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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th

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Webberweather53 said:
I'm starting to have thoughts that this should not have been upgraded to a MDT, the performance of these cells thus far is pretty lackluster to say the least in comparison to what could have happened and they've grown upscale into a linear mess in a hurry
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Yeah, SPC seems to have picked up the habit of being overboard in recent times, and I think this time we can owe it to the HRRR and other SR models not picking up on that development in Central AL earlier.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm starting to have thoughts that this should not have been upgraded to a MDT, the performance of these cells thus far is pretty lackluster to say the least in comparison to what could have happened and they've grown upscale into a linear mess in a hurry
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I'm agreeing with you. I don't want to keep harping on this but that dry slug at 850mb over central AL is impressive. Bust potential growing quickly for BHM and southward in a hurry.
 
Looks like the chance of this causing discrete supercells seems very low at this point. It all just formed and melted together. However, I think that may cause the system to turn into a damaging wind threat in the form of a line. It's either that or a line with several kinks and tornadoes embedded.
 
At 535 PM CDT, a potential large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Russellville, moving east at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
 
Glenn Burns is hyping this event. He just said this: The potential for devastating storms is so great tonight, even the Hurricane Hunters have been deployed!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Glenn Burns is hyping this event. He just said this: The potential for devastating storms is so great tonight, even the Hurricane Hunters have been deployed!
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I think he's a severe lover at heart because he loves being paid overtime for extended coverage. He'll hype up a windstorm if it means some extra pocket money.
 
Phillip l said:
Glen burns now talking about long track tornados in the northern ga area.
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Someone needs to throw a hammer into the camera lens to shut him up so he can go look at what is really happening. On the other hand, the line is strong and has a tornado on the ground, so can't write this off. Also, I don't know if we can call this a bust yet since it's just entered the moderate risk area. Have to give it an hour I'd say. Looks like the supercell cluster is moving SE too.
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...Northern AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

Valid 192206Z - 200000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat will be focused along warm front
in northern AL through about 00z. Significant tornadoes will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Supercells are intensifying along a surface trough
across northeast MS, and these storms will spread across northern AL
through the late afternoon/evening. The southwest-northeast
orientation of the initiating surface trough has supported some
storm interactions. However, even with a supercell cluster mode,
the ongoing storms will move into a more favorable environment for
tornadoes with time in AL. Low-level shear will be strongest near
and north of the warm front, which also denotes the northeast edge
of the most unstable portions of the warm sector (MLCAPE at or above
2000 J/kg). This corridor along the warm front will provide the
most favorable environment for significant tornadoes for the next
few hours as the supercells mature and begin to move
east-southeastward along the boundary.
 
Yeouch, the latest HRRR doesn't have anyone south of BHM even getting rain except for spotty showers in Far East AL. Pretty much the two main cells and maybe another is all that forms and the tracks into GA.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
For now going to respectively disagree even HRRR amps this up around I-65 the E. Small area but violent long track TOR's possible. Confined area yes but good grief
View attachment 4620 View attachment 4621 View attachment 4622 View attachment 4623
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HRRR also showed there being discrete cells already and that didn't happen (the resolution of the model is likely still too coarse to resolve storm mode). Good luck with that if your cells cold pools are constantly interfering with one another, it's going to be a tall order to get these cells to split into discrete sups during the late evening and early overnight unless some dramatic changes take hold in the next hour or so
 
Arcc said:
Yeouch, the latest HRRR doesn't have anyone south of BHM even getting rain except for spotty showers in Far East AL. Pretty much the two main cells and maybe another is all that forms and the tracks into GA.
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Guess is depends on how you feel and location, I-65 East and North of I-20 definitely got to be aware
 
Arcc said:
Yeouch, the latest HRRR doesn't have anyone south of BHM even getting rain except for spotty showers in Far East AL. Pretty much the two main cells and maybe another is all that forms and the tracks into GA.
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So far the HRRR is doing horrible. I'm still going to look at it, but it seems to be suggesting the main line will have no trouble developing and causing issues, while in reality, its a mess and it's not developing. I've already thrown the NAM in the trash.
 
ForsythSnow said:
So far the HRRR is doing horrible. I'm still going to look at it, but it seems to be suggesting the main line will have no trouble developing and causing issues, while in reality, its a mess and it's not developing. I've already thrown the NAM in the trash.
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While it's having trouble with the storms itself, it's nailing the dry slug of air that is killing off everything south of it. Probably take a happy medium and use it for storm location only.
 
I hate to butt in here but, any changes to the current thinking when it comes to central ga? In between Atlanta and Macon.
 
22z HRRR that is rolling now, is even drier. If it is correct then bust city. I am hoping it’s wrong because I’d like to see some storms, but we will see.
 
Webberweather53 said:
HRRR also showed there being discrete cells already and that didn't happen (the resolution of the model is likely still too coarse to resolve storm mode). Good luck with that if your cells cold pools are constantly interfering with one another, it's going to be a tall order to get these cells to split into discrete sups during the late evening and early overnight unless some dramatic changes take hold in the next hour or so
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Ok since you have it all figured out in advance and current tornadoes guess not a big deal if your under one I guess it's tough chit "you got lucky" having one ruin your day.

