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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

ATLwxfan said:
Meanwhile Dallaska strikes again. So sick of hearing about winter in Texas. At least we have the snowless I-95 corridor to warm the cockles of our hearts.


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Yeah, but their events are always pretty small. Every time i see Dallas and wintry weather its like this tiny little ice coating...LOL
 
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Billypg70 said:
Just to reinforce some of what's been posted here today about the 85 Gradient.
There's a reason why !
Also that pic that IGRXY posted was very telling.
You see the sharp cutoff in GVL & Spg counties.
On this board you always hear about the Wake gradient but,
That's not nearly as noticable to my eyes on that pic as in SC.
You can distinctly see the difference in what looks to be measurable snowfall just a few miles to nothing.
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I agree. It's a huge cut off down there for you guys as well. I've experienced it several times over and it's real. Feast or famine. Since we're talking about gradients im going to throw in the Rutherford county nc gradient. It's one that never gets much mention but it should with the elevation change as there's a huge gradient here in the county and if you have lived here long enough you know. You go from the upstate to the mountains from the southern end of the county to the north western end of the county. From the state line NC/SC state line just out of Chesnee in to RC to Chimney Rock there is a crazy difference in elevation and snow totals north to south. I'm a mile south of the 74 bypass sitting at 1000ft elevation and there's a big gradient there as well 74 south to 74 north with the snow totals. Just one example off the top of my head Dec 18 2009. Chesnee maybe around 2 inches. My location Danieltown right off of 221 5 miles south of Rutherfordton 6 inches. Rutherfordton 10 inches and Chimney Rock 14 inches in that storm. Elevation is king.
 
I think it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see some freezing drizzle or rain from Raleigh and places NW late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Some short range models have us flirting with freezing with some precip in the area. Key would be getting the precip in early enough and also making it down to freezing. Best chance would be around @metwannabe 599B1A71-6092-40AE-8A45-D83BBA442EFE.jpeg
 
Can’t imagine the GEFS pulling something out here but the majority want to mix in some sort of snow flakes on the northern edge of precip. About as razor thin of a margin as we can get. (Don’t look at member 8) CA1E79C5-0EEE-4B28-BC40-34405218C967.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Can’t imagine the GEFS pulling something out here but the majority want to mix in some sort of snow flakes on the northern edge of precip. About as razor thin of a margin as we can get. (Don’t look at member 8) View attachment 131933
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When cold chasing moisture does work at all, it's setups like this. If can get a slp to form to hekp slow precip exit some and orientation of caa (more northerly component and not w/nw) then maybe just maybe a few lucky souls see those splattering raindrops on the windshields lol
 
Snowlover87 said:
What kind of weather station ?
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6-Weather-Vane-Picture-3.jpg
 
MB22 said:
Yeah, but their events are always pretty small. Every time i see Dallas and wintry weather its like this tiny little ice coating...LOL
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Umm…they get events. In town Atlanta hasn’t in half a decade, token flakes notwithstanding.


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
It probably doesn't mean a hill of beans, but GFS showing a trend of a slower exit of precip on Friday
7c1497e3b445d7f3b733f74396d3b3ff.gif


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It could mean a hill of slushy raindrops though
 
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If our s/w could get a little more neutral tilt before it shears out this could trend in to something. Don't these normally hold together a little better than models show sometimes?
Screen Shot 2023-01-31 at 8.27.30 PM.png
 
rburrel2 said:
If our s/w could get a little more neutral tilt before it shears out this could trend in to something. Don't these normally hold together a little better than models show sometimes?
View attachment 131940
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Usually they do. I seem to remember the Euro and few EPS panels were trying to that a couple days ago. Honestly these are the type of trends that can happen inside of 72 hours that can make things interesting.
 
J1C1111 said:
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I agree. It's a huge cut off down there for you guys as well. I've experienced it several times over and it's real. Feast or famine. Since we're talking about gradients im going to throw in the Rutherford county nc gradient. It's one that never gets much mention but it should with the elevation change as there's a huge gradient here in the county and if you have lived here long enough you know. You go from the upstate to the mountains from the southern end of the county to the north western end of the county. From the state line NC/SC state line just out of Chesnee in to RC to Chimney Rock there is a crazy difference in elevation and snow totals north to south. I'm a mile south of the 74 bypass sitting at 1000ft elevation and there's a big gradient there as well 74 south to 74 north with the snow totals. Just one example off the top of my head Dec 18 2009. Chesnee maybe around 2 inches. My location Danieltown right off of 221 5 miles south of Rutherfordton 6 inches. Rutherfordton 10 inches and Chimney Rock 14 inches in that storm. Elevation is king.[/QUOTE]

Preach. I live In Bostic which is maybe 6-10 miles N of your location. The cherry mountain chain ( 1,600’) is right in front of me and yellow top to my NNE.
Right at 1000’ here with 1,100 close by.
The gradient is super tight through here!


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