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Pattern December to Remember

NoSnowATL said:
Yea I feel like we avg 1 good storm every 5-10 years. I can remember like 5-6 good one in my short 36 years.
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When you look at snow events on a % or return period basis you really start to see how infrequent big events are. I've seen a foot plus in 39 years so my yearly chance is what a little over 5% even 6+ the %chance only gets to around 10-15. Not that great
 
Kirk Mellish had his winter outlook this morning on the radio. Called for a warm December with below rainfall, Avg Jan with below rainfall, Really warm Feb with below rainfall and a cold march with below rainfall. Snow chances will be below avg but cant rule out a freak storm with good timing but is worry about the drought. He thinks it will be bad going into spring.
 
Lickwx said:
While our droughts aren’t typically severe , we are one of the most drought prone areas in the nation, specially north ga/ upstate sc / clt area . Not sure why , wonder if down-sloping and a rain shadow affect of sorts is to blame .View attachment 96618
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Zooming in on that map, I would assume it’s downsloping that increases the frequency in those locations. It even falls off for eastern CLT metro… often times when rain breaks up over the mountains, it will start building back up quickly just east of I-77.
 
SD said:
Solid wedge on the iconView attachment 96620
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If the SE ridge really holds on through mid December as depicted right now, I got a feeling we're going to be seeing a lot of days of this right here. Those east of the Apps better get ready for a lot of cloudy 40 degree days mixed in with the 60's and 70's. West of the Apps looks like they're going to be baking for at least 2 weeks right now.
 
SD said:
I just noticed the euro actually has 3 rain events with the 3rd firing up at D10. Wouldn't erase the dry anomalies but would certainly help recharge the water table and stream flows. This would likely be the highest 10 day rain totals for a good part of the state since probably early augustView attachment 96608
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12Z GFS bringing the goods for drought relief
 
nice setup For elevated thunderstorms on top of the wedge on the icon, but man it looks like the GFS now with a full on raging dumpster fire pattern E5C63D4E-C025-40FE-8F29-3E32A7B4E9BA.pngAB47D0ED-DB28-4CBF-8688-AEE6C25B94FA.png423E284E-5B28-4799-B607-A21F78F37126.png105EA773-6A34-4AFF-9DD4-E03F4FC3739C.pngD6487691-E0CF-424B-B186-CF4DE2A474E1.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
nice setup For elevated thunderstorms on top of the wedge on the icon, but man it looks like the GFS now with a full on raging dumpster fire pattern View attachment 96621View attachment 96625View attachment 96622View attachment 96623View attachment 96624
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It’s been showing this for a while now there shouldn’t be much shock .. once we actually get to those days it’ll be interesting to feel but this isn’t shocking as it’s had the SER going flame on for like a week now
 
December's starting off with an insame temperature here (well into the double digits) and the next several days will be well above average

Will need one heck of an extended cold blast to bring the average back below normal for the month.
 
The good news is for a cold and snow lovers is that there’s a whole two months of winter for this pattern to flip. The bad news is in typical la Niña‘s the second half of winter isn’t favorable for winter weather.
 
Hoping for a repeat of 1984-5, when ENSO was very similar:

Nov of 1984 was mild in most of the central US and Maine but quite cold in the SE/lower MA states, very similar to Nov of 2021:C764E260-34F8-467F-9431-0D7C330062A4.png

Dec of 1984 was way AN in the E US due largely to MC dominant MJO and we’re very likely headed to a similarly very mild Dec of 2021:

B3B1421C-B004-4F1E-92CE-B85F3A5DC137.png

Here’s the historic Jan of 1985, which turned sharply colder as the MJO rotated to the cold/left side:

1518AD01-D4B2-4F11-AFD8-E251928331D0.png

Here’s to hoping for a January of 1985 this January (again the ENSO is similar and the MJO will hopefully be similar)!
 
Webberweather53 said:
All 3 major ensembles 5-day mean temperature anomalies through mid-Dec

?????

1639677600-CTunnujstx4.png

1639699200-56N2PDEhjyI.png


1639699200-445sAA6GNeo.png
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That is butt ugly!
 
GaWx said:
I should add that quite likely Dec of 2021 will be significantly warmer than November of 2021 in absolute temperatures. The same was the case in Nov/Dec of 1984. Then came January of 1985 and its super cold.
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Big difference between this year and 1984-85 is that there are no signs of a big stratospheric warming event on the horizon. The one in Dec 1984 was one of the strongest ever observed and sent the polar vortex tumbling into eastern N America. Seems like a rather extreme scenario to hope for
 
Webberweather53 said:
Big difference between this year and 1984-85 is that there are no signs of a big stratospheric warming event on the horizon. The one in Dec 1984 was one of the strongest ever observed and sent the polar vortex tumbling into eastern N America. Seems like a rather extreme scenario to hope for
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It is a very extreme scenario to hope for no doubt. But at least ENSO is similar and the MJO may be in cold phases later this month. Also, didn’t Bastardi recently claim a new SSW is on the way this month? He’s an overhyping weenie of course and always looks ahead when it is mild in winter. But might he be right about a new SSW?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Big difference between this year and 1984-85 is that there are no signs of a big stratospheric warming event on the horizon. The one in Dec 1984 was one of the strongest ever observed and sent the polar vortex tumbling into eastern N America. Seems like a rather extreme scenario to hope for
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That winter 84. 85 is about a once lifetime event to be honest … remember that winter really well. Went from 70s December here to minus 10 middle January with bout total 35 inches snow all total here west Tennessee
 
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