Cmon SPC, what’s the holdup?
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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th
- Thread starter Xtreme Weather
- Start date
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- Tags
- hail severe weather tornado
- Status
Wxwamm
Member
Waiting until the top of the hour I figure..
SPC is probably on spring break.
Phillip l
Member
There is a group on facebook, very good info. I’m sure they will be extremely active today.
You’d be surprised! No one around here knows anything!
As far as this threat, looking menacing from the SPC. I’m now in the enhanced area with a hatched area for tornados, yikes! I’m just hoping and praying that it doesn’t come overnight but it’s looking like it will.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a very crude analysis of where the warm front, prefrontal trough, and dry line are currently located across Dixie and the lower MS Valley. The storm near and just north of Birmingham likely fired at a triple point where the warm front merged w/ this cold front aloft or prefrontal trough extending from north-central AL down to the Gulf coast. The primary forcing associated with the dry line (in orange) is still way back over northern MS and will take a few more hours to reach northern AL. Those in central GA need to keep a close eye on the location of the warm front (in red) and this prefrontal trough (in black) because this could be a focal point for isolated supercells outside the MDT risk area in northern Alabama as we're currently seeing near Birmingham.
Probably the BMX sounding that showed weak low level shear for the time being.
It will come when it's needed.
RobertRath
Member
Just north of Birmingham in Walker county. Getting cool easterly winds at the surface. Is there any significance to this?
Probably not in the end.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
How long will it take for the warm front to move into N GA web?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The warm front likely won't pass through Atlanta until later this evening, by then the main concern may be damaging winds in association w/ the MCS that will evolve from the large-scale merging of the supercell's cold pools. The passage of the warm front in conjunction w/ this prefrontal trough is more of a concern for areas like Macon to kick off an isolated supercell or two. Thankfully, the storm relative helicity won't be as favorable here as it is in northern Alabama closer to the surface low but hail, strong winds, and perhaps a tornado can't be entirely ruled out with the supercell or two that develops south of Atlanta (if any)
proud dad
Member
Webber, how long do you think it will be until the warm front moves into the Carrollton, GA area ?
W
WeatherLC
Guest
He just answered that.
No he didnt. He said when the warm front would move through Atlanta and N GA.
Bright sunny and 77 degrees Shelby County Airport Shelby County Alabama
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Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
Tornado watch going to be issue soon.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The warm front is knocking on your doorstep, looks like the low level stratus deck has cleared the next county immediately to your south so it won't be long in all likelihood.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here we go, convective initiation is occurring just SE of Memphis along the dry line in northern MS, this should the focal point of the supercells that will enter northern AL and far NE MS later this evening. Buckle up.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The clouds are still a long ways from being over up here. I've seen almost clear on Sat imagery only for the sky to still be full of thick clouds. Now Alabama is a different story.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The clouds are still a long ways from being over up here. I've seen almost clear on Sat imagery only for the sky to still be full of thick clouds. Now Alabama is a different story.
There's some stratus and leftover fractured cumulus from yesterday's convection and storms firing in Alabama that are shrouding the location of the low-level thick stratus that's over top the warm front but it looks to be making some progress into western GA. The smattering gravity waves just southwest of Atlanta and north of Columbus, GA are indicative of the nose of the warm front mixing stable air immediately along and out in front of it which creates gravity waves, leads to forward propagation of the warm front and progressively destabilizes the atmosphere, and I wouldn't be shocked if a few isolated spots are seeing some kelvin-helmholtz instability given the strong low-mid level and deep layer shear.
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