Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

[Webberweather53]

If I had a dollar for every one of the "well January really hasn't been THAT warm" posts I've seen on here lately.

No getting around the fact that 70-75% of the month has been above average, with several days in the 60s and even the 70s.

Yes, we've had cold days and nights, but the warm days have been extra warm, the cold days just seasonably cool, and the warm days far out number the amount of colder ones.

Just using Raleigh as an example, which has an average temperature departure of +7.3°F.

As mild as January has been, I doubt February will be an improvement.

 

[Webberweather53]

If I had a dollar for every one of the "well January really hasn't been THAT warm" posts I've seen on here lately.

No getting around the fact that 70-75% of the month has been above average, with several days in the 60s and even the 70s.

Yes, we've had cold days and nights, but the warm days have been extra warm, the cold days just seasonably cool, and the warm days far out number the amount of colder ones.

Just using Raleigh as an example, which has an average temperature departure of +7.3°F.

As mild as January has been, I doubt February will be an improvement.


View attachment 131577

It's also the 9th warmest January on record at RDU since 1887 and the warmest January in nearly 35 years.

 

[J1C1111]

This whole response is wishcasting. Mid February is almost certainly going to be warmer than what we've seen the last few weeks, both in a mean and anomaly sense.

View attachment 131576

You can call it wishcasting all you want. That's fine. You never said mid February in your prior posts about February being warmer. You said about the whole month of February was going to be warmer than avg until maybe the pattern will start to break down the last week of February or the 1st week of March and maybe become favorable for winter storms then. You said we would torch once we entered February and that's not going to happen in the first 10 or so days. How can you call it wishcasting when we have been experiencing this crap weather pattern since winter started and it continues. I would sure put my money on more of the same down the road. Will see what mid February holds.

 

[J1C1111]

Currently 22 this morning.

 

[Webberweather53]

You can call it wishcasting all you want. That's fine. You never said mid February in your prior posts about February being warmer. You said about the whole month of February was going to be warmer than avg until maybe the pattern will start to break down the last week of February or the 1st week of March and maybe become favorable for winter storms then. You said we would torch once we entered February and that's not going to happen in the first 10 or so days. How can you call it wishcasting when we have been experiencing this crap weather pattern since winter started and it continues. I would sure put my money on more of the same down the road. Will see what mid February holds.

Yeah I did, I've said it a lot actually. Let me jog your memory.

This one from January 16th looks like it's going to verify quite nicely overall & is one where I made it very clear how I thought the pattern would progress
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/jammin-january-2023.1159/post-619644

"The big -EAMT event we saw this past week set this pattern evolution into motion and the Pacific jet retraction will get handed off & further reinforced by the MJO as we enter February, leading to a prolonged period of -PNA/SE ridge pattern in the first half-2/3rds of February.

Thus, I think we'll probably go from this central-western weighted trough & southern Canada vortex late month w/ occasional bouts of cold + an outside chance of a CAD event, to a more traditional -PNA in the first week of February that probably shuts down any real chance we have wintry weather, unless we see the 50-50 low go completely crazy like a few EPS & GEFS runs have hinted at.

Thereafter, as we get into the 2nd week of February, I suspect the SE US ridge will actually amplify + flex up the East Coast as the -PNA retreats further into western Canada, yielding a potentially very/unusually mild pattern for much of the E US (not just the SE US this time). I think this pattern will try to persist into at least the 3rd week of February (Feb 14-21), even as the MJO (or whatever comes of subseasonal tropical forcing) enters the West Pacific but by then, I believe we'll see the large-scale puzzle pieces begin to start shuffle around, eventually yielding a potential +EAMT &/or MJO-induced Pacific jet extension sometime around Feb 20th or so.

Eventually, I think that coupled with rapidly shortening jet wavelengths will cause a lot of reshuffling of the circulation pattern over the N Pacific + N America, allowing us to shake off this -PNA/SE ridge pattern sometime around the last week of February & transition to a favorable look for cold/snow right at the tail end of February &/or early March, a time of the winter where we tend to see the most big dog winter storms per capita."



A transient cold shot at the beginning of the month (which mind you has trended warmer) followed by a prolonged period of warmth, growing warmer as we approach mid February doesn't really change the fact that it's going to be unusually mild in February or isn't any different from what I've been saying for weeks.

Neither is the fact that we're getting a traditional -PNA/SE ridge La Nina pattern overall in the first week of February as I also said would happen.

