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Pattern December to Remember

NickyBGuarantee said:
DT is all in View attachment 96582
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Not saying he'll be wrong but you have to realize these guys that run paid sites have to tell people what they want to hear or they fear they'll lose subscribers. I hope he is right but we've seen these MJO forecasts for a couple years now going to favorable phases and end up staying in the Maritime continent. In other words I'll believe it when I see it when it comes to phase 7, 8 or 1 during winter.
 
I'd like to know DT's reasoning for phase 7 meaning cold for the east. That is not the case according to this:
mjo_T_comp_djf.png
 
Poimen said:
I'd like to know DT's reasoning for phase 7 meaning cold for the east. That is not the case according to this:
mjo_T_comp_djf.png
Click to expand...
I think Webb showed yesterday a December only composite that shows phase 7 in December is actually favorable for cold, However he said that the LaNina would slow the response, which is why he’s leaning toward late December/early January before we see a favorable pattern again
 
Poimen said:
I'd like to know DT's reasoning for phase 7 meaning cold for the east. That is not the case according to this:
mjo_T_comp_djf.png
Click to expand...
The significant cold anomalies don’t appear in the east until phase 8. Phase 7 basically yields a stereotypical La Niña pattern with cold in the northern Rockies + upper Midwest.
 
Chazwin said:
I think Webb showed yesterday a December only composite that shows phase 7 in December is actually favorable for cold, However he said that the LaNina would slow the response, which is why he’s leaning toward late December/early January before we see a favorable pattern again
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There’s no signal in the SE US in the means for phase 7 NDJ. It’s only conducive in the northern plains and Rockies. We’ll have to wait a little longer most likely
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s no signal in the SE US in the means for phase 7 NDJ. It’s only conducive in the northern plains and Rockies. We’ll have to wait a little longer most likely
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Yeah I went back and looked at your earlier post and saw that it was phase 8. I’m still trying to learn more about the different MJO phases and what they mean at certain times of the year
 
0z Euro. Cant access Frzng Rn. This 10;1 Clown shows frzng rn as snow most likely

sn10_acc.us_ma.png


Cold Rain, Any Rain will be welcomed; Bet it shows less qpf as time approaches
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png
 
I just noticed the euro actually has 3 rain events with the 3rd firing up at D10. Wouldn't erase the dry anomalies but would certainly help recharge the water table and stream flows. This would likely be the highest 10 day rain totals for a good part of the state since probably early augustqpf_acc.us_ma (2) (2).png
 
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