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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

There's one trend you can usually bank on when it comes to the GFS:

The subtropical ridge trending stronger inside the medium range.

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Odds are, we're gonna see a north trend here sooner rather than later w/ the GFS given the building subtropical high to the south. Good luck getting snow out of this in NC
 
Odds are, we're gonna see a north trend here sooner rather than later w/ the GFS given the building subtropical high to the south. Good luck getting snow out of this in NC
I got to say…kuddos on this call. You’ve been relentless to make sure nobody should expect snow. Relentless might be an understatement actually. ?
 
I got to say…kuddos on this call. You’ve been relentless to make sure nobody should expect snow. Relentless might be an understatement actually. ?
90% of the time it’s a safe bet to say we aren’t going to see any snow. Even when everything looks like it’s in our favor. It’s easy to be on that side of the fence. I prefer to have a little hope. And I do mean little lol.
 
I hope we don't let this go to waste.

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Do you think any potential next week would be strictly a CAD ice/sleet storm in the Carolinas or is this a set up that could produce front end snow? That SER flexing leads me to believe it would favor an ice storm
 
You will likely see more of a NW trend or at least more precipitation on that NW side which is typical with overrunning since it is WAA driven. One nice thing is with a strong subtropical ridge, you’ll see a NW shift and more WAA riding over record type cold air to really help drive moisture output. Also will mean more ice if we can get the timing right.
 
That airmass is cold enough for a 1037 to work. It just needs to stay in place long enough
You’d love to find a middle ground between CMC/GFS. One where the “it won’t slam into a HP that strong” trope actually kinda works but it’s not so strong that it’s a chance of flurries 20 miles off Hatteras
 
You’d love to find a middle ground between CMC/GFS. One where the “it won’t slam into a HP that strong” trope actually kinda works but it’s not so strong that it’s a chance of flurries 20 miles off Hatteras
Well I gotta believe that the GFS is overdoing the strength of that high…. 1050mb in that location is unheard of.
 
CMC makes the base of the trough more impressive which is better for us. We want a more stronger base/digging wave vs stronger N/S around the GLs, it would be even better if we separated them or weakened the N/S. If we get an amplifying southern stream wave in this scenario then a legit winter storm could be on the table and more in the ballpark of ice. CMC locks the SE Canada vortex just enough A65F6ED9-026C-4C8D-A375-043EC84CB305.png3CFA699E-04D1-4065-975D-E1A6051EFB0F.png
 
If at first, you don't receive, try, try again lol.

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Not huge differences on the CMC and GFS but enough to affect the surface pattern. The CMC tilts/Matures the wave right to our west/over us, and draws moisture into the CAD dome. The GFS keep it + tilted and never tilts for moisture overspreading into the CAD dome. CMC also has better SE can vortex placement. I like where we sit right now 9DC51BC6-8CE3-47C0-B174-FE32E55A03F4.png51A8AC56-3A7D-4192-A3DE-34BD76C67162.png
 
Best GEFS run we've had yet for CAD potential this weekend.

It's doing exactly what we want to see w/ the 50-50 low. Now let's see this trend on other models

Slower/more digging >> more cold advection + stronger surface high, more prolonged/deeper/colder CAD

I know we also need the trough upstream over the Plains to dig southward like the CMC shows in order to get overrunning precip, but slowing/digging the 50-50 low completely on its own will actually do a lot of that heavy lifting for us.
 
Best GEFS run we've had yet for CAD potential this weekend.

It's doing exactly what we want to see w/ the 50-50 low. Now let's see this trend on other models

Slower/more digging >> more cold advection + stronger surface high, more prolonged/deeper/colder CAD

I know we also need the trough upstream over the Plains to dig southward like the CMC shows in order to get overrunning precip, but slowing/digging the 50-50 low completely on its own will actually do a lot of that heavy lifting for us.
Many gonna have to realize this isn’t a great setup for snow, but rather for sleet/ice. I think I’m down bad to the point where I’d take anything however and be happy
 
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