Timing differences. That's almost always going to be the case when you're a week or more out. I know some need to see the perfect pattern before even considering wintry weather, but the fact is, most of our winter events come in imperfect patterns and are largely a function of fortunate timing.
A misjudged piece of energy in the flow a few days out actually can make a big difference in how things play out, particularly when you have very cold air nearby.
Is the pattern ideal? No. Is the threat of a big winter storm extremely high? No. Would we be enthusiastic at all if all of the cold air was on the other side of the globe? No. But when we were all promised the big torch and we actually end up with the ability to discuss a potential winter event or two, I guess that's a good thing and something most weather enthusiasts who visit weather forums enjoy.
