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Pattern December to Remember

Myfrotho704_ said:
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The general pattern is roughly the same. The biggest difference appears to be that the blocking out in the north Atlantic is a bit stronger and the ocean storm out in the central Pacific is farther east, which is helping to pump up heights in the west. That's the key for now. The ridge NW of the Aleutians is not in a favorable position for severe cold and storms for us. That really needs to change.
 
Hopefully we can retrograde the Aleutian ridge sometime because if it sticks around then these warmer solutions will start trickling down like they have the last 2-3 days, very La Niña look with no -NAO to stop it, this has been staying in the hour 300s tho so not to worried yetEF0E0804-84C2-4660-8097-B55801CB891D.png6A96F784-479D-40C2-ADBD-F64C4962A0D0.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hopefully we can retrograde the Aleutian ridge sometime because if it sticks around then these warmer solutions will start trickling down like they have the last 2-3 days, very La Niña look with no -NAO to stop it, this has been staying in the hour 300s tho so not to worried yetView attachment 96144View attachment 96145
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If we get a flat aleutian ridge in December, we are fooked lol. More poleward is ideal I believe
 
Mr. Golf said:
If we get a flat aleutian ridge in December, we are fooked lol. More poleward is ideal I believe
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The winter teleconnection that most favors E US cold/troughing is a trough in the longitude of the central and eastern Aleutians. So, I don’t see how an Aleutian ridge can be considered ideal for E US cold lovers. When you say we, I assume you mean E US in general since most active members are there. If you’re talking central US, that’s obviously not going to be the same since it is centered 1,000 or so miles further west.
 
The GEFS still looks great as regards the MJO forecast, itself, for late in the run for E US cold prospects for mid to late December. However, as said before the upcoming GEFS forecasted -PNA/+AO/+NAO combo for later this week will need to largely reverse to give the E US a good shot at cold domination then as the MJO is far from the sole index to be considered. Still hoping that flip will occur by mid-December.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
For some reason I still feel like the GEFS. Will be way different
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Gefs probably has 2 different camps with the colder solution and some western trough solutions, unfortunately it’s a progressive biased model meaning it could probably be leaning towards a EC trough given its faster/less amped issues associated with the progressive bias
 
We’re about to at least put the SER out temporarily due to the Central US trough/ridge behind it, but first there’s wedges A5F8256E-EE91-407E-A485-05AD2CF8A251.png
 
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