Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Odds are, we're gonna see a north trend here sooner rather than later w/ the GFS given the building subtropical high to the south. Good luck getting snow out of this in NC
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Odds are, we're gonna see a north trend here sooner rather than later w/ the GFS given the building subtropical high to the south. Good luck getting snow out of this in NC
I got to say…kuddos on this call. You’ve been relentless to make sure nobody should expect snow. Relentless might be an understatement actually. ?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I hope we don't let this go to waste.
90% of the time it’s a safe bet to say we aren’t going to see any snow. Even when everything looks like it’s in our favor. It’s easy to be on that side of the fence. I prefer to have a little hope. And I do mean little lol.
This is the part where someone says “right where we want it at this range”
Do you think any potential next week would be strictly a CAD ice/sleet storm in the Carolinas or is this a set up that could produce front end snow? That SER flexing leads me to believe it would favor an ice storm
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Record breaking arctic air mass getting dropped into New England late this week w/ a record breaking surface high over Quebec.
Gotta capitalize on opportunities like this.
Gotta capitalize on opportunities like this.
Yep, thats what's frustrating. There is some nice pieces on the table. But the good news if we get a week of steady rain.
I mean come on the 12z has highs in the low-mid 30s on a sunny day on Saturday.
It’s literally wedge Influenced which makes it even more impressive
Don't want to be that guy but cold comes in just in time for this 5 day conveyor of moisture to shut off?
iGRXY
Member
You will likely see more of a NW trend or at least more precipitation on that NW side which is typical with overrunning since it is WAA driven. One nice thing is with a strong subtropical ridge, you’ll see a NW shift and more WAA riding over record type cold air to really help drive moisture output. Also will mean more ice if we can get the timing right.
Yeah, but will it have a date for the party?
CMC with a significant winter storm (ice-sleet)
Mega wedge on the CMC
Noteworthy CMC has a ~1037 high, whereas GFS is ~1050.
CMC pumps out a legit CAD storm with this surface pattern. The airmass is so cold so it makes this look work 
CMC brings the low up thru ENC and thus the >0C 850s.
That airmass is cold enough for a 1037 to work. It just needs to stay in place long enough
You’d love to find a middle ground between CMC/GFS. One where the “it won’t slam into a HP that strong” trope actually kinda works but it’s not so strong that it’s a chance of flurries 20 miles off Hatteras
Well I gotta believe that the GFS is overdoing the strength of that high…. 1050mb in that location is unheard of.
Yeah, that'll bring too much cow bell
Regardless, what a ridiculously cold air mass this weekend.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It’s certainly not impossible in this case.
If it means literally anything ..which it doesn’t.. the CMC looks to have a similar evolution as the … JMA .. lol
CMC makes the base of the trough more impressive which is better for us. We want a more stronger base/digging wave vs stronger N/S around the GLs, it would be even better if we separated them or weakened the N/S. If we get an amplifying southern stream wave in this scenario then a legit winter storm could be on the table and more in the ballpark of ice. CMC locks the SE Canada vortex just enough 
Is this even doable with a high that strong?
Congrats all! 
If at first, you don't receive, try, try again lol.
Not huge differences on the CMC and GFS but enough to affect the surface pattern. The CMC tilts/Matures the wave right to our west/over us, and draws moisture into the CAD dome. The GFS keep it + tilted and never tilts for moisture overspreading into the CAD dome. CMC also has better SE can vortex placement. I like where we sit right now 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You want the high to be as big/bad as possible because the flow is transient/progressive.
Nice GEFS trend here, stronger SE Canada vortex, higher heights trailing the vortex over the GLs (HP), semblance of energy digging over the plains, and higher heights ahead the vortex in response to it being more wound up = slower
??
Our biggest battle right now, is the energy responsible for the storm itself. Our feed/cold is there
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Best GEFS run we've had yet for CAD potential this weekend.
It's doing exactly what we want to see w/ the 50-50 low. Now let's see this trend on other models
Slower/more digging >> more cold advection + stronger surface high, more prolonged/deeper/colder CAD
I know we also need the trough upstream over the Plains to dig southward like the CMC shows in order to get overrunning precip, but slowing/digging the 50-50 low completely on its own will actually do a lot of that heavy lifting for us.
It's doing exactly what we want to see w/ the 50-50 low. Now let's see this trend on other models
Slower/more digging >> more cold advection + stronger surface high, more prolonged/deeper/colder CAD
I know we also need the trough upstream over the Plains to dig southward like the CMC shows in order to get overrunning precip, but slowing/digging the 50-50 low completely on its own will actually do a lot of that heavy lifting for us.
rburrel2
Member
While mostly minor and more novelty event looking... the GEFS is absolutely lit up with freezing rain events Sunday morning for the upstate/NC piedmont. A huge bump from the 06z run. 9 of the 20 members shown on COD weather have an event.
Many gonna have to realize this isn’t a great setup for snow, but rather for sleet/ice. I think I’m down bad to the point where I’d take anything however and be happy
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'd take it.
