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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

This is one of those rare situations where even a crappy high location way offshore can still easily get the job done & yield significant icing, particularly in the western piedmont + Blue Ridge Escarpment regions (near-west of I-85) of the Carolinas.

The air mass immediately upstream of us is just a beast & won't erode anywhere near as easily as some of the globals suggest
 
iGRXY said:
Why are we expecting a perfect run at 156 hours on an Operational lmaooo ???? It’s about TRENDING better right now. But let me not rain on your parade
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Webberweather53 said:
You don't need western ridging to get CAD.


View attachment 131776

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It's called threading the needle. Usually, there's a 50/50 Low that holds the cold air in place for 24-36 hours. I remember some quick-hitting miracles that dumped 6-18" of wet snow on me in NJ and PA in 8-10 hours. It melts real fast. The area that has a slight chance of decent snow is around Appalachian Mountains from NC to PA. I guess we'll see what happens.

It's possible that I'm trolling the board cause I'm Floridian. That might the issue.
 
Tornadocane said:
It's called threading the needle. Usually, there's a 50/50 Low that holds the cold air in place for 24-36 hours. I remember some quick-hitting miracles that dumped 6-18" of wet snow on me in NJ and PA in 8-10 hours. It melts real fast. The area that has a slight chance of decent snow is around Appalachian Mountains from NC to PA. I guess we'll see what happens.

It's possible that I'm trolling the board cause I'm Floridian. That might the issue.
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This isn't really a "threading the needle type setup" nor is it one where folks are gonna see a lot of snow outside the mountains.

This is more of a stick a trough anywhere east of the Rockies & south of I-80 next weekend to generate W-SW flow aloft over top a retreating, but deep and unusually cold arctic air mass, and you have icing potential in CAD favored areas of the Carolinas, VA, & maybe NE GA.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is one of those rare situations where even a crappy high location way offshore can still easily get the job done & yield significant icing, particularly in the western piedmont + Blue Ridge Escarpment regions (near-west of I-85) of the Carolinas.

The air mass immediately upstream of us is just a beast & won't erode anywhere near as easily as some of the globals suggest
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Globals erode typical climo CAD too fast and underperform the strength of it. This is record breaking cold. As in the coldest air in the northern hemisphere is not only on our side of the blobs bits it’s smack dab in our source region. All you need is a semblance of some energy along the boundary and you’ll get overrunning.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is one of those rare situations where even a crappy high location way offshore can still easily get the job done & yield significant icing, particularly in the western piedmont + Blue Ridge Escarpment regions (near-west of I-85) of the Carolinas.

The air mass immediately upstream of us is just a beast & won't erode anywhere near as easily as some of the globals suggest
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I was just about to say that this looks like just the climo CAD areas as usual. East of that is likely out of this one.
 
mrdaddyman said:
I was just about to say that this looks like just the climo CAD areas as usual. East of that is likely out of this one.
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Slow/dig the 50-50 low a little more like we have been the past few days & this may be a different story, but it absolutely looks better back towards more climo favored areas of the Triad than the Triangle. Most likely going to be a freezing rain issue (if anything)
 
Things I know about CAD:
1. Globals suck with it.
2. If you establish that you’ll get CAD, globals erode it too quickly and slide HP out too fast.
3. Is always 3-7 degrees colder
4. In-situ gets the job done a lot more than people want to admit.

And this is just you general winter airmass. The thing we’re looking at is coldest air possible to be our source region.
 
Love the trends I'm seeing on the GEFS & GEPS here. This certainly is starting to get that typical medium range feel of a good CAD event, where the globals start to (finally) pick it up & the 50-50 low consistently slows down/digs. The difference here of course is this particular 50-50 low is an absolute beast compared to what we're normally accustomed to seeing. Just need it to dig and slow a little more still the next few days & then we could be talking about something really substantial as opposed to a minor/nuisance event
 
rburrel2 said:
looks like the 00z CMCE had a stronger storm signal.View attachment 131801View attachment 131802
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Roughly 14/22 had some degree of an icing event centered around hr 156 or Sunday morning
3f2bf971b1457719146bb679a1ee979a.gif


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Maybe the GFS is struggling with it but the CAD is strong but nothing epic. ATL comfortably above freezing. On the bright side, most of North Georgia, and the western Carolinas stays around normal, maybe slightly above a few days, and a few days below. No mega torch by any means.

When I was at college at Emory in the late 90s, we would get a couple of solid ice storms a year. I can’t remember the last one now and I don’t miss them.

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ATLwxfan said:
Maybe the GFS is struggling with it but the CAD is strong but nothing epic. ATL comfortably above freezing. On the bright side, most of North Georgia, and the western Carolinas stays around normal, maybe slightly above a few days, and a few days below. No mega torch by any means.

When I was at college at Emory in the late 90s, we would get a couple of solid ice storms a year. I can’t remember the last one now and I don’t miss them.

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The source region the day before we get any moisture in the area. It's under doing the CAD.
 
metwannabe said:
For NC folks, jmho but around US 1 and east need a lot of help with this one.
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Dont want no ice storm no how lol.....biggest waste of cold and moisture there is. However I assume as we get closer the trend will be colder as the models figure it out, they always do when big cad ice storms are in the offering.
 
06z Icon is really fast with the our wave. Also a little more energy at the base and better detachment from the northern stream. This looks really good, imo. Not sure if it's going to dig enough for precip to blossom or not, but the timing with the CAD high would be perfect. Look how much slower the 00z Euro is with the pacific trough, yuck.Screen Shot 2023-01-30 at 9.10.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2023-01-30 at 9.07.23 AM.png
 
Downeastnc said:
Dont want no ice storm no how lol.....biggest waste of cold and moisture there is. However I assume as we get closer the trend will be colder as the models figure it out, they always do when big cad ice storms are in the offering.
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I'll pass on glazing. Take a sleet storm though but doesn't seem to be in the cards
 
Downeastnc said:
Dont want no ice storm no how lol.....biggest waste of cold and moisture there is. However I assume as we get closer the trend will be colder as the models figure it out, they always do when big cad ice storms are in the offering.
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Totally agree with this, it's not just cliché to say models struggle with very cold shallow arctic airmasses especially globals.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EC 3 run trend. Slower vortex and better energy trend. Can’t ask for much moreView attachment 131812
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One things for sure this winter, and seemingly in this pattern, we always find a way to be wet. Maybe that trend will continue next weekend but with a nice strong cad in place at just the right time.

The 50/50 creeping South with the coldest air in the hemisphere in SE Canada has my attention. Will we get a storm, or will we get a harmless progressive wave float by to our south?
 
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