Sucks the gfs has the sub 850 layer roaring out of the S. We actually have a great column for snow minus about 875-950
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Day 7-8 CAD event seems like the safer bet to me.
One of the strongest surface highs I’ve ever seen in a model forecast over southern Ontario & Quebec.
One of the strongest surface highs I’ve ever seen in a model forecast over southern Ontario & Quebec.
rburrel2
Member
looks like the happy hour GFS is trying to set up another Wedge event at day 10
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That gfs run is an ugly zr scenario from US1 west. Dews in the upper single digits to teens when this gets going it would be hard to push that above freezing until you've dropped .25-.5 of qpf
JHS
Member
rburrel2
Member
Still a lot of time for large scale things to change, but in a general sense we do well in these scenarios where we get a cold/dry airmass entrenched at the surface and then have to worry about the main CAD high pulling out to sea. The leftover in-situ wedge/high usually performs better/stronger/colder than models show, even in the short range.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS looks to be near the southern end of the 18z GEFS envelope w/ the first system & the run-to-run trend is completely different between the op & ensemble by day 5-6.
Not buying the happy hour solution w/ snow next Fri.
Not buying the happy hour solution w/ snow next Fri.
I would personally rather phase -->bomb this than hope for insitu/hybrid wedging but I'm speaking for mby onlysince my location is meh in wedging
DobsonCityWx
Member
I’m not buying the snow solution either we need to rely on this big high cad in an otherwise gay pattern. We can get the temperatures at the surface and let the higher levels blaze. Then we will just need moisture which I will have more to talk about later this week. I could the setup favoring more east and less further west and north.
rburrel2
Member
Cary_Snow95
Member
Realistically with that look verbatim how much cold air could we wrap down with a phase
griteater
Member
JMA definitely has the best look at day 7 as it wants to dig a deeper low anomaly to the south into the S Plains with weaker anomaly running west to east into the Great Lakes. Any quicker and/or stronger low anomaly / waviness running west to east into the Great Lakes will want to kick our damming high off the coast quicker.
JMA images…
A sentence no one has ever said
Brick Tamland
Member
Crazy how this has turned around the last couple of days. We went from a possible day 7 storm to nothing, and now here we are with potentially two events in the next 7/8 days.
I would expect 0 events or you may end up very disappointed again
Cary_Snow95
Member
Might get a phase here
Cary_Snow95
Member
