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Pattern December to Remember

Stephenb888 said:
Can someone explain the difference between the GFS and the GEFS models?

when does the euro come out again?
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GFS is an operational model and just shows one possible scenario the GEFS is the same model but alters initial conditions slightly and runs many times to show the different possible scenarios that could happen in the future. Usually ensembles (GEFS) are much more reliable to go off of because of the amount of times it goes through the different scenarios instead of just the operational which is just one model iteration and those are usually much more volatile in their solutions
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Don’t think CMC is cold biased as it recently showed very warm conditions like the gfs what the cmc is showing is the potential that this pattern brings in being able to dump serious cold our way and the quick changes in operationals shows how delicate the pattern is as this is what we talk about with the “windshield wiper” effect on models this should continue until all the models settle in on one solution
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The CMC ensemble is definitely strongly cold biased. That doesn’t mean it can’t get it right once in awhile. But if you look at heating degree days for CMC ens vs other two, it is much colder than both of the others nearly all of the time and verifies quite a bit too cold a large majority of the time. OTOH, the GEFS had been slightly warm biased recently in the E US. The EE has been closest to reality lately.
 
The Euro brings in the Western Cold dump. Looks like the GFS. Not enough time for the ridge to build on the NW coast of the US and Canada. Lets see what the EPS brings.ecmwf_z500a_namer_9 (1).png
 
GaWx said:
The CMC ensemble is definitely strongly cold biased. That doesn’t mean it can’t get it right once in awhile. But if you look at heating degree days for CMC ens vs other two, it is much colder than both of the others nearly all of the time and verifies quite a bit too cold a large majority of the time.
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Yes I should have been more clear as I meant that specific run is certainly a thing that could happen as models were showing similar scenarios a couple days ago but the legit temperature output of the model is cold biased definitely
 
Faco Thomas said:
The Euro brings in the Western Cold dump. Looks like the GFS. Not enough time for the ridge to build on the NW coast of the US and Canada. Lets see what the EPS brings.View attachment 96183
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Still much improvement from yesterday we will take little wins in the medium range
 
Not a full Western cold dump,but the SE ridge still occurs due to the ridging on the NW coast not building up quick enough. Overall there is no trend that leans towards ether severe cold or long term warmth as of now. Models do overall look better compared to yesterday.

ecmwf_z500a_namer_10 (2).png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yes I should have been more clear as I meant that specific run is certainly a thing that could happen as models were showing similar scenarios a couple days ago but the legit temperature output of the model is cold biased definitely
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I could be wrong and may need to check on this, but I don’t think it is the CMC ens 500 mb pattern being so very far off on average (bias) as it is the 2M temps, themselves. It seems like the CMC tends to produce much colder at 2M for identical 500 mb patterns vs the other ensembles. Again, I need to confirm this is true though.

Edit: I have the perfect source to ask and it is the all-knowing, all-seeing company that begins with an “m”. ?
 
Realistically, for a dominant cold pattern to re-emerge in the E US like we’ve had, we’ll need the about to commence pattern of late this week’s “bad” combo of -PNA, +AO, and +NAO to change back closer to what we’ve had in late November to help deliver its impressive cold.
 
GaWx said:
I could be wrong and may need to check on this, but I don’t think it is the CMC ens 500 mb pattern being so very far off on average (bias) as it is the 2M temps, themselves. It seems like the CMC tends to produce much colder at 2M for identical 500 mb patterns vs the other ensembles. Again, I need to confirm this is true though.

Edit: I have the perfect source to ask and it is the all-knowing, all-seeing company that begins with an “m”. ?
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Cmc is probably up there with the gfs at 500mb but we know it's notoriously cold in CAA situations and radiational cooling situations. On the flip side for much of this cold season so far its had troughing in the west more than the gfs/euro past D5 from what I've seen
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This run is better, but the shallow GOA ridge isn’t good at all View attachment 96184View attachment 96185
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With the pv sitting over Hudson Bay and no blocks on either coast we are just going to see spokes rotate through and go warm, very warm, front, cool/cold, then reboot the cycle. It's not a pattern to get a snow into the SE but it'll be hard to lock in extreme warmth for long durations
 
Also with this look if we can phase anything and bomb it in the lakes/SE Canada you open the door to stringing the pattern out and getting an overrunning ice/snow event. If I lived in Texas, ok, ark, TN I wouldn't hate the look
 
SD said:
Also with this look if we can phase anything and bomb it in the lakes/SE Canada you open the door to stringing the pattern out and getting an overrunning ice/snow event. If I lived in Texas, ok, ark, TN I wouldn't hate the look
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Am I the only one getting sick of Texas having a good pattern? Smh
 
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