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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Check out the models’ forecast for AAM. Note that they’re all rising after midmonth, including even the -AAM biased GEFS almost getting back to 0. The -AAM has correlation with a SER/La Ninaish pattern while a +AAM has the opposite correlation with a Ninoish pattern. SE winter lovers should root for a +AAM to return. The most recent cold spell/retreat of SER was during a stout +AAM after having been negative most of the time back to summer:

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GaWx said:
Check out the models’ forecast for AAM. Note that they’re all rising after midmonth, including even the -AAM biased GEFS almost getting back to 0. The -AAM has correlation with a SER/La Ninaish pattern while a +AAM has the opposite correlation with a Ninoish pattern. SE winter lovers should root for a +AAM to return. The most recent cold spell/retreat of SER was during a stout +AAM:

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The AO will also be dropping at the same time. If we can ever get a -AO that will be interesting.

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GaStorm said:
The AO will also be dropping at the same time. If we can ever get a -AO that will be interesting.

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I think that’s an all-time record high +AO (back to 1950) being shown there on 2/10 of near +6.0! The current record is just over +5.9 if I’m remembering correctly. It can only get better from there. Meanwhile, let’s see if the Arctic can get colder during this very strong +AO. As this graph shows, it is at its coldest of the season and looks like it may be getting colder. Also, note that the coldest normals aren’t til ~2/24-5:

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GaWx said:
I think that’s an all-time record high +AO (back to 1950) being shown there on 2/10 of near +6.0! The current record is just over +5.9 if I’m remembering correctly. It can only get better from there. Meanwhile, let’s see if the Arctic can get colder during this very strong +AO. As this graph shows, it is at its coldest of the season and looks like it may be getting colder. Also, note that the coldest normals aren’t til ~2/24-5:

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I would imagine going from extreme +AO to a -AO would open the door for a good arctic outbreak at some point.
 
Fountainguy97 said:
I would 100% chase this.

NAM DUMPS snow in a short amount of time. .4-.5 qpf falls as snow in just 3 hrs with ratios around 12:1. So we are talking about easy 1-2inch hr rates for 5-6 hrs.

NAM bullseyes the area abt 20 miles NW of Wichita Falls with 11inches in 6 hrs. I'd be chasing that.

EURO also zeroes in on the Wichita Falls area. Looks like the place to be.
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yeah a weather friend messaged me last night and he lives up there so I'm definitely eyeing it... but I wanna see what the models show tonight and tomorrow and that the higher totals are legit(and that this doesn't shift back towards Dallas at the last minute)... but I mean when am I gonna get a setup apparently this good when I'm off work again is the main point here lol
 
GaStorm said:
I would imagine going from extreme +AO to a -AO would open the door for a good arctic outbreak at some point.
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Indeed, the potential turnaround is only going to grow imo. But it won’t happen for at least 2 weeks from all indications. So, we have a torch likely coming up. That’s been assumed for awhile/nothing new. So, it doesn’t phase me in the least. It is sometime AFTER this torch that things are liable to get quite interesting in the SE for awhile. The AAM and even the MJO are sending warning signals for later. Combine that with what appears to be a then plunging AO and analogs with a very mild DJF tells me a lot of folks are likely going to be surprised by early March.
 
GFS says you better get your flurries this week cause the next opportunity wont come until the 19th and even that opportunity is for the mountains.

Time is ticking and we only have one timeout left.
 
Brent said:
yeah a weather friend messaged me last night and he lives up there so I'm definitely eyeing it... but I wanna see what the models show tonight and tomorrow and that the higher totals are legit(and that this doesn't shift back towards Dallas at the last minute)... but I mean when am I gonna get a setup apparently this good when I'm off work again is the main point here lol
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Hey, I need you to come in Wednesday on your off day and work. Can you handle that for me?
 
RollTide18 said:
GFS says you better get your flurries this week cause the next opportunity wont come until the 19th and even that opportunity is for the mountains.

Time is ticking and we only have one timeout left.
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The best opportunities are likely coming well beyond how far the 2 week models can see imo. The next couple of weeks have been largely a throwaway for awhile now. The teles are terrible. Lemonade cannot be made from the lemons then imo. That is old news. Patience will be valued now. If the AAM is really going to go positive, the pattern would then likely change significantly. That’s when the lemonade is liable to be plentiful. (A nod to @KyloG analogy). The GEFS having a significant-AAM bias and still heading toward 0 in 2 weeks is pretty encouraging. Also, the EPS forecast only dips down to -0.6 vs near -1 on earlier forecasts.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Suprised no one is talking about this, this kinda reminds me of the last event that provided some suprise snow, just need a little bit more support but this ain’t that bad View attachment 32934
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Just was texting a friend talking about this one. Looks like it may affect same areas as Friday with more precip to work with. See what the good doc diagnosis is shortly.
 
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