Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

Squashed but colder so far this run. s/w is just to fast

 

[FallsLake]

^^Yep. Here's hour 153:

 

[rburrel2]

Not far off from a hit for central NC. The time period after that looking interesting too with the confluence building in over new england and the trough over the rockies sped up.

 

[Webberweather53]

The reason it's getting squashed here is because you're shutting off the main driver of precipitation in this setup (warm advection) by pressing the cold down from the north. You allow the precip to inch back north and you end up getting more warm advection aloft that changes any would-be frozen precip to rain or perhaps ice in some locales.

I just don't see how you score here unless the shortwave is a lot*** slower & allows the cold air to beat it into the Carolinas.

 

[rburrel2]

how much is a plane ticket to southern Greenland?

 

[EmersonGA]

The afternoon highs have actually been driving this month's warmth more so than the lows.

Just shows we can have a well above normal month and it still feel winter like. My daffodils are just a few inches up with plenty of hard freezes but still warm days. I think a lot of us see all the red and assume 75 every day but it doesn’t take that for above normal.

 

[Stormdoc]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023012812/gfs_T850_us_28.png

This is a nice look honestly, but as everyone has noted, high is in a great place but I don’t know how we are going to get the s/w to slow down

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The reason it's getting squashed here is because you're shutting off the main driver of precipitation in this setup (warm advection) by pressing the cold down from the north. You allow the precip to inch back north and you end up getting more warm advection aloft that changes any would-be frozen precip to rain or perhaps ice in some locales.

I just don't see how you score here unless the shortwave is a lot*** slower & allows the cold air to beat it into the Carolinas.

Yep. Need slower S/W. Only way I know we can do that is strengthen the ridge behind it and back off the energy entering the west coast that gives the fast boot, but that’s difficult with energy emerging out the GOA. Not impossible but it’s hard in this type of pattern

 

[EmersonGA]

We did get a very minor snow event in GA in late February 1999 i believe.

Got 1.5” from a clipper. Melted very fast.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Just shows we can have a well above normal month and it still feel winter like. My daffodils are just a few inches up with plenty of hard freezes but still warm days. I think a lot of us see all the red and assume 75 every day but it doesn’t take that for above normal.

above normal means its probably going to be at least 60.

 

[rburrel2]

Yep. Need slower S/W. Only way I know we can do that is strengthen the ridge behind it and back off the energy entering the west coast that gives the fast boot, but that’s difficult with energy emerging out the GOA. Not impossible but it’s hard in this type of pattern

Let's punt the first s/w and role with the 192hr GFS.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yep. Need slower S/W. Only way I know we can do that is strengthen the ridge behind it and back off the energy entering the west coast that gives the fast boot, but that’s difficult with energy emerging out the GOA. Not impossible but it’s hard in this type of pattern

You need the wave timing to look something like the trailing disturbance does, this right here on the 12z GFS would yield a nice CAD event in the Carolinas.


But once again, we're sitting w/ a good look at day 8-9. I wanna see this consistently across multiple model suites for at least 3 days before getting excited

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is painful. Literally if the S/W backed up a state or 2 west and we amped up the pattern some, it’s a winter storm. It’s just to fast

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol that’s some insane cold air in SE Canada. Would not want to experience that

 

[LukeBarrette]

Let's punt the first s/w and role with the 192hr GFS.View attachment 131613

We all know this isn’t happening

 

[Shaggy]

This is painful. Literally if the S/W backed up a state or 2 west and we amped up the pattern some, it’s a winter storm. It’s just to fast View attachment 131610View attachment 131611

Story of the season has been progression with no blocking. No reason to think this one will be different

 

[Stormdoc]

Painful looking at the GFS, first storm a little too early, second disturbance a little too late. You would think we could get lucky every decade or so.

 

[Webberweather53]

The day 8-9 GFS is definitely how you get a nice CAD event in the Carolinas.

This isn't saying much at all considering how far out it is & the lack of run-to-run consistency, but I personally think this has a better chance to turn into something than the overrunning event we've been looking at for several days, mainly because the cold air would already be well entrenched & it would be more of a matter of getting moisture to overrun that from the SW.

Without significant high-latitude blocking & a +PNA/-NAO, you're limiting yourself to these overrunning & CAD-type setups. In those kinds of storms, you absolutely need the cold air to beat the moisture to the punch to have a real chance to see snow/ice. It's a totally different story when you're dealing w/ an amped coastal cyclone however.

 

[DobsonCityWx]

I like March snows. The sun will work better than old plow.

 

[rburrel2]

CMC has a favorable track and orientation of the 2nd trough... but doesn't have the same confluence in new england like the GFS has so the wedge is muted.

I don't feel confident in either piece working out, but it at least seems possible we could get both things to go our way right now.