BHS1975
Member
Would be the forth in a row but last year was 3 above normal so not quite a torch.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Would be the forth in a row but last year was 3 above normal so not quite a torch.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
These GFS snow maps are the best lmao
Jessy89
Member
This looks interesting. Doesn’t appear cold enough outside mountains. But look at that high to the north this thing could trend better.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Rates would definitely help out here for sure .. seen the ensembles try to wrap this little system up .. would be interesting but I won’t put any of my chips in .. mostly cause I ran out of them weeks ago
This looks interesting. Doesn’t appear cold enough outside mountains. But look at that high to the north this thing could trend better.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Jessy89
Member
Could be a quick 1-2 inch event for some if it trends better. At least it’s inside 7 days
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
is this an ACTUAL Alberta Clipper? God, I miss those. Usually means transient snow showers and no accumulation, but I'll take it, along with a teen low or two.
This looks interesting. Doesn’t appear cold enough outside mountains. But look at that high to the north this thing could trend better.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
A few changes here and I suppose it could be something
Brent
Member
Sigh I'm just waiting for the GFS to cut the totals now the writing is on the wall
Brent
Member
A foot of snow 2 and a half hours away lol *looks at hotels* 
Last edited:
The CMC did get upgraded ... wouldn’t be surprised if something tried to sneak out at this time period .. we can hope it’s a trend to beSo now gfs/cmc and euro has this second wave also gefs too
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The last 2 Februarys have had +AO/-NPO (which are strongly correlated to -PNA) were followed by El Nino the next winter, that's not a coincidence.
In light of how persistent & strong WWBs have been since late October, a strong West Pac MJO pulse in late Feb/Mar would be a final nail in the coffin imo for potentially setting off an El Nino in 2020-21.
The GEFS is very enthusiastic obviously but the ECMWF tends to completely whiff on MJO events when initialized near the Maritime Continent.
Just glancing at the PNA tables on cpc...that is fascinating looking at past Feb -PNA preceding upcoming nino's. I know nothing is 100% certain but that is stout correlation.
Brent
Member
Really I mean I halfway want to chase and I easily could but I'm kind of over this having to go somewhere to see a real snow I saw this coming but someday I'm gonna live in a place where snow happens every year /end rant
I saw this coming but someday I'm gonna live in a place where snow happens every year /end rant
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Roughly 50-60% of -PNA Februarys (< -0.5 sigma) were followed by El Ninos. Definitely skews the odds in favor of NINO vs climatology which is ~33%, but obviously as you said nothing is set in stone and there are a host of other ways and extraneous variables that can influence next winter's ENSO.
we couldn't possibly suck for a 3rd straight nino could we? What could change to make next winter even worth tuning into if it's a nino?
Fountainguy97
Member
Really I mean I halfway want to chase and I easily could but I'm kind of over this having to go somewhere to see a real snow
View attachment 32920
I would 100% chase this.
NAM DUMPS snow in a short amount of time. .4-.5 qpf falls as snow in just 3 hrs with ratios around 12:1. So we are talking about easy 1-2inch hr rates for 5-6 hrs.
NAM bullseyes the area abt 20 miles NW of Wichita Falls with 11inches in 6 hrs. I'd be chasing that.
EURO also zeroes in on the Wichita Falls area. Looks like the place to be.
Though averaging warmer than normal, recent El Niño winters have actually averaged colder than recent La Niña winters at least based on KATL per an earlier post I made in here.
The bigger problem imo isn’t ENSO. It is how warm it is in and near the Maritime Continent vs surrounding waters. That has apparently been leading to a higher than normal % of days in winter in MJO phases 4 and 5/more SER. This conclusion was reached in a recent paper that was posted in the GW thread. Combine with a warmer globe and that’s what you get.
Last edited: