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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

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I guess if anyone cares at least the TPV is further south.
 
iGRXY said:
We can do much better than those south of Spartanburg for sure, but it requires the overall pattern or storm to work for most on this board for me to get anything. The perks of living here is when we do get a storm I fight off warm noses longer, it's generally anywhere from 2-5 degrees colder than those south of 85, I benefit from the lift of the 3500ft mountains only about 5-10 miles to my NW, and in tight CAD events I tend to hold a degree or 2 lower than those around the interstate. the winters of 19-20 and 20-21 for example a friend lives a mile N of 85 got a dusting from each of the handful of novelty snow events and I got around 0.5-1". During 32 Degree rains of 20-21 he got exactly that while I was a degree or 2 colder so I got ice on the trees and bushes. It's just little stuff like that, that counts and helps but for me to see snow or ice it takes the same things for anyone else east of the mountains and along and north of 85 to happen for me to score. Living this far north of the interstate and having an extra 300-400 ft in average elevation vs those along the interstate is great though no doubt and really really helps in marginal setups especially.
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Agreed. Gownensville east to Chesnee north of HWY 11 is the snow honey hole of SC. Been In the Upstate my whole life and it’s comical the drop in snowfall 5 miles make. Temp variances are the same.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
This is probably the worst cycle of weather for January in recent memory. Same song and dance every week. Rain, cloud, cloud, rain, cloud, rain, dense fog

This is a lethal environment for people battling depression. Stay strong, Kings. Spring is coming
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And next winter will be same. Hopefully the el-nino warm pool out in the pacific sets up in good location and not parked right off the SW coast.
 
packfan98 said:
It's a cold chasing moisture setup. Rarely works east of the mountains without some extra lift and backbuilding.
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That's fair but our source of air is usually not -30c in this situations. I'm not saying it'll happen and be sizeable, but I think the further NE you are in the state, the better shot you have to end as some snow, maybe.
 
packfan98 said:
It's a cold chasing moisture setup. Rarely works east of the mountains without some extra lift and backbuilding.
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Yep, you need a trailing wave that develops along the frontal boundary. It's almost impossible to have one wave move through, precipitation to start as rain, and then change over to a good backside snowfall. If it happens at all, the best you're going to do is rain to a quick burst of snow that melts on contact.

I remember the days when arctic fronts would settle across the area and stall just to the south and then a secondary wave or waves of low pressure would form and ride along the boundary, giving us snow. Our predominate pattern now is that the front just blasts through and there is no southern stream energy. Or the front hangs up west of the mountains and we get the Apps runner.

It used to be neat to see snow in TX and know we'd have a shot at wintry weather here. Now, snow in TX means upper south through TN up into the western areas of the NE or even the Midwest. The angle of the flow is wrong, as we've seen with so many either full continental ridges or west coast troughing. Good old fashioned split flow with bonafide cold to the north that makes it this far south seems to be a thing of the past.
 
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Rain Cold said:
Yep, you need a trailing wave that develops along the frontal boundary. It's almost impossible to have one wave move through, precipitation to start as rain, and then change over to a good backside snowfall. If it happens at all, the best you're going to do is rain to a quick burst of snow that melts on contact.
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95% of the time though that push is out of the WNW vs. Nish. I think thats why the GEFS is seemingly picking up on this.
 
BullCityWx said:
That's fair but our source of air is usually not -30c in this situations. I'm not saying it'll happen and be sizeable, but I think the further NE you are in the state, the better shot you have to end as some snow, maybe.
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There have been instances where eastern NC can get something, but the moisture skips the foothills and Triad regions. Maybe east of the Triangle has a shot at a flurry or brief snowshower?
 
packfan98 said:
There have been instances where eastern NC can get something, but the moisture skips the foothills and Triad regions. Maybe east of the Triangle has a shot at a flurry or brief snowshower?
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I mean if I was guessing where it could happen, I'd say from @metwannabe to the sounds. Maybe back as west as TDF. Maybe. We're talking about a ten or fifteen minute snow shower IMO. Nothing more than a T.
 
BullCityWx said:
95% of the time though that push is out of the WNW vs. Nish. I think thats why the GEFS is seemingly picking up on this.
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I mean, you're right, it's possible. The air up there is very cold. It would be a pretty rare scenario, though, one that I'd still rate as a long shot. But I guess that's better than no shot.

The mere fact that we're trying to shoehorn in a trace of snow speaks volumes about where we are with this festering turd of a winter.
 
^^Yeah, the GFS also has a little support.

Hour 75:
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As stated above, cold chasing moisture hardly ever works. But the incoming winds will have a more northerly direction. Not saying we're going to get anything big, but a good snow shower would be a win at this point.

