Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Well judging by its last performance, the euro has until 12Z the day of the event to get it correct.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
This. I would lean on the Ukie
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
This will probably happen since the snow stops right at the Wake County line.
We're living in amazing times weatherwise:
twitter.com
from Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf
·
"Euro model continues to advertise record Arctic Oscillation (+AO) next weekend. Why? Huge low pressure in the Arctic with min pressure of 938 mb - for perspective that's on par with Hurricane Matthew. Result: 250 mph Jet Stream in North Atlantic. Most cold air trapped in Arctic.
"
Now let's see how cold the Arctic can get by next week! Going to be fun to follow.
Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) | Twitter
The latest Tweets from Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf). CBS News Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University, MA Climate Columbia U. 5/20. Past CBS Miami/NYC/Tampa/Palm Beach. New York, NY
twitter.com
from Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf
·
"Euro model continues to advertise record Arctic Oscillation (+AO) next weekend. Why? Huge low pressure in the Arctic with min pressure of 938 mb - for perspective that's on par with Hurricane Matthew. Result: 250 mph Jet Stream in North Atlantic. Most cold air trapped in Arctic.
"Now let's see how cold the Arctic can get by next week! Going to be fun to follow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Whatever chance(s) we had of getting a legitimate Nina this summer are rapidly fading. CANSIPS (& other climate models) are playing catch up to the increasingly obvious central Pacific El Nino that's developing.
The Euro and GEFS are not only predicting the first +5+ AO during met winter since 1992-3, but they're also predicting a record high near +6!
I counted only 7 peaks above +5.0 for the AO since 1950:
- Highest: +5.911 (2/26/1990)..will be threatened in about a week!
- 2nd highest: +5.588 (3/8/2015)(only one not during met winter)
- 3rd highest: +5.582 (1/14/1989)
- 4th highest: +5.245 (1/14/1993)
- 5th highest: +5.147 (2/9/1990)
- 6th highest: +5.078 (1/20/1957)
- 7th highest: +5.040 (12/9/1979)
I counted only 7 peaks above +5.0 for the AO since 1950:
- Highest: +5.911 (2/26/1990)..will be threatened in about a week!
- 2nd highest: +5.588 (3/8/2015)(only one not during met winter)
- 3rd highest: +5.582 (1/14/1989)
- 4th highest: +5.245 (1/14/1993)
- 5th highest: +5.147 (2/9/1990)
- 6th highest: +5.078 (1/20/1957)
- 7th highest: +5.040 (12/9/1979)
I will look at the stats when I get home but I feel like RDU averaged more snow since 2000 in nina/cold netural versus nino.
Regardless I am all for ninas so maybe we can take a shot at shaking things up globally. Continuing to throw nino's out there isn't going to change the base state we are in.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The advancement towards El Nino this spring will continue for the foreseeable future. -NPO/+TNH/-EPO/-WPO coupled w/ persistence of tropical +AAM is indicative of a pattern that favors weak trades in the eastern Pacific. The next westerly wind burst could really set this event off and forestall any NINA until after early-mid summer.
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Nino summers tend to have more thunderstorm activity if I recall which helps to keep the highs relatively cool. I seem to recall they help steer the hurricanes away a bit too.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
+23 departure from normal today. 77F
Stormlover
Member
Wow, that canadian hammers just a few miles from me
JHS
Member
Not a record though. It in the low 80's this day in 1989. Then down in the teens 7 days later.
Edit: Actually only officially 78 at GSP on 2-3-1989 but it did reach 80 where I am.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Almost time for me to officially throw in the towel on this winter.
pcbjr
Member
Fab Feb!!!
Don’t worry, we still have late March and early April, right?
tennessee storm
Member
didn't know where to put this, but day 10 euro is looking quite ominous with the h5 pattern for a big system to produce some significant severe weather over quite a large area , if it holds... the teleconnections are lining up for a big system around that timeframe close the pre valentines day area... there is also some growing ensemble support for this.