LickWx
Member
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
The euro was close and the Canadian was a little better. I haven't giving up but it's now time to start seeing some favorable trends. Really wouldn't take much.
Yeah for sure. Good post. Wishcasting is not discussing potential weather events.
So to be fair RAH has backed away from the wintery threat.
"The mid-level flow will turn more southwesterly from Wednesday night
into Friday, increasing confidence in precipitation during this
period. Another wave will move along the frontal zone Wednesday
night into Thursday, inducing a surface low that will develop off
the NC coast. So POPs increase to likely during this period. This
low and associated rain may help keep temperatures slightly below
normal on Thursday despite the high moving offshore. But they still
look too warm for anything but liquid. A vigorous shortwave will
then move across the Deep South on Thursday night - Friday, inducing
better mid-level height falls and continuing decent precipitation
chances. A cold front will finally sweep through on Friday behind
this system, but the GFS and ECMWF trended significantly slower with
its timing on their 00z runs. So keep POPs going into the day on
Friday and increased forecast temperatures a bit. This looks to be a
case of cold air chasing the precipitation, so again not expecting a
significant threat of frozen."
"The mid-level flow will turn more southwesterly from Wednesday night
into Friday, increasing confidence in precipitation during this
period. Another wave will move along the frontal zone Wednesday
night into Thursday, inducing a surface low that will develop off
the NC coast. So POPs increase to likely during this period. This
low and associated rain may help keep temperatures slightly below
normal on Thursday despite the high moving offshore. But they still
look too warm for anything but liquid. A vigorous shortwave will
then move across the Deep South on Thursday night - Friday, inducing
better mid-level height falls and continuing decent precipitation
chances. A cold front will finally sweep through on Friday behind
this system, but the GFS and ECMWF trended significantly slower with
its timing on their 00z runs. So keep POPs going into the day on
Friday and increased forecast temperatures a bit. This looks to be a
case of cold air chasing the precipitation, so again not expecting a
significant threat of frozen."
griteater
Member
This is one thing that has changed over the years...NWS offices used to never jump on winter threats early
06z EPS improved at H5 a bit if we got back in the game trends would start today
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Things look pretty toasty to me thru at least Feb 25th or so in general, save a few random cold shots here or there, like early in the month. Near-certain February will be above average for temps in the SE US, esp for the Carolinas & GA. Further NW you get towards the TN & OH Valley into the southern Plains, better your odds are of staving off the SE US ridge.
We seem to be headed for a cool(er) March however
Pretty classic La Nina precipitation pattern here too, with high confidence in above average precipitation in the battle zone between the SE US ridge and western trough.
Will have to keep an eye out for river flooding for those in the lower-mid MS & Ohio Valleys as the combination of heavy rainfall & snowmelt upstream will put significant strain on the Mississippi river and some of the major tributaries.
We seem to be headed for a cool(er) March however
Pretty classic La Nina precipitation pattern here too, with high confidence in above average precipitation in the battle zone between the SE US ridge and western trough.
Will have to keep an eye out for river flooding for those in the lower-mid MS & Ohio Valleys as the combination of heavy rainfall & snowmelt upstream will put significant strain on the Mississippi river and some of the major tributaries.
Yeah, they use to be more conservative. If they mentioned a winter threat it was a very good sign. I guess they now need the "clicks".
I think it's more to do with social media bringing up potential threats so early, maybe they feel obligated to at least give it a mention in the AFDs? Idk, just a guess.
On another note, is February looking warm or cold? Anybody saying anything about it? I forgot.
I suppose in the grand scheme of things, the suffering of SE winter weather lovers should take a back seat to the good this winter's pattern has been as a whole for people.
The US west has gotten some desperately needed precipitation. The Mississippi River watershed was so moisture-starved that it wasn't long ago shipping almost ground to a halt. And, had a bitterly cold winter occurred in the heavily populated US midwest and east, along with Europe, we'd been in one heck of an energy crisis.
Of course we have Webber's take. And this covers the first third of the month (which agrees with Webber):
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If the pattern actually looked cold & legitimately good for snow like it did in late December, I'd let you know about it.
Thanks!!
JHS
Member
We may very well be going to see it get warmer and drier for 2-3 weeks now. The rest of winter and into spring may be a lot like 1999.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z GFS already looks worse.
Snowlove33
Member
Honestly after the short lived December cold we had where I thought we had a legitimate shot of seeing some wintry weather which turned out the usual cold and dry that was waisted with nothing to show for I knew then this winter was going to be a can of worms and I knew it was best to punt winter and move on to spring… and I agree with @Webberweather53 with all the information he has been putting out because he’s been right
LickWx
Member
For the snow-starved head to Mars!
