Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even though the GFS is biased, here comes a big west Pacific MJO event... right on schedule.
Monster westerly wind burst might be incoming.
Monster westerly wind burst might be incoming.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A reason worth watching may be simply because if we keep drawing El Ninos which historically favor colder/stormier weather relative to NINAs (even in this base state), one of them is bound to be halfway decent.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Every el Nino in recent years has been nothing but horrible. Bring on the la Nina's! Those years we get colder it seems and actual snow. I have a feeling that an overactive stj causes us to be just a bit too warm.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nope, granted this year’s base state already seems more advanced and the WWBs have been much more frequent. That gigantic WP MJO event in late January and early February 2018 and the associated WWB definitely set the stage for the weak nino in 18-19.
The cold part is simply not true (at least based on actual ATL data) as even the recent La Ninas have averaged 1 F warmer than recent El Niños. The last few La Ninas have been absolute torches when averaged out! This sounds like selective memory to me as regards the average temperature aspect. Now the snow aspect of recent La Ninas happens to be a different story as I already acknowledged. But I also mentioned that that could very well be due mainly to the randomness often associated with SE snowstorms.
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whatalife
Moderator
Yes. I would tend to agree. I would personal take my chances with an El Nino as you stating over a Nina any day.
fwiw GFS for the clipper system
I'll check back in March 2021 and we will both still be at 0
weatherfide
Member
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They may average warmer, but they can deliver some frigid cold air at times. El Niño’s can’t do this and so we have cold rain only. I’m with Forsyth. Ninas are better than ninos for at least something frozen.
Goodness, that SER is really a force On the GEFS, wouldn't suprise me if here in the Carolinas someone hits 80 degrees with 80s in the other part of the SE with this second SER flex 
I told em it was gonna be hot under that ridge in late winter. ??
..I see some records up for grabs
I told em it was gonna be hot under that ridge in late winter. ??
Yeah I agree
Brent
Member
I think I'm gonna bite the bullet and chase to Wichita Falls tonight. I don't think I can sit this out with 2 days off work and hope for a rogue sleet pellet here after all this time I've spent on it this week lol. It looks to be close to whatever bullseye there is here(at least 6 inches)
Where is this info coming from? Yes, El Ninos absolutely can and have delivered frigid air many times into the SE. El Ninos can't deliver frigid air and there's cold rain only? This is so false. You need to prove your assertion with non-misleading facts as this is a science board.
We’re going to have to quit lumping our winters into “El Niño” or “La Niña”. It’s obvious at this point that the waters in the east-central Equatorial Pacific aren’t the only thing determining what type of winter we will have. Just my two pennies
Bingo. For one, the waters in and around Indonesia have been more of a factor recently amongst other things. Also, to further muddy up the waters, there are El Nino patterns during La Ninas and vice versa. ENSO is just one index although it is still often a pretty influential one from a seasonal standpoint.