 

[NCSNOW]

Greensboro will end up like +5.8 to +6.2 territory. Far cry from the -3 December.
Knowing the average temps start creeping up in February and a possible hail mary flip the last week along with a few Below normal days first week. If Gboro has a + 6, RDU a +7 for January. Im gonna say February will end up Above normal, but not as much as January both locations. Ill bet the under.
We should net several 55- 60 degree days, Im sure they will occur during the work week and we cad on weekends lol. Hoping the pacific Guru Web sixth sense of a spring flip happens before March 1st, so maybe we can pull a rabbit out and avoid the shutout. Ive never had one. Saw a 5 to 10 minute snow shower this winter outside of frost, thats been it.

 

[iGRXY]

Greensboro will end up like +5.8 to +6.2 territory. Far cry from the -3 December.
Knowing the average temps start creeping up in February and a possible hail mary flip the last week along with a few Below normal days first week. If Gboro has a + 6, RDU a +7 for January. Im gonna say February will end up Above normal, but not as much as January both locations. Ill bet the under.
We should net several 55- 60 degree days, Im sure they will occur during the work week and we cad on weekends lol. Hoping the pacific Guru Web sixth sense of a spring flip happens before March 1st, so maybe we can pull a rabbit out and avoid the shutout. Ive never had one. Saw a 5 to 10 minute snow shower this winter outside of frost, thats been it.

Greensboro probably gets saved by a ton of CAD days. Which is one reason why I don’t pay attention to temp anomalies like that. I’ve had a grand total of 2 60 degree days here in January and it was literally “60 degrees” it has been numerous CAD filled days where we stay between 37-42 constantly. Below average highs but you’re running 5-10 “above average” technically because of the lows. If you look at this all those +5 to +10 temp anomalies you’d think it was spring the whole month when in reality it’s just been 40 degrees and raining the whole month

 

[POWERSTROKE]

You can call it wishcasting all you want. That's fine. You never said mid February in your prior posts about February being warmer. You said about the whole month of February was going to be warmer than avg until maybe the pattern will start to break down the last week of February or the 1st week of March and maybe become favorable for winter storms then. You said we would torch once we entered February and that's not going to happen in the first 10 or so days. How can you call it wishcasting when we have been experiencing this crap weather pattern since winter started and it continues. I would sure put my money on more of the same down the road. Will see what mid February holds.

Good ole Joe Bastardi said in October cold December, torch Jan, and cold comes back late Feb until April. So far he has been right. So the warmth was on the table all along from some forecasts as well as models. Problem is most watch every model run and switch their forecast at most runs. Just like this week the excitement of the gfs which is never right and then euro follows with storm 9 days away which never works out either. The wish casting started.

I do not get on here and post back and forth but will say Webb has been primarily warm on February as most models have shown that for a while. Nobody likes to hear that. Facts are facts.
This is just not a good winter and never was forecast to be. JB showed in October in his winter outlook the SE did not look good. If cold comes back to se we will be lucky to get anything unless in February. Nobody likes JB but he is one of the best of recognition of patterns.
Also yes we have had big snows in March but its been a while. Have even had snow on April 1st not to long ago but thats a stretch.

 

[BHS1975]

The high overnight lows have been driving the anomalies for many years now.


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[Webberweather53]

The high overnight lows have been driving the anomalies for many years now.


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The afternoon highs have actually been driving this month's warmth more so than the lows.

 

[BHS1975]

The afternoon highs have actually been driving this month's warmth more so than the lows.

Yeah in general the loss of heat from radiation is less effective now especially near the east coast with higher dew points.


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[Myfrotho704_]

Greensboro probably gets saved by a ton of CAD days. Which is one reason why I don’t pay attention to temp anomalies like that. I’ve had a grand total of 2 60 degree days here in January and it was literally “60 degrees” it has been numerous CAD filled days where we stay between 37-42 constantly. Below average highs but you’re running 5-10 “above average” technically because of the lows. If you look at this all those +5 to +10 temp anomalies you’d think it was spring the whole month when in reality it’s just been 40 degrees and raining the whole month

From what I can see on WU and wither nearby stations the average there is around 60/61 for a high and 33/34 for lows, so highs is driving the above normal temps, and many stations around you (including this one) have more in the range of 4-7 60 degree days, some have 1-2 70s (this one has 70), it might not seem like it but there’s been plenty of 60s

 

[BHS1975]

From what I can see on WU and wither nearby stations the average there is around 60/61 for a high and 33/34 for lows, so highs is driving the above normal temps, and many stations around you (including this one) have more in the range of 4-7 60 degree days, some have 1-2 70s (this one has 70), it might not seem like it but there’s been plenty of 60s View attachment 131585View attachment 131586View attachment 131587

Felt more like a normal November that's for sure.


