Brent
Member
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie
Just 11 more days for it to go awry, huh?
I'll say it has my interest, and I got curious about this time frame when GaWx spoke about early March a couple days ago.
Hey there bro, hope all is well with you. It has my interest as well, but we know how this one will "likely" turn out. I'd give anything for an SLP, riding through the middle part of FL, with cold air locked in place! I guess that's too much to ask for though. lolJust 11 more days for it to go awry, huh?
I'll say it has my interest, and I got curious about this time frame when GaWx spoke about early March a couple days ago.
I’m locked into next weekend. Will chase to the mountains if need be!
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All is well, man! Hope the same on your end as well.
Yeah once I saw that low pop my interest was piqued. Like I said, this time frame caught my attention a couple days ago.
Hopefully, this could be our opportunity. ?
SnowNiner
Member
Yep, I'm taking a mountain trip next weekend so that'll be the perfect time for at least some NW flow showers.
Here comes the ECMWF digging the energy
Very similar to the cmc, wow lol.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
OHHHH CANADA, I hope that upgrade made you more accurate
As long as it snows ? frigid cold/not so frigid cold..pattern is looking ripe nonetheless
Well, way down here where it hardly ever snows, I care more about cold because it is something I can usually actually experience.
Phasers are the ultimate equalizer
whatalife
Moderator
Some support for next weekend by the EPS...For whatever that’s worth considering how poorly they have done...
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Shows you don't necessarily need extreme cold for snow. In fact, I like where the EPS is headed. Just have a look at how it built the western ridge up right at the end of the month. I'm going to go look at the individual members and see if there's something better than what's outside right now.
pcbjr
Member
I realize that but the colder the better from my perspective just because I'd like to see it as cold as possible....nothing to do with snow per se. I would like the bug activity to be muted somewhat this spring plus I enjoy cold, which has been sparse this winter.
Fwiw, the 12Z EPS mean suggests two Arctic highs with the snow threat for parts of the inland SE mainly due to a wave between the highs...of course fwiw that far out in time.
Storm5
Member
Some support for next weekend by the EPS...For whatever that’s worth considering how poorly they done...
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Normally I would be excited but after seeing how poorly the EPS has been lately as you mentioned it’s hard to believe anything outside day 3
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Dawgdaze22
Member
So the south, at the moment, looks like we could have another opportunity?
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Well, I guess I-20 might have a chance of something sneaking in with some of these medium-longer range looks. Not the raw "snow" showing up verbatim, but I like how things are setting up for another chance in the deeper South.
Thankfully as we head towards March, major icing events become less of a threat down this way.
Thankfully as we head towards March, major icing events become less of a threat down this way.
Wow all models agreeing we have multiple chances at some real bombs ... bowling ball after bowling ball coming down .. BRING IT ON
Later in this Happy Hour GFS, look what’s lurking over NW Canada! Let’s see if that ends up plunging down in early March later in the run:
Edit: Well, look at this. It is coming and that is extreme cold/colder than preceding Arctic airmasses!
Look out below!!
Frigid air air coming down!
Freeze down to @pcbjr on 3/5 and hard freezes much of SE with once again at or near coldest of season:
Edit: Well, look at this. It is coming and that is extreme cold/colder than preceding Arctic airmasses!
Look out below!!
Frigid air air coming down!
Freeze down to @pcbjr on 3/5 and hard freezes much of SE with once again at or near coldest of season:
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Jessy89
Member
I really hope we get a legit March snow storm
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mjscott30
Member
At this point, I'd be happy for it to stop raining long enough for the toll bridge to re-open. Snow would be icing on the cake.
cd2play
Member
Wondering if the rest of February will be cold enough to completely offset the early month warmth and we actually end up with a below normal February (even if it's only a fraction of a degree)
Yes a bullseye for Georgia is good 9 days out it should tick a little north for the mtns and Carolinas I would think and rain below GSP.
NoSnowATL
Member
Pufffffff
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Stormlover
Member
it only runs at 12 and 0Z, so what's this?Pufffffff
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NoSnowATL
Member
Stormlover
Member
That's GFS. He posted that in response to someone saying they hoped the Canadian had improved.
Larger view. TT.
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NoSnowATL
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
I personally don’t care what a D9 snow accumulations map looks like. We are just trying to field a team here.
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So, should we be paying attention to a Happy Hour GFS that dumps at or near the coldest air of the season on the SE 2 weeks from today? Normally, I’d say no. But due to analogs and teles like the +AAM and due to the models not seeing the current oncoming Arctic mass as well as last week’s that gave the Midwest their coldest of the season to date until within a week or so before, I’d say watch this one carefully. Note that the origins of this airmass appear to be from NE Siberia just a few days from now that soon after crosses into Alaska before plunging through Canada toward us. Let’s see if future runs show this.
By the way, it had KSAV down to 28 on 3/5, which would be the coldest since way back in January of 2018!
*Edited for correction: NE Siberia, not NW Siberia.
By the way, it had KSAV down to 28 on 3/5, which would be the coldest since way back in January of 2018!
*Edited for correction: NE Siberia, not NW Siberia.
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Personally I think it makes sense for us to get cold considering the patterns we’ve seen at the end of these mild winters going into spring the last couple of years. At least it looks like we may be seeing the cold come in early enough to do us some good in regards to snow chances. 4 of the 6 biggest snows that I’ve personally experienced occurred after 2/25. I always feel if you get a pattern favoring snow here in late February and March, you got a better chance at a big one than you do in January
Snownut
Member
We need cold in place instead of relying on evaperational cooling if we want a decent snow in the SE.
JHS
Member
100% agree with this. Cold air MUST already be in place for most of SC and NC outside of the mountains to get a major snow. 12 hours later on this system would have meant 4-8 inches of snow for many of us. CAD can change rain to ZR or sleet more reliably, but that has not happened since 2015 either.
March 2009 can maybe be called an exception. That did start as rain and went over to a very nice snow event for the area from ATL up to GSO.