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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th

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I think it was the NAM late last night that showed the boundary layer decoupling. Under clear sky I'm really starting to think it may happen.
 
Lets keep the "death and destruction" debate in the banter thread. Everyone seems to have an opinion, maybe even make a new thread where everyone can discuss about it since it seems to pop up during any potential severe weather.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Does James Spann always cover weather in other TV markets ? He's discussing storms in North AL even though they are in the Huntsville market I believe.
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Occasionally it happens (I remember they were streaming coverage of the Christmas Day 2012 tornado in Mobile,) but the current storm is affecting Cullman County, which is part of the Birmingham TV market (despite being in the Huntsville CWA).
 
theskbl17 said:
Occasionally it happens (I remember they were streaming coverage of the Christmas Day 2012 tornado in Mobile,) but the current storm is affecting Cullman County, which is part of the Birmingham TV market (despite being in the Huntsville CWA).
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That is so confusing. Cullman should not be in the Huntsville CWA and Birmingham TV market.
 
The sim radar that I saw a few minutes ago, lights up the Upstate of S.C. between midnight and 3 am!! I mean not tornados or even severe, but pouring rain and solid storms. Looking forward to it!
 
Lynsy said:
I'm trying to understand why everyone is calling a bust already when this was always a late afternoon/evening/night time event. For example, my area was forecast to receive the worst around 9 or 10 pm. I have first hand witnessed a late night tornado. I get that instability lowers after sunset when you lose the heat, etc. I mean I hope it doesn't get bad, but I'm not throwing in the towel or letting my guard down yet because they latest models still show that it could get bad later on.
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Seems to always be a bad habit to prematurely call any significant weather a bust while it's currently happening, severe weather or otherwise. It gets annoying at times to read. HRRR has the worst of the storms coming here around midnight - 1am which sucks because if it is bad with the hail, damaging winds, lightning/thunder, etc. I'm definitely not getting much sleep tonight. *sigh*
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...North central and northeast AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

Valid 192359Z - 200130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

SUMMARY...Cluster of supercells will continue to pose a threat for
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds for the next few hours
along the warm front in north central and northeast AL.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of supercells continues to move
east-southeastward across north central AL this evening. Thus far,
the more intense storms have tended to be the lead cells in the
cluster, though interactions with upstream convection have
interfered with more classic supercell structures. Recent discrete
development south of the cluster will lead to additional cell
mergers and a continued messy convective mode. Still, the
storm-scale environment is favorable for tornadic supercells along
the surface warm front in AL, which represents the southern edge of
the stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature and the northern
edge of the more unstable warm sector.
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The southern storm has a classic three body scatter strike (TBSS) signature on radar indicative of very large hail, wouldn't be shocked if there's hail aloft or reaching the ground near Cullman the size of baseballs
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is going to probably be a long night for those near and just north of the Atlanta metro as this evolves upscale into a QLCS
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Does it survive making it through the wedge into W SC, or will it be weakening? I don’t think wedge is as strong as forecasted!?
 
Hopefully this is inaccurate.

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http://app.box.com/s/968u11i6d9p0cogw0p7f1q08gikjearm
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is going to probably be a long night for those near and just north of the Atlanta metro as this evolves upscale into a QLCS
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Was just thinking the same. The “flat” (forigve my layman’s term) orientation of the line will take forever to move through. This is starting to remind me of the ‘98 tornado that went through the north perimeter ATL area. It was also part of a QLCS band and took hours to move through. Went right over my house but thankfully was off the ground when it did.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Can you give an idea as to what a QCLS is and what to expect? Sounds bad.
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Basically a bad derecho!? A line with some spin ups embedded, and probably severe winds
 
ForsythSnow said:
Can you give an idea as to what a QCLS is and what to expect? Sounds bad.
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A Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) is an overarching term that can refer to almost any line or small-medium sized cluster of thunderstorms that tend to occur in moderate-highly sheared environments whose primary threats often entail damaging winds and isolated tornadoes associated with bowing segments. QLCSs can often grow upscale into mesoscale convective systems whose forward motion and evolution are driven by the background flow and the cold pools associated with the thunderstorms. If QLCSs last long enough to generate enough latent heating and a rear inflow jet that allows part of their structure to effectively bow outwards and cover a large distance they also may spawn line end vortices that grow upscale into mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) that may serve to spawn more convection downstream and as the QLCS matures and grows it may have a significant and easily measurable impact on the synoptic-scale flow regime and large-scale pattern to an extent.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Saying or even implying that somebody enjoys death and destruction only because they like severe weather and tornadoes is like saying someone who enjoys studying psychology and understanding mentally ill patients enjoys being mentally ill themselves or that an individual who enjoys cold and snow automatically loves having fallen trees due to weight of the snow fall on their homes, businesses, and have their power knocked out for several days after. The two are mutually exclusive.
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post of the day.... as a chaser... hoping for a buisy spring.... hope everyone stays alert and safe
 
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