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[J1C1111]

Good ole Joe Bastardi said in October cold December, torch Jan, and cold comes back late Feb until April. So far he has been right. So the warmth was on the table all along from some forecasts as well as models. Problem is most watch every model run and switch their forecast at most runs. Just like this week the excitement of the gfs which is never right and then euro follows with storm 9 days away which never works out either. The wish casting started.

I do not get on here and post back and forth but will say Webb has been primarily warm on February as most models have shown that for a while. Nobody likes to hear that. Facts are facts.
This is just not a good winter and never was forecast to be. JB showed in October in his winter outlook the SE did not look good. If cold comes back to se we will be lucky to get anything unless in February. Nobody likes JB but he is one of the best of recognition of patterns.
Also yes we have had big snows in March but its been a while. Have even had snow on April 1st not to long ago but thats a stretch.

I agree with your post. Your right. We still have a shot down the road for snow. I don't try to post back and forth either but when someone acts like you were born yesterday you kinda got to stand your ground a little. My whole point of the post was just saying February can't be any worse than January has been when you have no snow chances or anything in the frozen department. How can February be worse when you have gotten nothing in January. Zero. But im just wishcasting when I comment. Thanks man. I appreciate it.

 

[Webberweather53]

I agree with your post. Your right. We still have a shot down the road for snow. I don't try to post back and forth either but when someone acts like you were born yesterday you kinda got to stand your ground a little. My whole point of the post was just saying February can't be any worse than January has been when you have no snow chances or anything in the frozen department. How can February be worse when you have gotten nothing in January. Zero. But im just wishcasting when I comment. Thanks man. I appreciate it.

Winter isn't only about snow, both cold temperatures and snow matter. Not to mention, your first reply to me wasn't only about snow.

Temperature wise, February is most likely going to be worse than January. Enjoy the transient cold shot early in the month, because you probably won't be seeing that kind of cold on a consistent basis for a while to come.

 

[Nomanslandva]

I have not completely given up hope on next week into the weekend. The EPS last night had quite a few interesting members in the next 10 days. It was an improvement over yesterday's 12z so ??

 

[griteater]

January Departure from Mean maps for both High Temperatures (1st image) and Low Temperatures (2nd image)

 

[Webberweather53]

Observed average maximum and minimum month-to-date temperatures via Climate perspectives from the Southeastern Regional Climate Center (SERCC).

Maximum temperatures are majority driving the temperature anomalies in the SE US (noticeably greater coverage of orange). Same can't be said to the north

Maximum temps





Minimum temps

 

[griteater]

Good ole Joe Bastardi said in October cold December, torch Jan, and cold comes back late Feb until April. So far he has been right. So the warmth was on the table all along from some forecasts as well as models. Problem is most watch every model run and switch their forecast at most runs. Just like this week the excitement of the gfs which is never right and then euro follows with storm 9 days away which never works out either. The wish casting started.

I do not get on here and post back and forth but will say Webb has been primarily warm on February as most models have shown that for a while. Nobody likes to hear that. Facts are facts.
This is just not a good winter and never was forecast to be. JB showed in October in his winter outlook the SE did not look good. If cold comes back to se we will be lucky to get anything unless in February. Nobody likes JB but he is one of the best of recognition of patterns.
Also yes we have had big snows in March but its been a while. Have even had snow on April 1st not to long ago but thats a stretch.

On the other hand, weather boards are the place to discuss these kinds of things. If X poster reports what Y model is showing a winter storm, it doesn't have to mean that X poster has inflated expectations that said event is going to happen, or that X poster is wishcasting, or that X poster is going to jump off a bridge if said event doesn't happen. It's back and forth weather discussion that you're not going to get elsewhere. No harm, no foul

 

[deltadog03]

I will tell you that this winter has sucked down here so far. I know it’s FL, but it’s mostly been above norm temps, higher humidity and dry. Kick this NINA ---- to the curb please. Oh, and thank you. Lol