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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread

NCSNOW said:
Fog has been something else on an off this past month, espeacilly these past few days. Tonight is no different. Looks like front has made it into and through va/nc border counties. Hopefully it will scour these w/o conditions out of here.

Wednesdays high temp should be at 12:01 tonight.
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I ran tonight and with how sweaty I was I was literally steaming afterwards, haha.
 
CaryWx said:
Well that's a look on the 12k. If it's there at 48hrs might be on to something. 69hrs is not such an unbelievable range
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It was on the prior run, too, IIRC. Who knows, maybe rates truly can overcome. Could set up a band of T-3” type totals if it comes to fruition.
 
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Improvement, I guess? Honestly, if we're able to squeeze out more than a T from this before NYC I'll take that as a W.
 
From Rah AFD

A few models were hinting at the possibility of sleet for an hour or two near the VA border Thursday morning, however confidence was too low to include that in the forecast.

Lol they haven't seen the NAM this morning ??
 
metwannabe said:
3k further south, starting to look like the SE may see some legit snow fall on the backside. Obviously not buying those totals, just showing potential for snow to be falling

View attachment 131954
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At this point anything white falling from the sky would be a win during this dumpster fire of a winter
 
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Of course my area has a small chance of some snow this weekend. Probably because I'll be out of town :mad:. If you see any flakes you're welcome. Local WFO isn't onboard with a turnover to all snow YET but maybe a rain/snow mix. From their disco.....

"Thursday and Friday...Robust southern stream trough pushes
across the Gulf states and Southeast, pushing a strong front
through the area Fri. Rain likely Thu into Friday morning, with
periods of moderate to locally heavy rain possible late Thu
into early Fri morning. Temps will fall behind the front Fri
as strong CAA develops. Still doesn`t look like any ptype
concerns with cold air chasing the moisture Friday. However, the
GFS and NAM both show potential for brief RA/SN mix as precip
ends along the southern forecast area Friday afternoon. Will
continue to monitor that, though given sfc temps well above
freezing, etc. no impacts expected at this time. Below normal
temps will continue with highs in the 40s."
 
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Roughly 15/20 GFS ensemble members have a brief changeover or at the very least rain mixing with snow over parts of NC Friday morning (hr 54).
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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
Roughly 15/20 GFS ensemble members have a brief changeover or at the very least rain mixing with snow over parts of NC Friday morning (hr 54).
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I need precip a little more North and a slower exit, don't think I'm asking too much.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
That's a likeable trend if true. Weak low pops up over southern GA on the latest run of the 12k NAM.
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This literally is what needs to happen for this to occur and it's how you can get a last hour Northwest trend for sure. Today's model run should be interesting
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Does it?

View attachment 131955
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I was referring to the time beyond this upcoming borderline/tenuous event - which I hope delivers.

We have not seen an arctic airmass since Christmas and are not predicted to see one for what is left of winter. Not even out into fantasy land. Persistence is the hot hand. You’re taking your chances if you’re not betting on it.


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ATLwxfan said:
I was referring to the time beyond this upcoming borderline/tenuous event - which I hope delivers.

We have not seen an arctic airmass since Christmas and are not predicted to see one for what is left of winter. Not even out into fantasy land. Persistence is the hot hand. You’re taking your chances if you’re not betting on it.


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We’re seeing an Arctic airmass this weekend. Also the SER “dominated” February looks choppy at the very least verbatim on the GFS 1675256801482.gif
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
We’re seeing an Arctic airmass this weekend. Also the SER “dominated” February looks choppy at the very least verbatim on the GFS View attachment 131956
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Ens means are likely to look more ridged
in the E than reality. It's still a normal to above pattern but it's hard to think it's one of those 588 domes sitting over the region for 5-7 days
 
SD said:
Ens means are likely to look more ridged
in the E than reality. It's still a normal to above pattern but it's hard to think it's one of those 588 domes sitting over the region for 5-7 days
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Yeah certainly seeing signs as we get into the medium range that a little ridging pops up out west to give us a dump of some cold and a rabbit out of the hats chance at something if we can get lucky at some point .. I’ll take it I guess
 
SD said:
Ens means are likely to look more ridged
in the E than reality. It's still a normal to above pattern but it's hard to think it's one of those 588 domes sitting over the region for 5-7 days
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Btw, if we continue with some backside snow trends with the 12z model suite I'm going to fire up a winter nuisance thread to keep it out of the main Feb discussion thread.
 
Probably wont work out in the end, but this is your classic case of long range models showing a storm... then takes it away completely in medium range, and then comes back in the short range situation.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not very encouraging, maybe some IP ?? View attachment 131961View attachment 131962
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I looked at the sounding at the same time on the 3k NAM and the column was saturated. The only thing that was bad was the surface temps. New 12z is rolling out now. Let's see what it says here in a little bit. I definitely trust the 3k NAM more, but hour 54 is way out there for that model that only goes to 60.
 
packfan98 said:
I looked at the sounding at the same time on the 3k NAM and the column was saturated. The only thing that was bad was the surface temps. New 12z is rolling out now. Let's see what it says here in a little bit. I definitely trust the 3k NAM more, but hour 54 is way out there for that model that only goes to 60.
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You need the NAM to be within 6 hours of the event if you want to even get close to the window where you would trust its snowfall output.
 
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