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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

Ukmet has charlotte at 28/25 at 7am Sunday morning with precip just starting to fall. GSP is 30/28 and .05 of liquid has already fallen. Verbatim it's solid freezing rain hit for the upstate and moving in to NC. Way too warm aloft for sleet or snow, as depicted.

And as depicted the 12z ukmet is one of the quickest solutions to shift the CAD high out of place, and we still get a decent storm.
 
rburrel2 said:
Ukmet has charlotte at 28/25 at 7am Sunday morning with precip just starting to fall. GSP is 30/28 and .05 of liquid has already fallen. Verbatim it's solid freezing rain hit for the upstate and moving in to NC. Way too warm aloft for sleet or snow, as depicted.

And as depicted the 12z ukmet is one of the quickest solutions to shift the CAD high out of place, and we still get a decent storm.
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How about Columbia SC? What would it take for more cold air to move further south.
 
smast16 said:
Verbatim -The snow is coming anafrontal and honestly the DGZ is drying out by the time the midlevels are supportive of snow. Plus This setup at 12Z is more insitu than classic damming as the low level feed from the NE is shutting off just as the precip is arriving.
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Thanks for explaining smast
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
How about Columbia SC? What would it take for more cold air to move further south.
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Places on the fringes of CAD like atlanta/augusta/Columbia could definitely see some freezing rain early Sunday morning since the CAD was already established. These spots would be the quickest to flip to rain on Sunday though. (still so early though, any scenario is possible).
 
Here is the UKMet for hours 120 to 168...

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ATLwxfan said:
At some point we run out of time for trends.


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Pretty much there if you are looking for anything more than some freezing drizzle. The late Friday and Saturday wave has no room to amp with the cheese grater in the NE so it's sheared and south need it about 24 hours slower. The late weekend system is so northern stream dominant now it's just a front with the potential for some freezing drizzle associate with the return flow and maybe a little lift from the higher elevations, need more southern wave faster, stronger with more phasing (unless you wanted a pure ice storm). We couldn't have timed these waves any worse but them are the breaks
 
We will have a stretch of some cold days and a couple extremely cold days at least. Don't be surprised if we get a NW shift in precip as is typical with overrunning, but I wouldn't expect much, yet.
 
TBH, cmc ensemble has shown more support for this system than any other threat (which hasn't been many) this entire winter so far.

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