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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

severestorm said:
SSW Happening

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Really? Are we sure. Been a lot of talk
 
severestorm said:
SSW Happening

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No it’s not

Need the zonal winds to reverse for this to classify as a SSW and it’s not even close here (notice the graph doesn’t even extend below 0 ms-1.) In fact, the polar vortex will immediately recover largely to where it was before in a few days, thanks in large part to the raging +NAO and no Scandinavian blocking in the troposphere. The only effect a minor warming event like this could be having is making the MJO even stronger in the warm phases during the coming weeks

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Webberweather53 said:
Not surprising to me, but the subx multi model mean has an 80-90% chance of a ridge over the SE US for the bulk of February

View attachment 131574
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I see nothing different down the road in February as what I just experienced in January. Only my 6th January since 81-82 in my 40 years of living around here in the Forest City area with no frozen precip recorded in January. How much less snow or snow chances can you get in February when have got the big goose egg so far in January in the frozen department. Nothing at all. I see the temperature pattern in February the same as January, a few cold days highs in the 40's and more than a few colder nights in the 20's maybe mid to low 20's mixed in then moderation back to highs in the 50s and maybe a few 60's at times. Maybe a few. First 10 days of February around here are looking slightly below average to average. I'm betting the farm in February if you want winter weather it can't be any worse than than what this winter has been so far. Just a continuation of cold rain wedge here east of the mountains as usual with highs in the 30's and 40's for a couple days. Rain stops, a dry day or two and we have some days with highs 40s with lows back in the 20's at night and then we warmup just enough and do some more cold rain all over again and then again. I just don't see the difference in your prior post about about when you said well if you think January has been bad for winter weather just wait till February it will be worse. No offense at all but I just don't see the difference through the first 10 days of February or after for that matter. Looks like the same kind of January continuation pattern to me.
 
J1C1111 said:
I see nothing different down the road in February as what I just experienced in January. Only my 6th January since 81-82 in my 40 years of living around here in the Forest City area with no frozen precip recorded in January. How much less snow or snow chances can you get in February when have got the big goose egg so far in January in the frozen department. Nothing at all. I see the temperature pattern in February the same as January, a few cold days highs in the 40's and more than a few colder nights in the 20's maybe mid to low 20's mixed in then moderation back to highs in the 50s and maybe a few 60's at times. Maybe a few. First 10 days of February around here are looking slightly below average to average. I'm betting the farm in February if you want winter weather it can't be any worse than than what this winter has been so far. Just a continuation of cold rain wedge here east of the mountains as usual with highs in the 30's and 40's for a couple days. Rain stops, a dry day or two and we have some days with highs 40s with lows back in the 20's at night and then we warmup just enough and do some more cold rain all over again and then again. I just don't see the difference in your prior post about about when you said well if you think January has been bad for winter weather just wait till February it will be worse. No offense at all but I just don't see the difference through the first 10 days of February or after for that matter. Looks like the same kind of January continuation pattern to me.
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This whole response is wishcasting. Mid February is almost certainly going to be warmer than what we've seen the last few weeks, both in a mean and anomaly sense.

WK34temp.gif
 
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