LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
hey at least root for your boy up here for a front end thump
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
ATLwxfan
Member
Is this around the timeframe where the models lose the storm for a few days only to bring it back around game time?
They’d have to have something in the first place.
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packfan98
Moderator
Can we get a NW trend???
rburrel2
Member
GFS looking at lot like the 12z JMA at 189hrs.... interesting. Ensembles should be entertaining.
Last edited:
I might just have to go check the KMA now, lol.
Another episode of Happy Hour to keep us weenies titillated.
NCSNOW
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Find the ole navy nogaps and Dgex while your at it
ATLwxfan
Member
Suppressed and warm…in that case stay suppressed.
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rburrel2
Member
If the GFS is to be believed the first 7 days of February would average well below normal.
From RAH:
Wed-Fri: The surface high to our N is expected to track offshore
early Wed, however any WAA on the back side of the departing high
could be hampered by another weak low that models suggest may form
along the surface front near the Carolina coast. Circulation around
this low could keep cooler air pooling in central NC longer Wed,
leading to cooler temps esp N. With this old frontal zone still
sitting just to our S, eyes then turn to an Arctic cold front
approaching from the NW Wed night with a frigid polar stream surface
high behind it, driven by mid level troughing from central and E
Canada down to TX. Again, predictability is very low at this range
with flow this strong and dynamic, but the pattern overall favors
wetter conditions with periodic rounds of precip, focused on, but
not limited to, Wed night through Thu night. As the Arctic surface
high moves across the Great Lakes and deposits cold air E of the
Appalachians, it`s not out of the question that we could tap into
sufficiently cold air to combine with the in situ moisture and shots
of forcing for ascent to generate a little wintry precip on the NW
side of the precip shield, primarily over N sections as the precip
exits. Will include a chance of rain areawide and add in a slight
chance of snow mixing in across the N Thu night into early Fri. This
situation is certain to evolve with new model runs and new data
getting into the models with time, so stay tuned. Temps should trend
down below normal, with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s Wed but
mostly in the 40s Thu/Fri. -GIH
Wed-Fri: The surface high to our N is expected to track offshore
early Wed, however any WAA on the back side of the departing high
could be hampered by another weak low that models suggest may form
along the surface front near the Carolina coast. Circulation around
this low could keep cooler air pooling in central NC longer Wed,
leading to cooler temps esp N. With this old frontal zone still
sitting just to our S, eyes then turn to an Arctic cold front
approaching from the NW Wed night with a frigid polar stream surface
high behind it, driven by mid level troughing from central and E
Canada down to TX. Again, predictability is very low at this range
with flow this strong and dynamic, but the pattern overall favors
wetter conditions with periodic rounds of precip, focused on, but
not limited to, Wed night through Thu night. As the Arctic surface
high moves across the Great Lakes and deposits cold air E of the
Appalachians, it`s not out of the question that we could tap into
sufficiently cold air to combine with the in situ moisture and shots
of forcing for ascent to generate a little wintry precip on the NW
side of the precip shield, primarily over N sections as the precip
exits. Will include a chance of rain areawide and add in a slight
chance of snow mixing in across the N Thu night into early Fri. This
situation is certain to evolve with new model runs and new data
getting into the models with time, so stay tuned. Temps should trend
down below normal, with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s Wed but
mostly in the 40s Thu/Fri. -GIH
Gefs looks way worse at H5 so far… 
rburrel2
Member
I’m more interested in the next wave coming on shore now anyways.
Still several GEFS members with wintry precip for this system. Meaning there’s still room for more data to refine models another way. It’s a delicate system and while I’d lean heavily towards nothing happening… I agree with NWS that very minor tweaks could turn nothing into something so it still warrants watching imo but the favored solution is little to nothing along the NW edge of the precip shield.
In the 20 years I’ve been looking at computer models, I’ve seen the JMA be the leading model exactly one time in an instance that gave the Carolinas a significant winter storm…. 2/12/2010
We went from hoping for a SSW to seeing a disgusting SPV rooted to 500mb pattern. Absolutely disgusting and terrible. This is a classsic wound up strat PV pattern, fast flow is gonna continue 
Early to mid February looks exactly what we thought early to mid February would look like unless I missed the met backed cold February La Niña forecast. Onto marvelous march ?
rburrel2
Member
Yea the ssw nonsense that gets posted based off 300hr gfs outputs is dumb. They basically never come to fruition but always wind up getting hyped by the ssw “experts”
severestorm
Member
SSW Happening
