Icon to late with energy it seems
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
lol icon is actually not far from a snowier solution with tilting energy 
Very close definitely would see some wet snowflakes from what Icon is showing.
rburrel2
Member
12 icon is flirting with showing a major, all out paste job for NC/SC.
This is conjecture. Some of us like all forms of winter weather, including ice storms...including big ice storms.
Honestly if you take the warm bias into consideration this would definitely work for most of SC/NC
Didn’t the Euro show something similar to this several days back for this potential. I’ve been focusing on this for more of an ice/sleet potential but if that run of the Icon is a trend, then that’s definitely a way this turns into a paste job
CMC looks like a cold rain
CMC slow with wave so it’s not ideal
ATLwxfan
Member
iGRXY
Member
GFS really dropping the TPV further south. That bodes well down stream. Also the wave is a little faster coming onshore. CMC slowed the wave down wayyyyyyy too much. That is not something you want to see or this curtains.
going to channel tony romo to summarize my thoughts on this threat: oooooeeeaaaaaaiiiiii i dunno about this one jim
willing to be surprised but for now looks like prolonged frozen drizzle at most
willing to be surprised but for now looks like prolonged frozen drizzle at most
iGRXY
Member
We might have a good run incoming.
iGRXY
Member
The wave is actually quite a bit faster and the TPV just made a significant shift south.
rburrel2
Member
Models still clueless on what to do with the pacific wave. Ukmet/gfs/cmc/icon all have wildly different paths/outcomes.
It's not surprising since the wave is getting squeezed over a ridge and squirted out in to the rockies. It seems any option is still on the table after that. Good thing is the cold air looks like it'll be here.. we just need a wave configuration that sparks some precip and isn't delayed too long. Going off the models i'd say that's 50/50 odds right now.
It's not surprising since the wave is getting squeezed over a ridge and squirted out in to the rockies. It seems any option is still on the table after that. Good thing is the cold air looks like it'll be here.. we just need a wave configuration that sparks some precip and isn't delayed too long. Going off the models i'd say that's 50/50 odds right now.
Well was it good?
We might have a good run incoming.
Was definitely a little colder for this run. Depicted precip was still relativly light but that's ok at this point. Looks like the RDU area would be back in the game if the precip was heavier and more widespread.
The only way to reel this in is to start the thread.
packfan98
Moderator
UKMET looks pretty good
The thing I hate is having to rely on precip forming over your head/location.
iGRXY
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
GFS trend is looking better
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Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk
iGRXY
Member
1 good thing is they tend to trend to being more juicier, but you can't get to seeing that until the short range.
rburrel2
Member
the trend continues... GEFS looks even better. 13 of 20 members with at least advisory level event for CAD regions of NC/SC. 4 or 5 of 20 members are showing what i'd say is more like a warning criteria storm.
Minor-moderate snow and ice event on the GFS 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looks like some members want to develop a coastal low Sunday into Monday, something to keep an eye on too, perhaps some phasing?
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rburrel2
Member
Member 11 sure looks interesting... kind of where the icon was going but stronger.
packfan98
Moderator
GEFS getting juiced up.
Yeah but members struggling with temp profiles as well looks like
rburrel2
Member
wow, huge shift on the ukmet... that looks delicious.UKMET looks pretty good
Bringing it not only further south but west as well. Slowing it down?
packfan98
Moderator
Member 17 appears to get a phase and capture.
rburrel2
Member
If we get the neutral pinching off trough scenario the CAD high will be long gone. mid-level and boundary layer temps look very marginal. Could be an isothermal paste job though.