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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

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CMC looks way better than the GFS. Less SER, stronger consolidated SW, nicer press further south at H5
 
Not cold enough on the CMC. We need a 1040+ high to get this done. Models had that, now it's sitting around 1035. That won't do it for anybody. Right now the most realistic outcome is a 37 degree rain that may end as some backside snow showers if the cold press can press strong enough in the end.
 
Both the GFS and CMC have a tiny vort diving down from Washington at 120 hrs that sort of kicks out the main s/w and becomes the dominate piece of energy in the shortwave trough. It's why the storm drags on a while before sinking/shearing out under the PV lobe dropping down.

Our best chance at this point, imo, is if that tiny vort can trend stronger and carve out the s/w trough a little more on the backside so we maybe get a northwestward push/expansion of precip along the sinking boundary sometime Friday.
 
We got likely one last shot starting around 2/20 to score something. The pattern likely flips and the models have started hinting at it. Problem is climo is coming to an end and that's just one more obstacle to overcome. Air masses start to become less and less cold so you likely have a realistic 10-14 day period where we can score something frozen.
 
iGRXY said:
We got likely one last shot starting around 2/20 to score something. The pattern likely flips and the models have started hinting at it. Problem is climo is coming to an end and that's just one more obstacle to overcome. Air masses start to become less and less cold so you likely have a realistic 10-14 day period where we can score something frozen.
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Post 02/20 is when I start hoping and praying for crazy strong bowling balls to get lost and blast their way across central Georgia. It's a tall order otherwise.
 
For an overrunning type setup like next week to work out in your favor, you absolutely must have the cold air in place before the moisture swoops in.

Why?

Because overrunning setups are driven by warm advection & isentropic upglide aloft, as the plots from the GFS below clearly depict.

In an overrunning event, you're relying entirely on a warm/moist air sliding up + over top of an initially cold air mass to generate precipitation. If you don't have enough cold air at the onset to generate snow/ice, you have almost no chance to see legit wintry precipitation.

I know some are hoping for some cool air to filter in on the backside to flip folks over from rain to snow/ice, but the glaring problem with that is, because of the nature of overrunning, which is mostly warm advection driven, the moment you start piling cold air into the frontal zone is also when you also shut off precipitation processes.

No real way to win here unless the cold air gets here faster & before the storm does and I don't see that happening (& unfortunately suspected this would happen a few days ago).

Onto the next one (which hopefully arrives at the end of February or March)

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My hope (for right now) is to keep a threat of a winter storm close. Kind of like what the GFS/euro is spitting out. I've seen us trend away from storms in the past around this timeline (5-7 days out). Then we trend back to a storm afterwards. But again, it's important to keep the threat close.
 
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GFS ends and there is still no pattern change. Except for 3 days in late Dec winter has yet to begin. We have the same thing we have had for weeks. Humongous Bermuda high, severe threats, and now lows are back hitting CA which means even warmer air is on the way. The pattern WILL change in early March and by that time it wont make a damn bit of difference as far as winter weather goes.
 
lexxnchloe said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png


GFS ends and there is still no pattern change. Except for 3 days in late Dec winter has yet to begin. We have the same thing we have had for weeks. Humongous Bermuda high, severe threats, and now lows are back hitting CA which means even warmer air is on the way. The pattern WILL change in early March and by that time it wont make a damn bit of difference as far as winter weather goes.
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It'll change in March to Cold enough to suck, but warm enough to not snow.

Happens every year it seems.
 
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