer in time. Yeah in general we will end up seeing red anomalies over the south by months end but we do get these breaks of possibility where cold enough air reaches us and gives us a shot at something. An overwhelming ridge in the east and trough in the west and an almost complete flip given time. Although these troughs are in and out sort of deals not long lasting 5941C640-1E8C-40B6-A135-57DF8F2B741F.jpegDF2AFBDE-63C6-4AD4-B29E-9839D0C640CA.jpeg
 
1676138400-Q0xpeHI3YA8.png
 
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