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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

CMC is trying but still need that energy to dig further west
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Look out folks, the 12Z GEFS is becoming more bullish for subsequent cold after next week’s cold! Unlike yesterday’s 18Z GEFS, which did NOT support its operational, the 12Z GEFS sort of is supporting its colder operational. Maybe next week’s cold is not the last strong shot:

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ForsythSnow said:
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My map is a 24 hour snowfall ending at hour 288. One of your maps is of snow depth, not snowfall. Also, one of your maps ends at hour 360 (the 15 day snowfall). Finally, different sources employ different formulas to calculate snowfall. (You know that.)

Edit: My map shows only greater than 0.50”

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GaWx said:
Look out folks, the 12Z GEFS is becoming more bullish for subsequent cold after next week’s cold! Unlike yesterday’s 18Z GEFS, which did NOT support its operational, the 12Z GEFS sort of is supporting its colder operational. Maybe next week’s cold is not the last strong shot:

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Faucet has been on all winter. Just hope it don’t get cut off now lol
 
GaWx said:
My map is a 24 hour snowfall ending at hour 288. One of your maps is of snow depth, not snowfall. Also, one of your maps ends at hour 360 (the 15 day snowfall). Finally, different sources employ different formulas to calculate snowfall. (You know that.)

Edit: My map shows only greater than 0.50”

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Sure one of them ends later, but that's because I wanted to show a bit beyond the timeframe to justify that it's not shown. Snow depth I also know is different, but with 3" on that map it looks like a joke if there is nothing on even the snow depth map. Atop that, soundings do not support snowfall as depicted on that map. The DGZ is too dry, thus it's anafrontal and cold chasing moisture. I don't think those maps have an accurate calculation of snowfall.
 
Storm5 said:
Some noise for late next week . But that’s all it it at this point
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It would have to tap gulf moisture in order to be a event outside the mountains


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ForsythSnow said:
Sure one of them ends later, but that's because I wanted to show a bit beyond the timeframe to justify that it's not shown. Snow depth I also know is different, but with 3" on that map it looks like a joke if there is nothing on even the snow depth map. Atop that, soundings do not support snowfall as depicted on that map. The DGZ is too dry, thus it's anafrontal and cold chasing moisture. I don't think those maps have an accurate calculation of snowfall.
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I don’t think any clown maps are accurate to be honest. I think you’re right though that my source’s map likely is showing too much snowfall in N GA in this case.

But the idea was to show that it had snow falling, not the exact amount.
 
Jessy89 said:
It would have to tap gulf moisture in order to be a event outside the mountains


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If this storm keeps on trending west in time and dig more do you think we have a chance again to see something out of it or is it just only a mountain event
 
If we learned ANYTHING from yesterday's storm, we shouldn't be trying to determine exact locations, amounts, storm track until we get into the 3-5 day range. It never works out the way models indicate this far out. All we have right now is pattern recognition. Anyone from the Midsouth to the Carolina's and GA stands a chance of something.
 
Clem282340 said:
If this storm keeps on trending west in time and dig more do you think we have a chance again to see something out of it or is it just only a mountain event
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Sure if it digs enough west of us and picks up gulf moisture. It would put a lot of people at play. But we see just something to watch not a threat yet


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GeorgiaGirl said:
Picked up 1.74" of rain in the last batch yesterday. This will be used for testing purposes/for fun, but as a reference, here are what some models have up until the next round ends in my area...

12z GFS: 1.21" and 0z GFS: 1.10"
12z Euro: 1.24"
18z NAM: 1.8"
0z HRRR: 1.07"

Kinda striking how close the GFS/Euro is, even though it's close range, but will look at this after the precip is over and see how much I actually got in comparison.
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Revisiting this now, my dad said we picked up 1.15". Not sure what the 0z Euro had before time, but for this test purposes, the last GFS on the night before the rain was the closest!
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Looking ahead I think we are done. I believe back in late January I also did not favor March for anyone outside of the mtns. All chasing will likely be above 3,000ft. Some cold shots sure but looks wet for anyone East of the mtns including here.
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I conquer! We were done back in late December for I-20 folks.
 
Storm5 said:
Cool if we are done we will see y’all next winter


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Yep. Show yourself out. Nobody here can predict the future no matter how hard they bittercast. Would have never thought with the horrible teleconnections and the pac jet that we would get a decent snow in north metro ATL a couple of weeks ago. But we did.


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This will be a western deal here. Once this air pushes eastward we may have another opportunity in the Carolinas. Still chasing unicorns, nonetheless. 1E5FD094-E17D-4D75-B186-5371FE6151F1.png
 
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