Still some noise on the EPS between 3rd-6th 
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's certainly something we can live with 7-8 days out.
Slow/dig the trough over Quebec + Atlantic Canada more and the upstream trough + ridge will slow/dig, amplifying the surface high over New England and causing overrunning precipitation from the W-SW to be stronger & sooner on arrival/more likely to intersect the low-level cold air mass.
A few other encouraging signs for CAD at day 7-8:
The coldest air in the entire Northern Hemisphere will also be over our CAD source regions of Quebec + Atlantic Canada next weekend.
As much as I think this week's overrunning event may not do much for us thru Friday of this coming week, some fresh snow cover may be laid down to our north, keeping this arctic air mass refrigerated on its way southward into VA & the Carolinas next weekend (and will encourage it to persist longer too).We have some of the right basic ingredients in place to make something happen around day 8 & the changes we need see to make something happen between now & then are pretty small in the grand scheme of things.
olhausen
Member
Middle Tennessee better hope the nam is wrong. I love snow but I’ll pass on the ZR. I’d rather have a 33 degree rain then no power. This is just round 1. Another round is about to come in after the first round drops this down starting early Tuesday morning.
rburrel2
Member
If this threat comes to fruition I just want to point out the JMA lead the way... and it's honking again today.
Tornadocane
Member
That's certainly something we can live with 7-8 days out.
Slow/dig the trough over Quebec + Atlantic Canada more and the upstream trough + ridge will slow/dig, amplifying the surface high over New England and causing overrunning precipitation from the W-SW to be stronger & sooner on arrival/more likely to intersect the low-level cold air mass.
A few other encouraging signs for CAD at day 7-8:
View attachment 131643
We have some of the right basic ingredients in place to make something happen around day 8 & the changes we need see to make something happen between now & then are pretty small in the grand scheme of things.
View attachment 131644
The Atlantic Side looks terrible. I think you need is a solid PNA that holds for a couple of days instead of this Alaska Ridge that is trying to dig a trough over the western United States, which causes things to slip further east. I'd argue that things are trending in the wrong direction with the NW CONUS Storm.
It's looking something more like this 2016 image.
Brent
Member
Yeah I have no excitement for freezing rain here either which is what I'm afraid is what a lot of this is gonna be
rburrel2
Member
We do a lot better when we need CAD to trend slower and precip to trend faster and cold/dry air is already established.
Lol 
rburrel2
Member
Love how it sped up that wave in the Pacific.
That would be really close. Verbatim, I'd estimate another 36 hours before CAD could establish.
I thought the 18z RDPS looked interesting at hour 84. There would be CAD building down from the north with dew points in the teens as close as the Mason-Dixion line.
I know it's hard to believe but we do have some members from Tennessee, Arkansas, northern Mississippi. I might fire up a thread for those folks for the system early to mid next week. Just wanted to let everyone know before areas to the east start posting nonsense about it not happening
Ok
There has always been this mediocre low end chance to end this as snow or sleet depending on if we could keep the dgz saturated. As @Webberweather53 said its not the way you want to do it but it's probably the best we can do with the high trailing so far behind
rburrel2
Member
Been a while since we've seen a CAD high this strong in real life. (not that we will this time either)
The 18z GFS would be great (for the output totals), but as depicted it would be a rain to snow situations with marginal surface temps. Basically a slush-storm. But, I'll take anything right now.
So the 18z GFs has two events for us to look at: Day 5/6 and day 7/8