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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th

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Looks like we'll dodge a bullet here in the immediate Atlanta area. While the warm front will put up an admirable fight, it doesn't look like there will be much daylight left by the time it finally clears the city. I'm at 60/58 & have been stuck there most of the day with an ENE Wind.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Here we go. Looks like classic supercells forming in MS right now. I expect tornado warnings in the next 20 minutes on at least one.
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Was just about to say..really getting their acts together quickly. Right on cue, storm just East of New Albany Tor warned
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Looks like we'll dodge a bullet here in the immediate Atlanta area. While the warm front will put up an admirable fight, it doesn't look like there will be much daylight left by the time it finally clears the city. I'm at 60/58 & have been stuck there most of the day with an ENE Wind.
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Definitely would not let my guard down yet, It really has not even started
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Looks like we'll dodge a bullet here in the immediate Atlanta area. While the warm front will put up an admirable fight, it doesn't look like there will be much daylight left by the time it finally clears the city. I'm at 60/58 & have been stuck there most of the day with an ENE Wind.
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Dodged a bullet? Don't see how since this was never a big afternoon threat. They mentioned the timeline which was always later tonight.
 
GaStorm said:
Dodged a bullet? Don't see how since this was never a big afternoon threat. They mentioned the timeline which was always later tonight.
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My post was more of an observation that illustrates how the wedge hanging on through the peak of the daytime heating will likely reduce the impact for Atlanta. I certainly could be wrong.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
My post was more of an observation that illustrates how the wedge hanging on through the peak of the daytime heating will likely reduce the impact for Atlanta. I certainly could be wrong.
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Well I'm also not rooting for late night severe either. It's the worst time when people are in bed.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Looks like we'll dodge a bullet here in the immediate Atlanta area. While the warm front will put up an admirable fight, it doesn't look like there will be much daylight left by the time it finally clears the city. I'm at 60/58 & have been stuck there most of the day with an ENE Wind.
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Not necessarily. Daylight is only part of what can make a system. Remember the 2008 Atlanta tornado hit at 9 PM. The main focus is the warm front, and once it's passed, whoever is south of it when the line comes in is at risk.
 
Another sneaky prefrontal trough (in black) has become evident along the I-65 corridor between Huntsville and Birmingham, this could be yet another focal point for new supercell development downstream in northeastern AL and northwestern GA later this evening. Supercells have begun firing along the dry line (in orange) over north-central MS and will begin to move into Alabama over the coming hours.
Screen Shot 2018-03-19 at 5.12.51 PM.png

A few cells have already tried to fire along and just ahead of this feature, should be interesting to see how they evolve going forward.
 
These supercells over northern MS are just way too close together at the moment, they need to separate from one another and become more discrete or else this will evolve into a linear mess w/ embedded tors like what will almost inevitably happen later tonight in GA & SC.
 
Not sure it would mean anything here later on, but it is at least 5 degrees warmer today than the forecasted high.
 
I'm on south side of Carrollton Ga. In moderate rain now. Blue sky to north. Rainbow out with sun. Worst of storm passing just to south.
 
There’s a fairly noteworthy kink in the dryline near the southernmost supercells in northern MS, this will likely localize low level convergence and further aid in their eventual development down the road
 
5A7695C7-496E-49A4-9CE3-594F1D9E0A2F.png

Latest sounding from Birmingham shows (in blue near the bottom) the deep layer shear vector is almost perpendicular to the squall line orientation atm which isn’t ideal for supercells and favors left splits. Would like to see this shear orientation closer to 45 degrees but I’ve seen worse.
 
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