Guess everything has to be massive in scale to really count these days in the world of weather.

Good luck to those affected stay safe I'm out and...

... Carry on
 
New cluster of cells popping north of LaGrange, Ga heading NE toward south metro ATL. Will be interesting to see what they do in the next hour.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
Ok since you have it all figured out in advance and current tornadoes guess not a big deal if your under one I guess it's tough chit "you got lucky" having one ruin your day.

Guess everything has to be massive in scale to really count these days in the world of weather.

Good luck to those affected stay safe I'm out and...

... Carry on
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There's no reason to get upset over this, I'm just saying there are stringent statistical definitions the SPC has to fulfill to satisfy the MDT risk criterion and we are less likely to fill them w/ this linear mess. It's not determined willy-nilly or that one tornado automatically means we just slap a MDT or HIGH risk on there, we need several long-track tornadoes in this MDT risk area to satisfy their definitions and that's looking less likely but still possible because the supercells have merged.
 
BPATL said:
Exactly, I am not going to call out anyone, but really who wants death and destruction?
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Good lord, yeah I said I wanted death and destruction. This happens every dang time when someone gets excited about severe weather. Do you think storm chasers want death and destruction? Of course they don’t. They are just fascinated with weather and enjoy it, and are looking at ways to help people even more. Just because I enjoy following severe weather does not mean I want people to die. Get a grip!

If you actually watch the weather and have a good source of weather information and go to your safe place, then most likely you will be fine. Most of the time it’s the people that don’t care or listen to the warnings at all that end up getting hurt.
 
Parker said:
Good lord, yeah I said I wanted death and destruction. This happens every dang time when someone gets excited about severe weather. Do you think storm chasers want death and destruction? Of course they don’t. They are just fascinated with weather and enjoy it, and are looking at ways to help people even more. Just because I enjoy following severe weather does not mean I want people to die. Get a grip!
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No, no, no, Man,,,I said I did not call out names, but you just did. But if it hits where you live, your life will be changed forever.
 
Saying or even implying that somebody enjoys death and destruction only because they like severe weather and tornadoes is like saying someone who enjoys studying psychology and understanding mentally ill patients enjoys being mentally ill themselves or that an individual who enjoys cold and snow automatically loves having fallen trees due to weight of the snow fall on their homes, businesses, and have their power knocked out for several days after. The two are mutually exclusive.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Saying or even implying that somebody enjoys death and destruction only because they like severe weather and tornadoes is like saying someone who enjoys studying psychology and understanding mentally ill patients enjoys being mentally ill themselves or that an individual who enjoys cold and snow automatically loves having fallen trees due to weight of the snow fall on their homes, businesses, and have their power knocked out for several days after. The two are mutually exclusive.
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Like ... but some seem to revel in the fact w/o thinking of the consequences; it's a balancing act ... IMHO
and if you disagree, I'll gladly shut up ... :confused:
 
I'm trying to understand why everyone is calling a bust already when this was always a late afternoon/evening/night time event. For example, my area was forecast to receive the worst around 9 or 10 pm. I have first hand witnessed a late night tornado. I get that instability lowers after sunset when you lose the heat, etc. I mean I hope it doesn't get bad, but I'm not throwing in the towel or letting my guard down yet because they latest models still show that it could get bad later on.
 
The cell south of Huntsville is trying desperately to separate from its counterpart further to the west. If it happens to be successful, things can get more interesting as it enters the region of backed surface winds further east. The linear mess early on certainly hurt the chances in the western part of the MDT and will limit the potential numbers in the end but this the kind of dramatic change that needs to happen wrt storm structure to see more widespread violent tornadoes and verify the MDT.
 
Lynsy said:
I'm trying to understand why everyone is calling a bust already when this was always a late afternoon/evening/night time event. For example, my area was forecast to receive the worst around 9 or 10 pm. I have first hand witnessed a late night tornado. I get that instability lowers after sunset when you lose the heat, etc. I mean I hope it doesn't get bad, but I'm not throwing in the towel or letting my guard down yet because they latest models still show that it could get bad later on.
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I agree, I’m not supposed to see anything until around 2 am. I’m sure that some of the people commenting are seeing that it isn’t developing quite like it was supposed to but, I don’t see that the risk is gone.
 
BPATL said:
No, no, no, Man,,,I said I did not call out names, but you just did. But if it hits where you live, your life will be changed forever.
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Look, my dad and I own a business that helps people after disasters like this and we have had it for over 30 years. I see damage like this first hand after any event that causes roof damage or water damage from storms. My grandparents house was affected the morning of April 27, 2011 and my 11th grade english teachers mother was killed in Pleasant Grove. Literally found her in a ditch several hundred yards from her house. I don't need someone to tell me that if it hits me it will change my life. I have so many friends that always ask me what the weather is going to do, and I try to help them out and tell them how serious it is to have reliable sources of weather information. Ive been fascinated with tornadoes since I was 4 years old and always wanted to chase them and see them in person. And you most certainly implied that I wanted death and destruction when you replied to that message that told me to enjoy my bust. My rant is over, and I am sure this will be moved to banter.
 
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