Dew points:
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junbb1 said:
Agreed. Gownensville east to Chesnee north of HWY 11 is the snow honey hole of SC. Been In the Upstate my whole life and it’s comical the drop in snowfall 5 miles make. Temp variances are the same.
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Spartanburg County is one of the most interesting counties in the state in terms of microclimates IMO. The county is immediately east of extremely tall mountains so CAD really holds well here. The elevation topography of the county is big with hills and elevation of 500 ft in the southern part of the county to 800-900 ft along the interstate and 1000-1500ft north of there. I mean look at this snow footprint picture and notice where it lines up just south of lol.
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iGRXY said:
Spartanburg County is one of the most interesting counties in the state in terms of microclimates IMO. The county is immediately east of extremely tall mountains so CAD really holds well here. The elevation topography of the county is big with hills and elevation of 500 ft in the southern part of the county to 800-900 ft along the interstate and 1000-1500ft north of there. I mean look at this snow footprint picture and notice where it lines up just south of lol.
MODIS_Aqua_regional_web.png
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Whenever I see I map like that, I’m amazed of how close that cut off is to I-85. It’s like Mother Nature knows exactly where it is
 
Chazwin said:
Whenever I see I map like that, I’m amazed of how close that cut off is to I-85. It’s like Mother Nature knows exactly where it is
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I remember there was a storm a few years ago (I can't think off the top of my head) Where my girlfriend and I were out at a party at a friends and they were calling for snow that night. The party was in Moore and when we left it hard started raining. When we got up to about 3 miles south of 85 it started switching over to snow, by the time I got to 85 it was probably 80% snow, and by the time we made it home (12 miles north of 85) the roads where already covered. That's how serious that cutoff really is, especially in Marginal setups. When I got my tree and bush toppers, if I got on 26 and drove maybe 1-2 miles into NC it would've been full on ZR and they get a QTR inch of ice at least.
 
LukeBarrette said:
I’m so ready for our March slopfest snowstorm
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That’s what sucks, by the time we get a better pattern to shape up (IF) we’re going to be battling sun angle, ground tempts, BL issues, etc. Granted some of our best storms have come in late February / early March, but it’s just nice to get a good cold storm in January.
 
iGRXY said:
I remember there was a storm a few years ago (I can't think off the top of my head) Where my girlfriend and I were out at a party at a friends and they were calling for snow that night. The party was in Moore and when we left it hard started raining. When we got up to about 3 miles south of 85 it started switching over to snow, by the time I got to 85 it was probably 80% snow, and by the time we made it home (12 miles north of 85) the roads where already covered. That's how serious that cutoff really is, especially in Marginal setups. When I got my tree and bush toppers, if I got on 26 and drove maybe 1-2 miles into NC it would've been full on ZR and they get a QTR inch of ice at least.
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It’s the same here on the east side of CLT metro in Union County, NC. In the January 2017 storm, I was forecasted to get 4-7”, but instead got warm nosed and ended up with ,25” of ice and then 1/2” of snow as the storm was ending. Meanwhile 30 miles north at my parents house in Concord, there was a solid 5” of snow/sleet… my youngest son was so disappointed in how little snow we got, I had to take him to his grandparents house that afternoon to go sledding.
 
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CaryWx said:
Not buying that unless it is some kind of rates overcoming... deal
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I’m not buying it either… especially from the NAM at that range. However as has been said, with the cold coming in from more of northerly trajectory, there’s not as much downsloping so perhaps the cold air could work in fast enough to get a few flakes down that way, but that looks very extreme
 
Chazwin said:
It’s the same here on the east side of CLT metro in Union County, NC. In the January 2017 storm, I was forecasted to get 4-7”, but instead got warm nosed and ended up with ,25” of ice and then 1/2” of snow as the storm was ending. Meanwhile 30 miles north at my parents house in Concord, there was a solid 5” of snow/sleet… my youngest son was so disappointed in how little snow we got, I had to take him to his grandparents house that afternoon to go sledding.
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I was in Davidson at the time and I ended up with 7”. Two places that are always gonna win: Lake Norman and Roxboro.
 
BullCityWx said:
I was in Davidson at the time and I ended up with 7”. Two places that are always gonna win: Lake Norman and Roxboro.
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Just to reinforce some of what's been posted here today about the 85 Gradient.
There's a reason why !
Also that pic that IGRXY posted was very telling.
You see the sharp cutoff in GVL & Spg counties.
On this board you always hear about the Wake gradient but,
That's not nearly as noticable to my eyes on that pic as in SC.
You can distinctly see the difference in what looks to be measurable snowfall just a few miles to nothing.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Meanwhile Dallaska strikes again. So sick of hearing about winter in Texas. At least we have the snowless I-95 corridor to warm the cockles of our hearts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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One thing is for sure. Over the last 3 or 4 years Dallas has had a lot more wintry weather than Atlanta.
 
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