And yet not a flake of snow has accumulated. ?
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Happy spring...NOT! And this is a an EPS, which has had a good bit less cold bias than the GEFS/GEPS (which are also cold) and almost no cold bias recently. And with the oncoming +AAM (which wouldn't favor a strong SER) as well as consideration of analogs, I wouldn't be surprised if any EPS cold bias is minimal here. Unlike the GEFS/GEPS, it has been rare recently for an EPS to show nationwide cold, especially the inclusion of the SE.
These temps would be near the normal for early to mid Jan! Remember that normal early to mid Jan that we didn't get to experience? Now we may get it!
Let's get ready to rock, hopefully!
These temps would be near the normal for early to mid Jan! Remember that normal early to mid Jan that we didn't get to experience? Now we may get it!
Let's get ready to rock, hopefully!
Yeah. I’m of the opinion next week’s suppressed storm is not our last shot. March 1 is still inside snow climo for most of this board
pcbjr
Member
All ensembles as well as recent GFSs are strong on the idea of a nice Arctic high coming down toward the end of Feb and into early Mar.with no resistance from a SER. Assuming this isn't a mirage this time. many areas could be seeing their coldest of the season to date. And Arctic of that magnitude at that time of winter often has wintry precip associated with it at some point although that part remains to be seen.
By the way, the AO still looks like after another rise to near record levels that it will plunge to near neutral, the NAO looks to drop, the PNA still looks slightly +, and the MJO actually looks pretty sweet. All of this along with the oncoming +AAM and cold analogs means put the bathing suits away.
By the way, the AO still looks like after another rise to near record levels that it will plunge to near neutral, the NAO looks to drop, the PNA still looks slightly +, and the MJO actually looks pretty sweet. All of this along with the oncoming +AAM and cold analogs means put the bathing suits away.
NoSnowATL
Member
I love but you know as well as everyone on here if it doesn’t snow it doesn’t matter. It’s a tough crowd to please. You saw this coming 1st so nice job .
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Cold march...who knew? Now get ready for molten may
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Our weather and climate is so whack now, I wouldn't be surprised to have a winter storm in March. Nothing seems to be "normal" anymore.
Winter storms in March in our area are normal, though.
pcbjr
Member
Yes, we a creeping up on March, with the sure to be touted "sun angle", but dadgum ...
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Btw, the euro showed a beastly look for severe weather at the end of its run, probably to cool tho at the sfc, but man get this H5 look in may and your getting wedges for days
Edit spellcheck has hated me lately
Edit spellcheck has hated me lately
pcbjr
Member
No comment necessary (IMHO) ...
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah that got my attention big today ... gfs has been very consistent 3 days of runs showing a big system cutting through Missouri
Woah @tennessee storm
One of the nastiest H5 pattern I’ve seen in a minute, it’s not often you get CAPE/warm sector pulled up that far north in February
One of the nastiest H5 pattern I’ve seen in a minute, it’s not often you get CAPE/warm sector pulled up that far north in February
Storm5
Member
9.19 inches 
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Looks like the Gfs is maintaining a fairly potent cold pattern for the end of February and into March ... a pattern like it’s showing would have multiple threats for winter weather ... let’s pray this thing is BACKLOADED
Dang, that’s a mean looking ensemble mean, likely gonna be a big storm around this time, that H5 pattern looks nasty for severe weather, Southeast ridging really kinda determines it, but this is something to watch 
pcbjr
Member
Being 10 days out ... might want to buy a $2.00 scratch-off at the Minute Market ...
Sure it’s far out, but Theres major support already for that system on all ensembles means (Gefs/eps/geps) and the euro/gfs/cmc
pcbjr
Member
Analogy ... my rain forecast at 90% 2 days ago ... at 18 hours out ... supported by everything including NWS ... not a drop ... ... when there are trends, and multiple model trends ... then it's time ...
That trough configuration is very nasty.
cd2play
Member
It will probably verify as thunderstorms, severe weather. LOL
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah. Getting time year spring fighting winter
Agree with you on the early March cooler pattern. There going be some colder air pulled down behind that major system towards end month . That system has major severe outbreak written all over it especially for areas in the western southeast . But pattern looks to be and remain fairly progressive ...
ajr
Member
Sure looks transient on the EPS...GOA ridge. It’s same ole same ole fantasy. And like you’ve posted many times, the GEFS has a terrible cold bias
tennessee storm
Member
boy look at the 12zeuro last frame 240, nasty nasty dangerous look, looks to begin for the southern plains... could be the beginning of a pretty buisy week toward end month for a big severe wx event for a rather large area
D
Deleted member 527
Guest
We all should have learned by now anything the models show past 5 days will change. Also Guaranteed they will trend warmer once within those five days. Long range cold which I consider past 5 days will always be not as cold as shown.
