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Pattern Dry July 2024

Rain Cold said:
Yep, looks terrible

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I’m sure that if you magnify and strain your eyes to look really close, there will be a dry spot right near Jonesville, SC… undoubtedly that town is gonna be right there with the Mojave and Sahara Deserts as one of the driest places on Earth. It’s amazing when you consider that GSP has at least a 40% chance of thunderstorms through next Saturday there.
 
Where is John Cessarich when you need him?
 
Well, the HRRR says I am right about today. Very little on it anywhere in upstate SC through 7pm today on the 12z run. It nailed it yesterday and will again today. I see the Euro and GFS are wet here, but I have 0 faith in either one. Only the HRRR which has been right now for days.
 
I want to clarify my earlier posts in the thread about lack of rain for MBY as not to be confused. My frustration is the lower to no values in regards to the NWS forecasts. I’m not trying to come across as bashing as they are way more versed than I am but the totals that have been forecasted compared to what’s been received are well below. That said this summer pattern is so dependent on chance in my opinion. It’s really frustrating to see Anson county or Cabarrus county get a good soaking while my poor yard is brown except for the weeds which seem to make their own water grow mightily. Today , tonight and tomorrow could set up good for Ol Marshville but I’m not willing to hedge any bets on it. I’m tired, and need some sleep. Sorry for the rambling!
 
JHS said:
Well, the HRRR says I am right about today. Very little on it anywhere in upstate SC through 7pm today on the 12z run. It nailed it yesterday and will again today. I see the Euro and GFS are wet here, but I have 0 faith in either one. Only the HRRR which has been right now for days.
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Meanwhile I just got another 30 minute pour down.
 
jeremyt said:
I want to clarify my earlier posts in the thread about lack of rain for MBY as not to be confused. My frustration is the lower to no values in regards to the NWS forecasts. I’m not trying to come across as bashing as they are way more versed than I am but the totals that have been forecasted compared to what’s been received are well below. That said this summer pattern is so dependent on chance in my opinion. It’s really frustrating to see Anson county or Cabarrus county get a good soaking while my poor yard is brown except for the weeds which seem to make their own water grow mightily. Today , tonight and tomorrow could set up good for Ol Marshville but I’m not willing to hedge any bets on it. I’m tired, and need some sleep. Sorry for the rambling!
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Have you not even done well the last 2 days… my mother in law lives in Marshville right near downtown and she’s had over 2 inches since Friday afternoon
 
Chazwin said:
Have you not even done well the last 2 days… my mother in law lives in Marshville right near downtown and she’s had over 2 inches since Friday afternoon
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I can’t speak for the past 36 hours honestly as I was working on the ambulance in Anson. It rained .59 per my rain gauge Friday night. Didn’t rain much in Wadesboro last night though.
 
Well, it looks like most of us stay dry today and most likely tomorrow too. All of the models except for the HRRR are flat out wrong. Totally wrong.
 
JHS said:
Well, it looks like most of us stay dry today and most likely tomorrow too. All of the models except for the HRRR are flat out wrong. Totally wrong.
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See I had a good hour and a half or maybe two hours of solid rain. Probably pretty close to the same as two Sundays ago and rain probably 4 out of the last 5 days. A good stretch for someone who's usually on the wrong side of these patterns. Just a few miles is the difference between drought and flooding this time of year. That's just one of my many reasons for hating summer. The relentless heat being the main reason. Although I'm starting to hate winter as much as summer anymore because it just seem so hopeless when I comes to even coming close to getting just average snowfall
 
GSP backing off on pops now, We are going to end up only getting a trace of rain out of this so called wet period. Hopefully the tropics wake up soon so we can finally get rain again, maybe.
 
JHS said:
GSP backing off on pops now, We are going to end up only getting a trace of rain out of this so called wet period. Hopefully the tropics wake up soon so we can finally get rain again, maybe.
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Probably not.

1.26 here last night. Going to have to start mowing every other day.
 
Rain Cold said:
What a pattern. All models and ensembles generally look the same.

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Shetley quietly withdraws to the darkest corner of his grandmas basement! 😷
Has dried quite a bit up here, but looks to go back to the ‘ ring of fire ‘ pattern by next week! Had this cloud around yesterday 8B8695B3-48D2-4826-AA0D-71ECD832F73F.jpeg
 
SD said:
I wouldn't be surprised if we had another big batch around here later this afternoon into the evening
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Based on the latest satellite image you may very well be in a good spot, being on the warm side of what looks to become a decent differential heating boundary. That boundary will be the focus for much of the storm coverage this afternoon, I think.
 
SD said:
I wouldn't be surprised if we had another big batch around here later this afternoon into the evening
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MHX put a flood watch on us...calling for a slow moving training line of storms right over the central coastal plains...
 
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