Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

[ForsythSnow]

Sure it's at the end of the forecast, but FFC has this in mine


Wednesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday
A 10 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 43.

 

[tennessee storm]

It would have to tap gulf moisture in order to be a event outside the mountains


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Think u meant east of the mountains

 

[Clem282340]

It would have to tap gulf moisture in order to be a event outside the mountains


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If this storm keeps on trending west in time and dig more do you think we have a chance again to see something out of it or is it just only a mountain event

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I agree with birdman here. Looking really good for the spine of the Apps next week. Top to bottom

 

[Storm5]

It would have to tap gulf moisture in order to be a event outside the mountains


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Not necessarily. If it ends up being a clipper type system tenn and NC could do well


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[ryan1234]

If we learned ANYTHING from yesterday's storm, we shouldn't be trying to determine exact locations, amounts, storm track until we get into the 3-5 day range. It never works out the way models indicate this far out. All we have right now is pattern recognition. Anyone from the Midsouth to the Carolina's and GA stands a chance of something.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This past storm proves that we like “suppression“ aswell in the MR, lol

 

[Jessy89]

If this storm keeps on trending west in time and dig more do you think we have a chance again to see something out of it or is it just only a mountain event

Sure if it digs enough west of us and picks up gulf moisture. It would put a lot of people at play. But we see just something to watch not a threat yet


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[GeorgiaGirl]

Picked up 1.74" of rain in the last batch yesterday. This will be used for testing purposes/for fun, but as a reference, here are what some models have up until the next round ends in my area...

12z GFS: 1.21" and 0z GFS: 1.10"
12z Euro: 1.24"
18z NAM: 1.8"
0z HRRR: 1.07"

Kinda striking how close the GFS/Euro is, even though it's close range, but will look at this after the precip is over and see how much I actually got in comparison.

Revisiting this now, my dad said we picked up 1.15". Not sure what the 0z Euro had before time, but for this test purposes, the last GFS on the night before the rain was the closest!

 

[Storm5]

Need the euro further west as well

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[NCSNOW]

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[Clem282340]

Need the euro further west as well

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Is it trending further west from previous euro run

 

[NCSNOW]

850's look good for those euro frames over in N Ga /upstate I posted. 925mb is a degree or 2 to warm

 

[pcbjr]

Hogtown wedge/CAD ... (see that 44º IMBY at 2:00 PM) ...

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Looking ahead I think we are done. I believe back in late January I also did not favor March for anyone outside of the mtns. All chasing will likely be above 3,000ft. Some cold shots sure but looks wet for anyone East of the mtns including here.

 

[weatherfide]

Looking ahead I think we are done. I believe back in late January I also did not favor March for anyone outside of the mtns. All chasing will likely be above 3,000ft. Some cold shots sure but looks wet for anyone East of the mtns including here.

I conquer! We were done back in late December for I-20 folks.

 

[Storm5]

Cool if we are done we will see y’all next winter


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[ATLwxfan]

Cool if we are done we will see y’all next winter


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Yep. Show yourself out. Nobody here can predict the future no matter how hard they bittercast. Would have never thought with the horrible teleconnections and the pac jet that we would get a decent snow in north metro ATL a couple of weeks ago. But we did.


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This will be a western deal here. Once this air pushes eastward we may have another opportunity in the Carolinas. Still chasing unicorns, nonetheless.