The GEFS absolutely has a terrible cold bias that constantly leads to false cold expectations and I normally note that when I post the extended GEFS, but that map I last posted was the EPS (0Z), which has had a lesser cold bias and only minimal cold bias very recently. I'm hoping that the trend toward +AAM will mean even less cold pattern bias for the model consensus since it tends to mean a weaker SER overall and hopefully will mean little to no cold bias in the weeks ahead at least from the EPS. On that note, here is the 12Z EPS for the day I've been focusing on, March 1st: still has nationwide BN, something pretty rarely seen this winter on the EPS until very recently because it often showed the SE stubbornly staying near or AN due to SER:
The H5/sfc map does show the Arctic high bringing the cold into the SE without SER blocking. So, near this period MAY be the next time to look for a potential threat if the Arctic high is strong enough and a GOM low were to form. But it also shows the NE Pacific ridge threatening to reassert itself. Hopefully that would either not occur or be only transitional based on the hopes that the +AAM continues once it returns ~2/20 since that favors a weaker SER in the means, we really do return to and remain in for awhile the more favorable MJO, and the AO really does dives to no more than low amp +AO, and also based on analogs (the ducks are on the pond):
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olhausen
Member
Winter storms in Middle Tennessee are not all that rare. We usually get a decent or even big snow somewhere in northern Tennessee about every 3 years or so. 2018 was the last time we got a decent March snow of about 2 inches. It also snowed 2 times in April that year in less then 10 days apart. The April snow is much more whacky then March snow.
We are very much overdo for a very strong cold plunge in March in the SE. KATL hasn't had lower than 25 in March in 10 years. Prior to this, the longest stretch on record was only 8 years. Also, KATL hasn't had a March teen low for the last 21 years. Prior to this, the longest stretch on record was only 17 years.
KATL has had 20 March's with a lowest in the teens since 1879, or 1 every 7 March's. For 12 of those 20, it was at or within 1 F of the coldest of the entire winter. An impressive 40% of those 20 March's with teen lows had measurable SN or IP (more than a T) vs a mere 10% of the others and 15% of all of them combined. One of these that didn't give KATL measurable gave Jacksonville, FL, a T of sleet very late in the month (1955)!
Regarding cold overall March's (colder than 50), there have been 26 since 1879 or ~1 every 5.5 times. but there has been a mere 1 of these since 1972 (2013)! I don't think this is all from climate change as the 1970s-1980s were pretty cold overall. So, I think a good bit of this is from randomness. Maybe 2020 will be the 2nd such March since 1972 if we can get a good head-start to cold?
KATL has had 20 March's with a lowest in the teens since 1879, or 1 every 7 March's. For 12 of those 20, it was at or within 1 F of the coldest of the entire winter. An impressive 40% of those 20 March's with teen lows had measurable SN or IP (more than a T) vs a mere 10% of the others and 15% of all of them combined. One of these that didn't give KATL measurable gave Jacksonville, FL, a T of sleet very late in the month (1955)!
Regarding cold overall March's (colder than 50), there have been 26 since 1879 or ~1 every 5.5 times. but there has been a mere 1 of these since 1972 (2013)! I don't think this is all from climate change as the 1970s-1980s were pretty cold overall. So, I think a good bit of this is from randomness. Maybe 2020 will be the 2nd such March since 1972 if we can get a good head-start to cold?
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Myyy goooodnessss, is that you April/May ?! 
It's winter weenie time again from the 12Z CFS (they run behind by a cycle): (yes, I know they've been terribly cold biased like the GEFS and I constantly warn about this, but they weren't in advance of the cold in Nov and I have reasons (analog/tele combo) to favor cold during this period):
Oh, and is that a deep GOM Miller A being suggested during this cold period? I know that predicting storms this far out is the most crap shoot of crap shoots. But, at least this helps us dream of the glory that March has brought the SE and is fully capable of doing again:
Oh, and is that a deep GOM Miller A being suggested during this cold period? I know that predicting storms this far out is the most crap shoot of crap shoots. But, at least this helps us dream of the glory that March has brought the SE and is fully capable of doing again:
cd2play
Member
Much of Middle TN had a 2-4 inch snow event in January 2018
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
That would be trouble
cd2play
Member
Hopefully things trend away from that between now and then. This set-up is a DO NOT WANT
tennessee storm
Member
This is going be potentially a fun one to chase ... chomping at the bit
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