rburrel2
Member
JMA still looks very good. It's been the most consistent with this threat.
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Pattern Fail or Fab February 2023 Pattern Thread
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
12z EPS looks good to me. Slow and dig the 50-50 low a little more, and the surface high will intensify + shift further to the west. As things stand now, shaping up to be one of the bigger "hybrid" - in situ-based CADs I can remember.
Insane to see a 1033mb sfc high right over the piedmont of NC on an ensemble mean this far out. We'd be happy to have a high like that over New England in a CAD event. Testament to how cold this air mass is gonna be, especially for the CAD source regions to our NE.
Insane to see a 1033mb sfc high right over the piedmont of NC on an ensemble mean this far out. We'd be happy to have a high like that over New England in a CAD event. Testament to how cold this air mass is gonna be, especially for the CAD source regions to our NE.
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Will that 1033 be very deep or is it still quite shallow despite the pressure and location?
SE can vortex 3 run trend, we’re giving ourselves more room and a bigger window with this trend 
EPS right now is a mainly nuisance type event per it’s mean, but with that trend to a slower SE Canada vortex, if our wave speeds up just a bit, or the vortex trends stronger, a more moderate ice threat is possible. It’s bleak on the euro models but it’s a 4-6 hour faster wave away from a more GFS-GEFS-CMCE solution honestly
I noticed a few days ago, the potential and to keep an eye on it. Even if the models aren't showing something, this is the kind of situation that will sneak up on you fast.
The models have not been very good with moisture timing for a while now, as icing on the cake. IMBY, moisture has been arriving much earlier than globals have been showing so it just makes sense for them to not handle this so great either.
The models have not been very good with moisture timing for a while now, as icing on the cake. IMBY, moisture has been arriving much earlier than globals have been showing so it just makes sense for them to not handle this so great either.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You can see pretty clearly in this loop as the vortex backs up, the waves upstream of it slow down and crumple. Nice temporary atmospheric traffic jam aloft over Atlantic Canada.
This icon trend with the SE can vortex is comical, and continues 
The result is far more intense cold bleeding further south/lasting somewhat longer
iGRXY
Member
I suspect globals are wanting to have our High exit too fast. A deepening vortex like what is being shown is going to come to a crawl and stop the flow.
iGRXY
Member
That 50/50 is serious and the trend of a further press SE is big. Need to keep this going. I suspect we will start seeing the HP slowing up in future runs
18Z has the SE Canadian vortex even further SE and then parks a 1045Mb HP over the Mid-Atlantic. Cold, but the shortwave upstream looks rather anemic this run. Cloudy and cold?
18z GFS not ideal vortex more NE
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GFS went the wrong way. A reverse happy hour. Mother Nature throws the Arctic tundra at the Eastern Us & in return gives all of a us a rain storm 36-48 hours later. This Winter is an air ball.
I’m getting crippling ice cold rain vibes from this system. Pattern is too reliant on every piece fitting in place like a jigsaw puzzle. More likely things aren’t going to fit. Time to wait for late February and early march
IDK…this just looks like to me that we’re gonna have plenty of cold air to work with which is always the first key. That 18z GFS almost looks like that PV is just too strong and wanting to squash everything which is surprising with how the SER is flexing this week.
GEFS is colder though and still trending stronger with damming high 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've noticed over the last few days, the models have tended to flip back to more progressive looks w/ the 50-50 low on the 6z & 18z runs, only to reverse it and continue the digging/slowing trend on the following 0z + 12z runs. Might have something to do w/ assimilating new, fresh RAOB data on the 0z + 12z suites being able to more adequately capture the TPV lobe diving out of Canada.
rburrel2
Member
In case anyone was wondering GEFS members on cod weather had 12 out of 20 widespread advisory level hits to CAD regions of NC/SC. It had 4 out of 20 showing winter storm warning criteria storms, per my guestimations. So more/less it held serve with the 12z run.
rburrel2
Member
I think it's going to be a while before we have any idea how the storm system will shake out. The range of solutions is just so wide right now for how the trough evolves after the pacific storm squishes across the ridge and through the rockies. I don't see that being settled anytime soon.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Virtually every GFS ensemble member has sub-freezing temps in the western piedmont of NC early on Sunday immediately prior to the arrival of precipitation.
A period of freezing rain &/or sleet changing to rain seems like a good bet to me in the piedmont of NC on Sunday.
A period of freezing rain &/or sleet changing to rain seems like a good bet to me in the piedmont of NC on Sunday.
Personally, I feel better about a threat being legit when we take baby steps to get there 24 to 72 hours out.
iGRXY
Member
TPV was pressing further south west. That’s good to continue to see
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I don’t know if you saw the graph I posted earlier but 00z ENS means aren’t scoring as good as 12z. I don’t know if that translates to the off hours
18z euro has a slight south TPV but the wave entering the west coast was slightly slower
iGRXY
Member
Anyone got the 18z Canadian and CMCE
18z EPS looks worse wave is non existent
To my knowledge, only the Canadian RDPS (short term high res) and RDPS Ensemble (REPS) are available at 06z and 18z, and the REPS only goes out to 72 hours on Meteocentre (link below). It looks like it is running behind on that site for some reason as the latest run on there for the REPS is the Jan 30 06z run
Link:
Nomanslandva
Member
It's off cycle, we punt. But seriously, the 12 z EPS for the weekend gave us about a 2-5 % chance of anything meaningful.
It doesn’t matter. The models are bad but not that bad. Winter storms don’t just sneak up on you anymore. If the models aren’t showing anything it’s because there’s nothing there.
iGRXY
Member
Furthest thing from the truth.
radiosonde ascents help validate better predictability
Last year none of the models saw our biggest snow event in January 24-48 hours out. Only the RGEM had a clue .. we trended from nothing to widespread snow at 24 degrees. Models can certainly still get things wrong at this range but in this scenario I’m not really big on seeing a big ice storm unless we get some pretty drastic changes over the next day or so .. onset ice out west to a dreaded cold rain for all looks to be in the cards here
NAM also trying to give us a nice 35 degree rain for Wednesday night into Thursday ?
NAM also trying to give us a nice 35 degree rain for Wednesday night into ThursdayView attachment 131880
Just got to love it! It’s unbelievable how many days and nights I’ve had 30s and rain this winter. #smh
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hmm…
NCSNOW
Member
Go play the 0z RDPS from start to finish hr 84. Frozen from LA to Southern VA continous over- runing and we rain at 33. Like 3 straight days.
Stormlover
Member
LOL, yes they do, whether it's colder air moving farther south than models say, or path of the low, yes they do fail often.
NCSNOW
Member
We are the masters at bad timing
