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Pattern December to Remember

Just a friendly reminder we have a thread for complaining about the weather, torches, golf, soap opera updates, whatever floats your boat

Misc - 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Well folks, it’s already meteorological fall, the autumnal equinox is nearing, and the first GFS fantasy mountain snow has fallen. Time to transition!
southernwx.com
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro not nearly as excited as the GFS about how intense the SER will be .. similar to the CMC .. GFS is a little too out of hand with things I believe I wonder when it changes it loves to be stubbornly bad
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Yep. Also CAD always over performs. This will not be a top 3 warmest December on record. Logan, I’ll wager 5 cases of good craft beer on this with you. ?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro not nearly as excited as the GFS about how intense the SER will be .. similar to the CMC .. GFS is a little too out of hand with things I believe I wonder when it changes it loves to be stubbornly bad
Click to expand...
Does anyone have accuracy scores for the weather models through 180 hours? I wonder if the GFS is better under 168 hours, maybe?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Unless you were around during the 1960s (even @metwannabe isn't that old) it really didn't snow that much more back in the day, well at least in the last 40-50 years or so.
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Late 70's into the early 80's was full of big storms here....I remember 79 being the first year I can really remember playing in deep snow I was 7, then 1980-1990 was bigtime with 4-5 big events an lots of smaller ones and a few monster ice storms....
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Euro not nearly as excited as the GFS about how intense the SER will be .. similar to the CMC .. GFS is a little too out of hand with things I believe I wonder when it changes it loves to be stubbornly bad
Click to expand...
It's still pretty dominant from D8 or so onward on the eps but the mean does have that flattening around D10ish. The end of the run was kind of encouraging and there were 3 members with sizable snows in the region toward the end but meh so far away
 
weatherfide said:
Does anyone have accuracy scores for the weather models through 180 hours? I wonder if the GFS is better under 168 hours, maybe?
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I’m fairly certain that all models are more accurate the closer in time they are. One thing that I’ve noticed over the years is that the GFS seems to want to gear towards the extremes more than 5-7 days out, especially during the winter. If we’re in a cold pattern it wants to put us all in the deep freezer and if we’re in a warm pattern it wants us to go back into June.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is something we can all get down with ?
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It used to be that plain rain was evil once into met winter. Not anymore! Most want it now. Of course, about the only kind of rain I ever get down here is plain but I digress.

Well, Ryan’s map above tells me the Bleaklies will likely be dominated by bleak. However, I’ll still be looking for a silver lining late Dec and the first half of January as his maps don’t break it down that much.
 
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