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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

How far out does the off hrs euro go to trying to see if that storm it showed on the 12z euro around the 200 hr Mark is still there or not
 
Shawn said:
I'm not exactly sure people wanting a board wide snowstorm want a super cold Arctic air mass plunging down. I'll take my chances with the in-between though, that's for sure!
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The last events that I think would have qualified as boardwide were Jan of 1977 and Feb of 1899. ( @pcbjr included). Both of these were associated with super cold Arctic air.
 
GaWx said:
The last events that I think would have qualified as boardwide were Jan of 1977 and Feb of 1899. ( @pcbjr included). Both of these were associated with super cold Arctic air.
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Was it in place before, or after the events? I just worry about suppression and shearing of any kind of energy we can get going. It's nothing more sad for snow lovers than looking at a potential storm on the 500mb vort charts and see the Northern stream just murder it.
 
Shawn said:
Was it in place before, or after the events? I just worry about suppression and shearing of any kind of energy we can get going. It's nothing more sad for snow lovers than looking at a potential storm on the 500mb vort charts and see the Northern stream just murder it.
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Good question.

1) 2/1899: A first Arctic airmass had preceded the snow. Then there was modification followed by a 2nd Arctic airmass that was biblical. The Gulf low resulting in the snow (blizzardlike) formed on the super cold front that first brought in the super cold with the snow at the same time. It kind of resembled today’s storm in that regard (the timing) in that it got colder as the snow was falling.

2. 1/1977: This was more like an Alberta Clipperlike northern stream system that came in just after the first of two consecutive super cold airmasses. So, moisture was limited. Right after it came the 2nd super cold airmass.
 
JimBobs said:
today's snow storm provides the snow ground cover which will ensure next week's frigidity and subsequent heavy snowfall
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Today’s snowfall will be melted in 24 hours except in a few shady spots (with the exception of some in E NC/SE VA that are getting higher totals.
 
Beginning to wonder if we may end up at average or just slightly above for this month. But the cold showing up at least to me is more run of the mill and probably only ties the lowest, unless you go far south.
 
NCSNOW said:
After mid week Apps runner and backside upslope for mtns, cold comes down. Euro wants to crawl a low/energy across us next Fri late into Sun. Keep an eye out for this time

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Hate to say this! But Joey Baker this morning was talking about possible snow again late next week in the Carolina's!
 
Not sure I have the stamina to follow another event this late in winter but the "potential" in 8-9 days is similar to what we saw yesterday. Trailing wave after a cutter.


Pattern for yesterday
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2200000.png

Modeled pattern for next week


ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-2934400.png
 
KyloG said:
Not sure I have the stamina to follow another event this late in winter but the "potential" in 8-9 days is similar to what we saw yesterday. Trailing wave after a cutter.


Pattern for yesterday
View attachment 36111

Modeled pattern for next week


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Looks like the cold delivery would be better.


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Lickwx said:
Heres to hoping, the last thing I want is month 5 of the same exact averages! I'm not particularly enthused though about the chances given last 10 years.
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You’ll get that in May-Sep. That’s the most “exact” 5 month period of the year just about every year.

Meanwhile, I obviously have not liked the ensemble trends the last 24+ hours for the 11-15 day period. Also, after that great cold period on/around 3/5 on the 18Z GFS, nothing even close has appeared. Still hoping it comes back but at least we have a cold next couple of days and appear to still have the quite cold 6-10 day period to look forward to (should be below the normals for even mid January) before any chance spring returns after a short absence. So, I’m content for now. :D
 
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“How Will Monday’s Forecast Look?

Monday’s 11-15 Day period is expected to feature below normal temperatures in parts of the West. Above normal temperatures are forecast in the South and along the East Coast. In total, the period is expected to yield 108 GWHDDs, which is lower than both the 10-year normal (111) and the 30-year normal (115). The forecast is based on teleconnection trends, which include a continued +AO. The AO is a measure of winds circulating around the Arctic, and a still strong stratospheric polar vortex has a role in maintaining the pattern. Additionally, an eastward mode in the tropics, with increased storminess over anomalously warm waters in the western Pacific (i.e. MJO phase 5-6), support a pattern with –PNA characteristics. Models are trending in this direction within the current 11-15 Day period, and our expectations for Monday’s forecast continues this trend. The combination of the +AO and –PNA offers a warmer Southeast ridge.” from Maxar

Edit: My comment: Until the anomalously warm W Pacific waters cool, we can expect most winters in the SE to remain warm with SER domination. Remember that when you either make winter predictions or read others’ cold winter predictions.
 
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Need to dig a little further west
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Maybe we can later get another Arctic airmass here similar to what the 18Z GFS showed?

EB49F6E6-8379-45CD-9286-F481BB2897A8.png
 
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