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Pattern Dry July 2024

Hope this continues for a week… CLT suburbs
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tractor girl said:
Rained hard east and west and south and north of us. We got maybe 20 minutes of light rain then poof gone. Drought loves drought.
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.14 from that line today. Storms split me so closely the hdr could barely pick up the gap. Incredibly frustrating. That’s the way it’s been the last week. Tuesday it’s literally thundered all around me for hours from noon till about 7.
 
JHS said:
The HRRR is about right for tomorrow. Time to drop pops down to about 20-30% instead of 60-80% tomorrow.
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Both the HRRR and the 3kNAM handled today really well and both are wanting to produce an area of training heavy rainfall late tomorrow evening into the overnight from the upstate to CLT metro
 
Shaggy said:
Only about a 2 to 3 inch difference between the 3knam and the hrrr for today
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It sucks to really attempt to pin down a forecast today. The front is likely to fire off some convection starting around noon through the afternoon but it's going to start to get wavy as the S flow begins pushing against it and it loses all help to get south. A decent shortwave will move NE out of SC and GA after dark so instability is decreasing but forcing is going up. Areas south of the front should be free to fire convection but how long does this stratus hang around and limit overall instability there.

I personally find the shortwave/mcv coming north interesting this evening and overnight. Models aren't super active with it but as it interacts with the old front and starts lifting over it I do wonder if the models are under playing coverage and intensity tonight
 
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SD said:
It sucks to really attempt to pin down a forecast today. The front is likely to fire off some convection starting around noon through the afternoon but it's going to start to get wavy as the S flow begins pushing against it and it loses all help to get south. A decent shortwave will move NE out of SC and GA after dark so instability is decreasing but forcing is going up. Areas south of the front should be free to fire convection but how long does this stratus hang around and limit overall instability there.

I personally find the shortwave/mcv coming north interesting this evening and overnight. Models aren't super active with it but as it interacts with the old front and starts lifting over it I do wonder if the models are under playing coverage and intensity tonight
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Low stratus is cracking down here and we are seeing some sun. Oddly enough almost all my heavier storms have hit either overnight or 1st thing in the mornings over the last week. It's gonna be another day of winners and losers.

On a different note this has been a solid big win of a week. I'm closing in on 6 inches of rainnsonce last Thursday. There was the surprise rain Wednesday morning our forecast highs of 96-98 have not come close to panning out due to residual cloud debris.

Only negative has been an explosion of mosquitos
 
For mby and I’m sure many others the rain has been lackluster from the forecasts the past few days/weeks. I’m not sure I can recall a time where storms have been so sporadic. When a rain shower does pop up locally it is short lived and accumulations aren’t what was forecasted ( I know ,such is life). I would love a good 12 hour slow soaking rain but don’t see that happening in the immediate future.
 
Shetley promised me dry! 🥲4D7B4368-ADDB-4304-B463-166C514D6CF0.pngF8C64A17-7944-495D-B9E3-0D7BBA66F37C.png
 
jeremyt said:
For mby and I’m sure many others the rain has been lackluster from the forecasts the past few days/weeks. I’m not sure I can recall a time where storms have been so sporadic. When a rain shower does pop up locally it is short lived and accumulations aren’t what was forecasted ( I know ,such is life). I would love a good 12 hour slow soaking rain but don’t see that happening in the immediate future.
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It amazing how close we live to each other and just what a difference that few miles makes… I’ve had 2.3” of rain this week bringing my total for the month to 8.32”.
 
Chazwin said:
It amazing how close we live to each other and just what a difference that few miles makes… I’ve had 2.3” of rain this week bringing my total for the month to 8.32”.
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Yeah it’s not even close. I don’t think I’ve reached 1 inch in Marshville . Sorry I guess it was 1.38” on the 8th. I work in Midland and it either rains well there or here. No where near those totals.
 
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Shaggy said:
Low stratus is cracking down here and we are seeing some sun. Oddly enough almost all my heavier storms have hit either overnight or 1st thing in the mornings over the last week. It's gonna be another day of winners and losers.

On a different note this has been a solid big win of a week. I'm closing in on 6 inches of rainnsonce last Thursday. There was the surprise rain Wednesday morning our forecast highs of 96-98 have not come close to panning out due to residual cloud debris.

Only negative has been an explosion of mosquitos
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You are right about this current tropical weather pattern we are in with warm humid weather giving good chances for rain each day for the next several days bringing out the mosquitoes. I just got back from taking the dog I have in my avatar to the veterinarian and got bit for the first time this year. Before that I only recall seeing a couple of mosquitoes this year
 
Same places again. Not a drop and not looking for anything. The HRRR says tonight's heavy rain is gone and it does not look good for tomorrow either. Maybe sometime next week things will change but I'm not expecting it unless it goes back to drier and hotter.
 
JHS said:
Same places again. Not a drop and not looking for anything. The HRRR says tonight's heavy rain is gone and it does not look good for tomorrow either. Maybe sometime next week things will change but I'm not expecting it unless it goes back to drier and hotter.
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Yeah, it’s never gonna rain until November! 🙄🙄🙄8121022A-8F25-4C99-A5BC-C30E8ABA5E5A.png
 
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