Ron Burgundy
Member
Huh. Pretty aggressive for FFC, sort of
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Huh. Pretty aggressive for FFC, sort ofTornadocane
Member
I've seen the models nail the path and marginal temperatures (34-36 degrees) for a Coastal Storm forecasted to transition precip. to all rain (39-41) a couple days before the event, but fails to depict the dynamic cooling that pulls down your temperature way faster than the mid and lower level warn air can filter-in from the Ocean (23-26). Now you're all snow. Maybe a ping or two from sleet pellets. The forecast goes from 1-3" to 8-18" in NE NJ, and Long Island is sitting at a balmy 45 degrees.
NCSNOW
Member
Time to get the clubs out. Seriously in jeopardy of 1st ever shutout unless a March miracle. From 18Z. EL- NINO CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS SE.
90 degree cart rule in effect for Feb.
90 degree cart rule in effect for Feb.
NCSNOW
Member
CFS is garbage out till March 3. Same backyard weather we been having. Lot of rain. Pray we get some freezing nights, so stuff doesnt bloom early. Fruit trees esp.
06z will probably be major Ice storm on the GFS. lol
Edit: 00Z CMC = Sucky Sucky
Wow just WOW what a winter we have going...
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In 25 years of business we have never had a winter where we never put out brine or salt. Still a ways to go but this could be the first. Jever thought in a winter where we hit 3 degree lows we would never see snow or ice storms
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Outside of this potential in-situ CAD next Sunday, not really anything to be excited about in the longer term, unless you don’t like snow
NCSNOW
Member
Yea my bar has been lowered to where If the mulch and trash can lid get covered with something besides frost, I'll cash out and call it a win, cause the streak stayed alive.
The 6z GFS is the ultimate TROLL, lol. Cold Rain Friday, Gets cold enough for frozen Sat into Sunday but dries up. Then late Sunday as the cold pulls out, it whips up a big coastal and throws moisture back over us for mid 30's rain again. Its really comical at this point, just have to laugh at it, with it.
Canadian though slaps a few hours of ice at I 95 before cold air retreats:
NCSNOW
Member
Yea its gonna take a March into April hail mary at best. Honestly if March is gonna flip, their is zero sign of it so far. Still have a few weeks so we can leave the jury out.
iGRXY
Member
Only we would figure out how to get 1040+ HP with a record breaking 50/50 low and the coldest air in the northern hemisphere not only on outside of the planet but in our source region and manage to get it in between S/Ws. It’s almost comical at this point.
I’ll be honest, once we get towards March by enthusiasm for cold and snow is gone. You get a whole new set up obstacles to fight through on top of the usual stuff and even if you do score, it’ll be gone in 48 hours tops. February is a wash. Our only hope is about a 10 day window likely at the tail end of February through the first week of March and that’s probably it. Then we transition to the typical cold spring.
I’ll be honest, once we get towards March by enthusiasm for cold and snow is gone. You get a whole new set up obstacles to fight through on top of the usual stuff and even if you do score, it’ll be gone in 48 hours tops. February is a wash. Our only hope is about a 10 day window likely at the tail end of February through the first week of March and that’s probably it. Then we transition to the typical cold spring.
The La Nina party is still in control.
ATLwxfan
Member
Can you imagine what it would be like if El Niño actually returns? More rain than we’ve had…lol.
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ATLwxfan
Member
With how topsy turvy it’s been it is not out of the question this pattern persists in the spring.
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iGRXY
Member
Best shot for anything during February will likely be the same areas of Ark, W TN, northern Mississippi, N Louisiana, and CAD areas. CAD areas almost certainly would be ice if we can get anything at all. The only positive from ensembles is we are going to keep swinging Atlantic troughs through behind the SER so a lot of CAD days are likely and you maybe able to sneak something in that type of pattern.
yep I moved on from winter but really need some dry weeks to dry up mud. If we get lucky for winter weather we will be ready but not losing sleep on model runs anytime soon especially outside of 5 days or even closerYea my bar has been lowered to where If the mulch and trash can lid get covered with something besides frost, I'll cash out and call it a win, cause the streak stayed alive.
The 6z GFS is the ultimate TROLL, lol. Cold Rain Friday, Gets cold enough for frozen Sat into Sunday but dries up. Then late Sunday as the cold pulls out, it whips up a big coastal and throws moisture back over us for mid 30's rain again. Its really comical at this point, just have to laugh at it, with it.
Canadian though slaps a few hours of ice at I 95 before cold air retreats:
They're probably not going to get any better from here either. It doesn't matter if it's La Nina, El Nino, 4th year Nina, Nada, Nino^-1 West, or anything else. Every winter is above normal and you have to scratch and claw to even get an event to track, much less come to fruition. We spend the bulk of our climo-favored time +7 now, with maybe some mercy cold late in the season and through the Spring.
I used to enjoy heading into Winter and looked forward to all of the seasonal forecasts. Not anymore. It's simply just foolish to produce a cold outlook anymore. There seem to be literally no combination of variables that lead to anything lower than maybe a -1 for the winter. It sucks.
SnowNiner
Member
Doesn't feel much like la Nina. I'm not sure I remember a winter so wet. Certainly not typical I don't think. For some underlying reason, conditions just want to se ridge and western though the last several years, and I'm not sure it's la Nina. My guess is next year we Nino. And we get more of the same. But thats my hunch.
