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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th

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Looks like we'll dodge a bullet here in the immediate Atlanta area. While the warm front will put up an admirable fight, it doesn't look like there will be much daylight left by the time it finally clears the city. I'm at 60/58 & have been stuck there most of the day with an ENE Wind.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Here we go. Looks like classic supercells forming in MS right now. I expect tornado warnings in the next 20 minutes on at least one.
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Was just about to say..really getting their acts together quickly. Right on cue, storm just East of New Albany Tor warned
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Looks like we'll dodge a bullet here in the immediate Atlanta area. While the warm front will put up an admirable fight, it doesn't look like there will be much daylight left by the time it finally clears the city. I'm at 60/58 & have been stuck there most of the day with an ENE Wind.
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Definitely would not let my guard down yet, It really has not even started
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Looks like we'll dodge a bullet here in the immediate Atlanta area. While the warm front will put up an admirable fight, it doesn't look like there will be much daylight left by the time it finally clears the city. I'm at 60/58 & have been stuck there most of the day with an ENE Wind.
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Dodged a bullet? Don't see how since this was never a big afternoon threat. They mentioned the timeline which was always later tonight.
 
GaStorm said:
Dodged a bullet? Don't see how since this was never a big afternoon threat. They mentioned the timeline which was always later tonight.
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My post was more of an observation that illustrates how the wedge hanging on through the peak of the daytime heating will likely reduce the impact for Atlanta. I certainly could be wrong.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
My post was more of an observation that illustrates how the wedge hanging on through the peak of the daytime heating will likely reduce the impact for Atlanta. I certainly could be wrong.
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Well I'm also not rooting for late night severe either. It's the worst time when people are in bed.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Looks like we'll dodge a bullet here in the immediate Atlanta area. While the warm front will put up an admirable fight, it doesn't look like there will be much daylight left by the time it finally clears the city. I'm at 60/58 & have been stuck there most of the day with an ENE Wind.
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Not necessarily. Daylight is only part of what can make a system. Remember the 2008 Atlanta tornado hit at 9 PM. The main focus is the warm front, and once it's passed, whoever is south of it when the line comes in is at risk.
 
Another sneaky prefrontal trough (in black) has become evident along the I-65 corridor between Huntsville and Birmingham, this could be yet another focal point for new supercell development downstream in northeastern AL and northwestern GA later this evening. Supercells have begun firing along the dry line (in orange) over north-central MS and will begin to move into Alabama over the coming hours.
Screen Shot 2018-03-19 at 5.12.51 PM.png

A few cells have already tried to fire along and just ahead of this feature, should be interesting to see how they evolve going forward.
 
These supercells over northern MS are just way too close together at the moment, they need to separate from one another and become more discrete or else this will evolve into a linear mess w/ embedded tors like what will almost inevitably happen later tonight in GA & SC.
 
Not sure it would mean anything here later on, but it is at least 5 degrees warmer today than the forecasted high.
 
I'm on south side of Carrollton Ga. In moderate rain now. Blue sky to north. Rainbow out with sun. Worst of storm passing just to south.
 
There’s a fairly noteworthy kink in the dryline near the southernmost supercells in northern MS, this will likely localize low level convergence and further aid in their eventual development down the road
 
Webberweather53 said:
View attachment 4612
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To use your graphic Webb.

Noticing dewpoints dropping in southern MS. We need this to continue to advect in or we (especially the northern parts) are in for a long night. Not that low 60's DPs are good and will stop all the severe weather, but it's better than near 70.
 
5A7695C7-496E-49A4-9CE3-594F1D9E0A2F.png

Latest sounding from Birmingham shows (in blue near the bottom) the deep layer shear vector is almost perpendicular to the squall line orientation atm which isn’t ideal for supercells and favors left splits. Would like to see this shear orientation closer to 45 degrees but I’ve seen worse.
 
HRRR does not look anything like the NAM in regards to how far to the SW storms will be an issue.

Latest HRRR does not even have any storms in Jefferson, shelby, or Tuscaloosa. Will be interesting to see who wins that battle
 
Parker said:
HRRR does not look anything like the NAM in regards to how far to the SW storms will be an issue.

Latest HRRR does not even have any storms in Jefferson, shelby, or Tuscaloosa. Will be interesting to see who wins that battle
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The NAM looks scarier for N GA and E AL to me, as well as areas south. The supercells become discrete per the latest run which would probably create long track supercells with the possibility of rotation.
 
What's interesting here is as each supercell matures and moves to the right of the mean wind in northern MS and AL this causes the dry line where they're located to advance more quickly than further to south, forcing it to become orientated more perpendicular to the low-level flow to their SW which enhances convergence further to the south, etc allowing new storms to form and eat up the old ones to their NE. We'll have to see if this trend comes to a halt soon.
 
From SPC

5:06 PM

DISCUSSION...Supercells are intensifying along a surface trough
across northeast MS, and these storms will spread across northern AL
through the late afternoon/evening. The southwest-northeast
orientation of the initiating surface trough has supported some
storm interactions. However, even with a supercell cluster mode,
the ongoing storms will move into a more favorable environment for
tornadoes with time in AL. Low-level shear will be strongest near
and north of the warm front, which also denotes the northeast edge
of the most unstable portions of the warm sector (MLCAPE at or above
2000 J/kg). This corridor along the warm front will provide the
most favorable environment for significant tornadoes for the next
few hours as the supercells mature and begin to move
east-southeastward along the boundary.
 
New 3KM NAM is not nearly as ominous as some other modeling for the Central Midlands area. In fact, the squall line is almost non existent on simulated radar.

Haven't looked at a lot of data, but the little bit I have seen, I have noticed that SBCape levels are too low, and MUcape as a whole isn't too great through this area for much outside some winds and some heavier rains if the squall line can hold together.
 
On the other hand, the newest HRRR I have has quite a squall line with some potential supercells embedded swinging through the Midlands. Splitting the difference, I agree with SPC's slight risk through the area currently.
 
This quickly evolving into a linear mess which is some good news for northern AL and the Huntsville area, the bad news is the tornadoes that do develop will be rain-wrapped and may be occur w/ little warning.
 
Parker said:
HRRR does not look anything like the NAM in regards to how far to the SW storms will be an issue.

Latest HRRR does not even have any storms in Jefferson, shelby, or Tuscaloosa. Will be interesting to see who wins that battle
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HRRR keeps the slug of dry air over central AL and more or less capped until the dry line. Definitely will be interesting to watch.
 
WSB is showing things relatively quiet until about 10. They’re leaning toward a fairly substantial line entering ga around 10, Atlanta around midnight, and my area about 2am, crap.
 
I'm starting to have thoughts that this should not have been upgraded to a MDT, the performance of these cells thus far is pretty lackluster to say the least in comparison to what could have happened and they've grown upscale into a linear mess in a hurry
 
Off topic, sort of, but isn't weather such a fascinating and cool thing to monitor and study?!? Thanks to all of you who are providing valid analysis. Watching this evolution, while maybe frightening and dangerous, is cool nonetheless when considering the power of nature.
 
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