Cell entering AL looks like it wants to get out front
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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th
- Thread starter Xtreme Weather
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- hail severe weather tornado
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Would like to see less rain in the RFD of this supercell entering N AL to get tornadogenesis but we can work this
Xtreme Weather
Member
Latest from BMX launch still a powder keg and shear has increased
Parker
Member
HRRR does not look anything like the NAM in regards to how far to the SW storms will be an issue.
Latest HRRR does not even have any storms in Jefferson, shelby, or Tuscaloosa. Will be interesting to see who wins that battle
Latest HRRR does not even have any storms in Jefferson, shelby, or Tuscaloosa. Will be interesting to see who wins that battle
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The NAM looks scarier for N GA and E AL to me, as well as areas south. The supercells become discrete per the latest run which would probably create long track supercells with the possibility of rotation.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What's interesting here is as each supercell matures and moves to the right of the mean wind in northern MS and AL this causes the dry line where they're located to advance more quickly than further to south, forcing it to become orientated more perpendicular to the low-level flow to their SW which enhances convergence further to the south, etc allowing new storms to form and eat up the old ones to their NE. We'll have to see if this trend comes to a halt soon.
Xtreme Weather
Member
From SPC
5:06 PM
DISCUSSION...Supercells are intensifying along a surface trough
across northeast MS, and these storms will spread across northern AL
through the late afternoon/evening. The southwest-northeast
orientation of the initiating surface trough has supported some
storm interactions. However, even with a supercell cluster mode,
the ongoing storms will move into a more favorable environment for
tornadoes with time in AL. Low-level shear will be strongest near
and north of the warm front, which also denotes the northeast edge
of the most unstable portions of the warm sector (MLCAPE at or above
2000 J/kg). This corridor along the warm front will provide the
most favorable environment for significant tornadoes for the next
few hours as the supercells mature and begin to move
east-southeastward along the boundary.
5:06 PM
DISCUSSION...Supercells are intensifying along a surface trough
across northeast MS, and these storms will spread across northern AL
through the late afternoon/evening. The southwest-northeast
orientation of the initiating surface trough has supported some
storm interactions. However, even with a supercell cluster mode,
the ongoing storms will move into a more favorable environment for
tornadoes with time in AL. Low-level shear will be strongest near
and north of the warm front, which also denotes the northeast edge
of the most unstable portions of the warm sector (MLCAPE at or above
2000 J/kg). This corridor along the warm front will provide the
most favorable environment for significant tornadoes for the next
few hours as the supercells mature and begin to move
east-southeastward along the boundary.
New 3KM NAM is not nearly as ominous as some other modeling for the Central Midlands area. In fact, the squall line is almost non existent on simulated radar.
Haven't looked at a lot of data, but the little bit I have seen, I have noticed that SBCape levels are too low, and MUcape as a whole isn't too great through this area for much outside some winds and some heavier rains if the squall line can hold together.
Haven't looked at a lot of data, but the little bit I have seen, I have noticed that SBCape levels are too low, and MUcape as a whole isn't too great through this area for much outside some winds and some heavier rains if the squall line can hold together.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Tor confirmed on the ground newer Red Bay, AL
On the other hand, the newest HRRR I have has quite a squall line with some potential supercells embedded swinging through the Midlands. Splitting the difference, I agree with SPC's slight risk through the area currently.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This quickly evolving into a linear mess which is some good news for northern AL and the Huntsville area, the bad news is the tornadoes that do develop will be rain-wrapped and may be occur w/ little warning.
HRRR keeps the slug of dry air over central AL and more or less capped until the dry line. Definitely will be interesting to watch.
Xtreme Weather
Member
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Does anyone know what the TORCON is for North Ga
Wow, definitely a dry slug. All clouds have just evaporated here in southern Talladega county.
Last I heard it was a 6.
Phillip l
Member
WSB is showing things relatively quiet until about 10. They’re leaning toward a fairly substantial line entering ga around 10, Atlanta around midnight, and my area about 2am, crap.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm starting to have thoughts that this should not have been upgraded to a MDT, the performance of these cells thus far is pretty lackluster to say the least in comparison to what could have happened and they've grown upscale into a linear mess in a hurry
Off topic, sort of, but isn't weather such a fascinating and cool thing to monitor and study?!? Thanks to all of you who are providing valid analysis. Watching this evolution, while maybe frightening and dangerous, is cool nonetheless when considering the power of nature.
I don’t think they should’ve made that tornado watch PDS.
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