The good news is we save a lot of time model watching, this is the probably the least amount of time I have spent on looking at models in a winter...ever.
But, we appear to be headed to our typical Feb pattern, maybe even worse.
rburrel2
Member
Ice threat looking less likely now. Remind me not to bet against eps even when gefs and cmce look great. Sigh
ATLwxfan
Member
You do get the sense that our baseline climate state for the winter is wet and mild. El Niño and La Niña not really effecting that one way or another. At least not in the mid south and Deep South.
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Yes, and the spring and summers will be cooler than normal so we move towards a uni-season. Lows in the fifties and highs in the lower eighties all year, with high humidity.
Yeah, all the rain is unusual. We're supposed be warm and dry. The primary storm tracks have been correct but we seem to be getting much more moisture pulled from the Atlantic. If we do go into an el nino (or neutral) we should at least have the storm track shift to the east coast. The problem then is the cold source to our north will be warmer. But, I would rather take my chances with that than what we've been going through.
This is probably the worst cycle of weather for January in recent memory. Same song and dance every week. Rain, cloud, cloud, rain, cloud, rain, dense fog
This is a lethal environment for people battling depression. Stay strong, Kings. Spring is coming
This is a lethal environment for people battling depression. Stay strong, Kings. Spring is coming
See, now this looks good. But the 6z run is so awful, I'm not going to bother posting it.
If there is a caveat to all of this, you said it. The only things increasing in the warmer seasons are the rain totals and low temperatures from higher average humidity. Summer high temperatures really haven't moved that much, and it does seem like we are moving more toward a lower latitude type uniseason.
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smast16
Member
New seasonal forecast for every year.
Mid Oct - Thanksgiving: Below Normal. Followed by a warmup to at least mid December. From Mid December to Mid February there will be a cold period below normal and everything else will be +3 or greater. Then a flip back to below normal for March till early or Mid April.
Yeah the fact that we’ve had a La Niña last for 3 years, but have continued to get basically get average to above average rainfall is something. As you said the storm tracks have been correct for Niña climo… I would guess that warm SST’s off the southeast coast are contributing to more moisture getting pulled in however
JHS
Member
We need another period like 1977-1985, but I do not see it happening.
Reads like an old farmers almanac forecast.
It goes in cycles. For me the best period was 1996-2004. I do find it funny when I hear people talk about how bad things have been for snow the last few years. We have at least had some decent snowfalls. The period of 1989-1993 was far worse at least for the CLT area. No measurable snowfall and the number of times of getting just flurries can be counted on 1 hand.
For my lifetime and this is all in NC for 60yrs, it seems the SER has become more of a metastasized feature and doesn't get pushed around as much so to speak as it once did for this area. It's more of a dominant feature in winters now. Maybe I'm just misremembering though.
iGRXY
Member
TBH this period of 2019-now hasn't been all that great tbh. We had 2 Large storms - 1 got the Western southeast a couple of years ago and 1 got us in the CAD region last year. Different regions have gotten novelty events here and there whether it be a over performing clipper in Northern Georgia and extreme western upstate SC, or the nice storm that hit the Southeastern Upstate and eastern piedmont all the way to the coast last year. But generally we are clawing to just get a grass topper. Other than the mountains, no one has had more than 1 big snow in the last 4 years anywhere in the southeast.
I’m in my mid 40s so don’t have quite as long a memory but there has certainly been periods where the SER had just as much control as what we’ve seen the last few years. The time period that I mentioned earlier wasn’t just lacking in snowfall but in cold in the southeast in general with very mild periods for the entire east coast… heck even more recently we saw a similar period from 2005-2009. Going back, my mother used to always talk about how mild winters in the 50s were and my grandmother spoke of how warm the 30s were.
rburrel2
Member
The last decade has been great for Campobello, no? I'd guess they're averaging over 6 inches per season the last 10 years. The cut off south of there is brutal though. Probably only averaging 2 inches or maybe less in Southern Greenville/Spartanburg counties.
No doubt… it hasn’t been good… I guess all that I’m saying that we’ve seen periods like this in the past
Avalanche
Member
Before my time
If you squint real hard… 
iGRXY
Member
We can do much better than those south of Spartanburg for sure, but it requires the overall pattern or storm to work for most on this board for me to get anything. The perks of living here is when we do get a storm I fight off warm noses longer, it's generally anywhere from 2-5 degrees colder than those south of 85, I benefit from the lift of the 3500ft mountains only about 5-10 miles to my NW, and in tight CAD events I tend to hold a degree or 2 lower than those around the interstate. the winters of 19-20 and 20-21 for example a friend lives a mile N of 85 got a dusting from each of the handful of novelty snow events and I got around 0.5-1". During 32 Degree rains of 20-21 he got exactly that while I was a degree or 2 colder so I got ice on the trees and bushes. It's just little stuff like that, that counts and helps but for me to see snow or ice it takes the same things for anyone else east of the mountains and along and north of 85 to happen for me to score. Living this far north of the interstate and having an extra 300-400 ft in average elevation vs those along the interstate is great though no doubt and really really helps in marginal setups especially.
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Such a tease. The soundings don't favor snow, even in the mountains.